The digital asset market is undergoing a severe shake-up as Bitcoin (BTC) has lost nearly 38% of its value from the all-time high set in October 2025. That's the situation; the price falling below the $80,000 mark is not just a normal correction but reveals deadly structural weaknesses. According to the latest report from Galaxy, we need to prepare for a worse scenario: Bitcoin could fall back to the $58,000 range.
Market structure weakens and lacks supporting news
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, points out that Bitcoin is failing to serve as a debasement hedge while gold and silver are growing strongly. That's the way it is, the absence of leading narratives and supportive news in the short term is increasingly weighing on selling pressure.
Currently, BTC is "struggling" around the ETF funds' cost price (about $76,000). If it cannot maintain this level, the chances of the price drifting towards the liquidity void at $70,000 are extremely high. More seriously, on-chain data shows that when Bitcoin drops more than 40% from its peak, it often tends to fall deeper by up to 50% before truly recovering.
Lessons from historical moving averages
Another concerning technical indicator is that BTC has fallen below the 50-day moving average since November. That's the way it is, in the last three growth cycles, whenever this signal appears, the price tends to be pulled back to the 200-week moving average – currently at the $58,000 mark.
In addition, the "Realized Price" (actual value based on on-chain data) of the entire network is also at the $56,000 range. These are the "magnets" with a huge pull force during long-term declines.
Positive signals for the "diamond hands"
Although the short-term picture is quite gloomy, that's the way it is, there is still a glimmer of hope for long-term investors. Data shows that the profit-taking pressure from long-term holders has begun to wane. After a strong sell-off in 2024 and 2025, the supply from this group is gradually stabilizing.
Theo Alex Thorn, if Bitcoin truly reaches the range of $56,000 - $58,000, these will be the "strong entry points". In the past, those who patiently bought at this price range always achieved massive profits when the growth cycle returned. #Colecolen
Advice for retail investors
In light of the volatile forecasts, you need to pay attention to the following points:
Observe the $70,000 range: This is an important psychological barrier. If this level is lost, the path to $58,000 will be very close.
Capital management discipline: That's the way it is, never use too much leverage during unclear trend phases.
Long-term vision: If you believe in the future of Crypto, deep drops are opportunities to increase the number of coins at a low price.
In summary, the market is in a strict cleansing phase. It is entirely possible for Bitcoin to drop below $60,000 technically, but that is also when the most resilient investors emerge. You should be ready with knowledge and finances to seize the opportunity!
