🚨 EVERY CYCLE ENDS THE SAME — ONLY THE EXCUSES CHANGE

People keep telling themselves “this time is different.”
It never is.

Yes, crypto can bounce from here.
And sure — a bounce would feel great for sentiment.

But even if it happens, it’s most likely just a macro lower high.

I don’t try to time those bounces anymore.
I’ve tried in the past. Sometimes it worked.
Other times, I got completely rekt.

The structure repeats every cycle:

When BTC breaks below the 50-week moving average,
it moves to the 100-week, spends some time there,
and eventually finds the 200-week moving average.

Every cycle.

Bitcoin topped where it almost always tops — Q4 of the post-halving year.
And since then, people have spent endless hours trying to convince you that it didn’t.

BTC entered a bear market.
And right on cue, the narrative machine turned on.

“Alt season is next.”
“It always happens after BTC tops.”

What those narratives ignore is social interest.

After the 2019 top, there was no real rotation into altcoins either — and that was right before QT ended.

I track social interest in crypto closely.
It’s been trending down since 2021.

There is no wave of new participants entering the market.
No fresh demand for people to sell their altcoins into.

Historically, alt seasons don’t start when interest is falling.
They start after social interest has been rising for a full year.

Not after five years of decline.

So have a real plan for navigating this market.

Because if the altcoins you’re holding drop another 50–80%,
not a single influencer who promoted them will feel any responsibility.

No apologies.
No regret.

You’ll just be left holding the consequences.

I get a lot of hate for saying this.
But an inconvenient truth is still better than a comfortable lie.