XRP has experienced a sharp decline, down 24% in the last week as selling pressure increases in the market. This drop places the altcoin in a vulnerable position, breaking the usual recovery pattern seen before.
This ongoing weakness suggests that this correction could change the historical price movement pattern of XRP if demand does not return soon.
The Past of XRP Indicates Recovery Ahead
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) XRP is now approaching the capitulation zone. At this stage, unrealized losses are greater than slight gains across the circulating supply. Historically, such conditions usually reduce the incentive to sell.
Typically, investors stop distributing and start accumulating when prices are discounted, which can help stabilize prices.
However, XRP has not shown clear signs of that shift. Selling pressure remains dominant, preventing NUPL from triggering any significant reversal. As long as accumulation has not replaced the fear-driven outflows, XRP struggles to capitalize on recovery signals as usual, leaving sentiment leaning towards caution.
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On-chain transaction data shows that panic selling continues. In the last week, transactions of XRP conducted at a loss have consistently outnumbered those that generated profits.
On February 2, XRP transaction volume recorded a loss of US$2.51 billion, while profits were only US$567 million. This imbalance highlights the deteriorating confidence as holders prefer to salvage capital amid price declines and overall market weakness.
Transaction volume dominated by losses usually signals fear in the final phase. Although such phases can be a precursor to recovery, they can also deepen declines if left unchecked. XRP's inability to stabilize transaction behavior indicates momentum is still weak, making this asset vulnerable to further declines if sentiment does not improve soon.
Exchange balance data further strengthens the bearish signal. In the last four days, more than 97 million XRP worth US$140 million entered exchange wallets in just three days. An increase in exchange balances generally indicates selling intent, not long-term holding.
This increase reflects the growing fear among XRP holders. As more tokens move to exchanges, selling pressure intensifies. Continuous inflows diminish recovery chances, as increased supply can outweigh short-term demand during times of heightened uncertainty.
The price of XRP has fallen by 24.4% in the last week and is trading around US$1.44 at the time of publication. This asset has lost the US$1.47 support level and is now approaching US$1.37. Wednesday marked the lowest daily close for XRP since November 2024, confirming the weakness of the price structure.
If bearish conditions persist without sufficient buying interest, further declines are very likely. Losing US$1.37 as support could accelerate selling pressure. In such conditions, the price of XRP may drop towards US$1.28 in the coming days, extending the current correction phase.
Recovery is still possible if sentiment turns around. If it manages to reclaim the US$1.58 support level, this will indicate new strength. This move could push XRP back to US$1.70. If it can maintain at that level, bullish confidence could recover and help trim some of the recent losses.