A meme that has recently gone viral on X, evoking mixed feelings: a report from the so-called 'A-share Behavioral Observation Organization' claims that 'the average intelligence level of A-share players is low, but their emotional participation is world-leading.' This remark quickly spread across the square, with self-deprecating retweets and comments everywhere from @cuichenghao7 to @STOCK6688.
I can't help but compare the A-share market with the cryptocurrency market—both are mockingly referred to as 'fields for harvesting leeks.' Which one has a more 'leading' emotional response, and which players are 'smarter'? It's not a simple black-and-white scenario; it's a magnifying glass on human nature in a high-volatility environment. Today, let's conduct an in-depth analysis.
The 'emotional tax' of the A-share market: the pain point for part-time players
Let's first talk about the A-share market—why is it labeled as 'intellectually inferior'? In fact, this is more of a stereotype than a fact. The A-share market is dominated by retail investors, accounting for over 80%, many of whom are office workers, stay-at-home parents, or part-time stock traders. They treat the stock market as a side job, with limited time and energy, unable to monitor and model analysis like professional institutions do 24/7. What’s the result? Decisions are often based on short-term emotions: a policy news article, a popular research report, or a hot topic in a group chat can trigger nationwide FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). The turnover rate averages over 200% annually, leading the world, which amplifies 'irrational' behavior, but does not equate to low intelligence.
From the perspective of behavioral economics, this is a typical example of the 'herding behavior'. Retail investors suffer from severe information asymmetry, making them prone to follow trends and chase highs or lows. In a bull market, everyone is a stock god; in a bear market, everyone curses. The positive side is that this high emotional participation brings market vitality—Chinese investors respond to hot topics (like AI and semiconductors) faster than anywhere else globally, driving rapid growth in certain sectors. But the downside is a high risk of bubbles, leading to dramatic ups and downs. Data shows that the A-share emotional index fluctuates wildly, remaining low since 2022, but once it rebounds, participation explodes instantly.
In simple terms, it's not that players are 'stupid', but rather that the environment dictates this: part-time players are at a disadvantage when playing information wars against professional market makers. The real issue is 'low insight but unusually diligent'—repeated trial and error without reflecting on strategies.
The 'emotional explosion' of the cryptocurrency market: the carnival of full-time gamblers.
In comparison to the cryptocurrency market, emotional participation is not 'leading' but 'explosive'. Cryptocurrency players are younger and more international; many have a tech background and can read white papers, on-chain data, and DeFi protocols. Their intelligence is often not low, and may even be above average—after all, the threshold for understanding code and indicators is higher. However, human weaknesses are infinitely magnified here: the 24/7 market never sleeps, and a single KOL tweet or hacker news can trigger a pump or flash crash. The fear and greed index is updated daily, while FOMO/FUD obliterates all rationality.
The behavior patterns in the cryptocurrency market are more extreme: betting everything on memecoins, high leverage trading, and excessive confidence. Research shows that crypto investors have a stronger gambling tendency than stock players, with daily fluctuations of 20-50% being common, hundredfold increases in bull markets, and drops of more than 90% in bear markets. Compared to the A-share market's 'mandatory off hours' (limited trading time, closed on weekends), the cryptocurrency space is boundless and endless, like a perpetual motion machine. Many people who transitioned from the cryptocurrency market to A-shares exclaim that 'it's much more comfortable'—because they can sleep well without having to wake up in the middle of the night to check the market.
On the positive side: this emotional explosion brings higher alpha opportunities. Hot topics respond the fastest globally, and wealth creation myths emerge overnight. But the risk is a high rate of mental breakdowns, with stories of liquidation appearing endlessly. The cryptocurrency market is not an intelligence tax, but a 'character tax'—patience and risk control determine life and death.
Who is more 'ahead'? Essentially, it is a human nature amplifier.
If forced to compare, the A-share market is the 'side job casino with the highest emotional participation globally': losing slowly but steadily, with policy safety nets and time buffers, suitable for ordinary people to relax and hold long. The cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, is the 'full-time casino with explosive emotional participation globally': losing quickly but exciting, with boundary-less gaming, suitable for high-intensity players.
In my opinion, neither is an intelligence issue, but rather human nature's naked run under uncertainty. Greed, fear, and FOMO are amplified in high-volatility markets. A-share players may seem 'stupid', but they are more grounded; cryptocurrency players may seem 'smart', but they are more easily swayed. The secret to winning is not about intelligence levels, but controlling emotions: choosing the right circles, paying attention to data (like the emotional index), and learning to 'sell high and buy low'.
I've seen too many cases of burning money in the cryptocurrency market and then switching to A-shares in search of stability. Ultimately, investing is a marathon; don't let emotions 'outpace' your capital.