Yuki Rabbit

In the past few days, many people have been asking why BTC has risen?

My understanding is that this wave of increase is more like a result of technical repair, emotional recovery, and short covering rather than a sudden appearance of a super positive factor that could completely change the trend.

I mainly see these reasons:

1. There is significant support around 70k
The market sentiment was weak, and many people were waiting for further declines, but when BTC reached around 70k, it didn't lose control, indicating that there was buying interest at this level.

2. Short covering pushed it up
When the market was originally biased towards bearishness, but the price did not continue to move down, the most likely outcome is short stop-loss and covering.
This is also why the speed of this rebound has been relatively fast.

3. The market has not welcomed any new major bearish factors
Although geopolitical and macro disturbances are still present, there hasn't been a worse shock than before in the short term.
In this situation, the market can easily recover from extreme pessimism.

4. BTC itself has held its ground at a critical position
From the market perspective, this wave is not just a simple spike; it has pushed the price back up to the vicinity of the key resistance zone.
This indicates that short-term initiative has returned to the bulls.

However, my current view remains relatively restrained:

I acknowledge that this wave is strong, but I have not directly defined it as a full-on trend reversal.
Because what is truly more important is not how much it has risen, but whether it can stabilize this rise.

If it just rushes to the resistance level and then drops again, it looks more like a corrective rebound;
If it can continue to hold after a pullback, then it would be more deserving of a positive outlook.

So, regarding this wave of BTC rise, I prefer to understand it as a recovery after a deep drop, short covering, and effective key support. The short-term bias is strong, but it still needs to be observed whether it can maintain this strength.

A few days ago, I had a chat with the curator @CyberCurator7. In an era where AI tools are blooming everywhere, he is a creator focusing on Douyin's self-media. His videos, whether in script quality or editing rhythm, I believe everyone who watches will feel professional and comfortable.

So he created a highly personalized product that fits his workflow: using OpenClaw to automatically help him choose topics, most of the video materials generated by AI, scripts and storyboards are first completed by AI in draft form, and then he tweaks them; he records the voiceover himself, and still controls the editing by hand. This way, the most time-consuming and labor-intensive steps of 'material screening' and 'preliminary planning' are significantly cut down, and the overall production efficiency has noticeably improved.

Not only that, but he also tracks the traffic of published videos, deciding whether to invest in promotion based on real data, how much to invest, and how to optimize and iterate the next video.

I think it’s quite good after listening.

Now, many people in the market are 'manually crafting' AI websites or tools: part of them for personal use, letting AI help them make money; another part wants to package it and sell it to others. Ideas are varied, but in the end, very few truly run smoothly and generate stable value.

Whether creating tools to replace repetitive, complex, and boring work or turning them into sellable services based on the market, the premise is the same—first ask yourself three questions:

1. Am I willing to pay for this service?
2. Who exactly are the target users? Which specific group/track are they in?
3. Whose money do I actually want to earn?

If you can't even figure these out, why would others pay? How can you make AI truly maximize its work for you, instead of the other way around where you end up working for AI?

First, make yourself the one who earns more after being liberated by AI, then sell this 'liberated' methodology. What others are buying is not the tool, but the growth curve similar to yours.

In other words, first, use it intensively for yourself, solve your most painful links, and show ROI; once the process is validated, then consider productization and sell it to 'those who are most similar to yourself.' This way, AI can truly help you amplify your income, and it’s also easier to find users who are genuinely willing to pay.

It seems that this press conference mainly focuses on the conflict between the United States and Iran, and the 'deadline' set by Trump for Tehran—he also made tough comments yesterday during the White House Easter event, stating that Iran must agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by local Tuesday (which is Wednesday morning here), or it will be 'another story.' ABC News's live report also mentioned that Iran just rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States, and the U.S. military boasted about the operation two days ago that rescued two pilots in Iranian territory, all of which indicate that he is likely to announce tougher military or economic measures at the press conference.
My speculation:

1. Escalation of verbal threats + new conditions
- Most likely: He will announce a new timetable or conditions (such as 'open the shipping lane within 24 hours') and invite military leaders to the stage to create pressure.
- Market reaction: Oil prices will initially surge, safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries) will strengthen, and futures will be under pressure before the U.S. stock market opens, especially high-beta tech stocks.

2. Announcement of substantial actions or drills
- If he announces that combat groups or special forces have entered the 'final deployment' stage, the volatility will be greater, and energy and defense stocks may rise, while Asian and European stock futures may initially fall.
- Attention: Naval movements near the Strait of Hormuz, actions against Iranian energy facilities.

3. Unexpected easing (lowest probability)
- This would only happen if he has new negotiation achievements in hand, such as Iran being willing to discuss a safe corridor; judging from the current reports rejecting the ceasefire, the chances are low, but if it happens, the market would instantly turn risk-on.

