According to historical data and market analysis, the Bitcoin (BTC) price often experiences fluctuations around the Chinese Lunar New Year (Spring Festival), commonly referred to by the community as the "Chinese New Year Dump." This may be related to factors such as Asian investors (especially from China) cashing out before the holidays, reduced liquidity, and miner sell-offs. Historical patterns show that prices often decline in the 1-4 weeks leading up to the New Year, but this is not absolute (as seen in the reversal in 2023). I define "before the New Year" as the 30 days prior to the New Year date (approximately 1 month), calculating the percentage change in price (from the beginning to the end), highest/lowest prices, and simple volatility ((highest-lowest)/initial price*100%)

In bear market years (such as 2018 and 2022), the fluctuations before the New Year are amplified, and the declines are steeper.

Exception: The reversal in 2023, possibly due to ETF expectations and institutional entry.

Volatility: average 15-40%, high volatility years (like 2018) over 100%, reflecting holiday liquidity risk.

During the 2026 Spring Festival, the price has currently dropped by 25%. If there are macro improvements (such as interest rate cuts), it may rebound; otherwise, the decline may continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of $68000 #小非农数据不及预期 #以太坊L2如何发展？ #易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 #BTC市场影响分析 $BTC $ETH .