On February 5, Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to show a one-sided weakness, continuously refreshing recent lows, completely breaking away from the strong pattern of the year, entering a deep defensive bottoming stage.

Bitcoin fluctuated yesterday and dipped twice, reaching a low of $71,638, currently weakly oscillating around $72,200; Ethereum also dropped sharply to a low of $2,075, rebounding before falling again, currently hovering around $2,130. The market shows a typical weak pattern of **'lower lows and lower highs'**.

1. The core driving logic behind this round of plummet

The core driving force behind this round of decline has fundamentally changed:

1. Macroeconomic Policy Shift

The Fed's hawkish expectation of 'no interest rate cuts in 2026' has completely reversed the loose logic of the early year's rise, leading to indiscriminate selling of global risk assets.

2. Attribute Narrative Switch

In the turbulent market, Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven narrative has temporarily failed, with funds flowing to traditional assets, amplifying the risk asset attributes.

3. Capital Market Collapse

Institutional funds (ETF) have turned from net inflow to net outflow, and the market has lost key buying support; internal leverage liquidation of up to 2 billion dollars has triggered a 'long-killing' crash, exacerbating market collapse.

4. External Environment Suppression

The global anti-inflation process continues, the dollar strengthens, and funds accelerate their return to traditional safe-haven assets; crypto regulation continues to tighten, with the U.S. SEC strengthening tokenized securities supervision and the EU pushing for the clearance of non-compliant platforms, increasing concerns for institutional entry.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) Intraday Trend & Trading Strategy

Bitcoin is once again showing a **'decline – rebound – further decline'** volatility rhythm, with two consecutive daily closes in the red, breaking below the previous fluctuation range (around 74000), indicating a clear downward trend.

The trading volume expanded during the decline from last night to early this morning, indicating that short selling momentum is still being released**, and there are currently no obvious signs of a rebound.

Key Price Level

Core Support (Lifeline): 71500–72000 region (the platform for market initiation in November 2024, strong support consensus)

The gains and losses at this position directly determine whether this decline is a technical deep squat or the beginning of a bear market.

- Next Target After Breaking: If it falls below 71500–72000, look at the psychological level of 70000, and in extreme cases, test the 68000–65000 region.

- Short-term Strong Resistance: 73500–74000 (the lower edge of the previous broken range)

Secondary Strong Resistance: 75500–76000

Operational Thinking

Before a clear stop-loss reversal signal appears at the daily level (such as a long lower shadow hammer line + increased volume), left-side bottom fishing is not recommended.

A more cautious strategy: Short on pressure during rebounds / Wait for the market to establish a clear bottom structure before following on the right side.

3. Ethereum (ETH) Intraday Trend & Trading Strategy

Ethereum is highly correlated with Bitcoin, continuously closing in the red and breaking the critical support at 2200, showing a clear downward trend, with a relatively weaker technical pattern compared to Bitcoin.

After probing around 2075 yesterday, there was a rebound, but it failed to recover the 2200 mark, indicating heavy resistance above and insufficient buying momentum. Prices have completely deviated from the major moving averages, showing a unilateral downward trend.

Key Price Level

- Intraday Weak Support: 2070–2100 (the area of yesterday's low, with limited support strength)

- Key Strong Support: 2000–2050 region (integer mark + important technical level at the weekly level)

- Short-term Resistance: 2200–2220 (the bottom of the previous fluctuation range)

- Key to Reverse the Pattern: Must stabilize above 2300 to initially repair the extremely weak pattern.

Operational Thinking

Consistent with Bitcoin: No clear stop-loss reversal signal has appeared at the daily level, do not engage in left-side bottom fishing.

Priority Strategy: Short on pressure during rebounds / Wait for stabilization signals and confirmation of bottom structures.

Risk Warning

There is a delay in article delivery, and strategy suggestions are for reference only, as the market is constantly changing.

Regardless of how accurate the judgment on the market situation is, it is essential to strictly implement profit-taking and stop-loss strategies to secure gains!