Most people mistakenly believe that "without a surge in altcoins, Bitcoin will not enter a downward trend," but this perception lacks historical and real-world support.
Core fact: The primary driving force behind Bitcoin's decline is the tightening of global liquidity or specific shocks (such as the Mt.Gox collapse or increased regulation), unrelated to whether altcoins surge.
Historical validation:
2010-2011: No altcoin market, BTC dropped from $32 to $2 (a decline of 93%), coinciding with the Federal Reserve tightening liquidity;
2013-2015: Few altcoins, BTC fell from $1,100 to $150 (a decline of 85%), triggered by forced selling due to Mt.Gox's bankruptcy;
Beginning of 2026: BTC dropped from $129,000 to $75,000 (a decline of over 41%), with no collective rally in altcoins, instead, 87% of new coins broke below their issuance price.
Key conclusion: The altcoin season is the result of excess funds spilling over from Bitcoin's bull market, not a prerequisite for the onset of a bear market. Currently, BTC's dominance has been sideways for 730 days at a high level, institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, and liquidity continues to flow out of altcoins, further confirming the logic of "Bitcoin's independent dominant cycle."
Risk warning: When the bull market narrative is prevalent, one must be more wary of Bitcoin's independent downside risk; the laws of supply and demand and liquidity changes are the core signals of a cycle reversal. @小七币圈陪跑专家