- Key focus on three variables: Hormuz (shipping/oil prices), follow-up on rescue operations (which may lead to new actions against Iran), and Iran's response to the 'deadline.'
- Position management: Confirm stop-loss and protective hedges are in place, especially for tech longs; observe WTI/Brent, VIX futures, and gold reactions.

Why has the Qingming period's crypto timeline suddenly become so 'cold that it sweats'?
This weekend, what went viral was not a new project, but a sense of 'nothing happened' emptiness—Twitter repeated existing narratives, Cryption had no decent new proposals, and the on-chain data for the main market plummeted almost in a straight line, even the usually noisy OpenClaw topic has slowed down.

1. Supply-side vacuum: Information density halved by the holiday.
2. Demand-side diversion: Friend circles have moved offline.
3. Narrative inflection point: Low heat ≠ low value.

So what should we do?
1) Take advantage of the off-season to supplement information: Organize the Reddit / Farcaster / Discord channels that we haven't had time to dig into and create a 'backup content pool'.
2) Turn experiences into content assets: Write an article titled 'What experiments I conducted on OpenClaw this week' to stake a claim for the next wave of interest.
3) Use data to record the cold scene: Create a line chart of 'daily Twitter post counts, on-chain activity, popular keywords' to distinguish between structural cooling and short-term vacuum.

The quietness of the Qingming period is not a conclusion; it only serves as a reminder: those who are prepared can accumulate advantages even during a vacuum period.

Small profit!

【Why do most people miss out on the era's dividends?】

1️⃣ Insufficient information filtering ability: Truly valuable signals are often hidden in policy drafts, financial report footnotes, and overseas regulatory meeting minutes; when hot topics trend, excess returns have already been consumed by early birds.

2️⃣ Heavy path dependence: The successful formula from the previous cycle will fail in the next cycle. Those who seize the dividends are often willing to cross disciplines and industries, breaking down and reorganizing old skills.

3️⃣ Imbalanced risk budget: People say they are willing to take risks, but in reality, they are not even willing to spend 5% of their time and funds on trial and error. Without multiple small experiments, it is impossible to establish a judgment sample for new paradigms.

4️⃣ The ability stack does not compound: Focusing only on short-term performance rather than accumulating "transferable skills" (analysis, writing, resource integration). Thus, even if one occasionally rides the wave, it is impossible to sustain in the next wave.

5️⃣ Self-narrative constrains action: Either overly romantic (waiting for the perfect moment) or overly pessimistic (feeling they lack resources), thereby missing controllable variables.

**Action suggestions**: Build a layered information input system, force yourself to step out of your comfort zone once a year, set up a clear trial and error fund, treat foundational skills as a long-term investment, and record all judgment criteria. The essence of the era's dividends is not "luck" but the compounding of cognition and ability accumulated two or three cycles in advance.

【AI Compliance and Dual Pressure from Capital】

1️⃣ A Los Angeles jury ruled that Meta and Google must be held accountable for “addictive” product designs that harm teenagers. Although the compensation is only $6 million, the focus has shifted from content regulation to interface/algorithm design, making Section 230 no longer an all-encompassing shield. Next, states and school districts will replicate the same approach, using the platform's infinite scrolling, push notifications, and teenage modes as part of the evidence chain.

2️⃣ The Baltimore city government sued xAI, claiming that Grok generated 3 million explicit images in 11 days, with over 23,000 involving children, and requested the court to compel xAI to modify the model's default capabilities. For the first time, local governments are bringing the “realistic deepfake” of generative AI to court, quickly expanding the regulatory boundaries.

3️⃣ Meanwhile, the capital side is still taking risks: it is reported that Reflection AI, in which Nvidia has a stake, raised $2.5 billion at a valuation of $25 billion. The high price indicates that the market still craves high-performance model infrastructure, but if it cannot provide enterprise-level cash flow within 12-18 months, such projects may also face valuation adjustments.

**My Judgment**: AI companies must now submit two reports simultaneously—products must have verifiable safety defaults and anti-addiction logic, while commercially they must prove self-sustaining cash flow. Failing to address either leg could result in lawsuits or market corrections.

【Macro Sketch】The G7 meeting is held at a monastery on the outskirts of Paris, yet it puts "anxiety over U.S. policy" on the table. Europe wants to ask two questions:

1. **Iran Line**: The Strait of Hormuz is choked, 20% of global maritime crude oil is stuck, what is the next step for the U.S., escort or escalate the conflict? If there are no answers, the EU may establish its own escort mechanism and impose a new round of sanctions against Iran, which might keep oil prices strong in the second quarter.

2. **Ukraine Line**: Allies worry that Washington, for the midterm elections, will push Kyiv towards a "bad deal." France and Germany have already stated: they would rather continue to intensify sanctions and military aid than accept a plan that exchanges time for peace.

Meanwhile, Chinese regulators are brewing plans to relax the shareholding limit for major shareholders of commercial banks, inviting long-term funds such as insurance capital and local financial holding companies to replenish regional banks. I tend to view this as a compromise that acknowledges the capital shortfall—if paired with a transparent mechanism for equity entry/exit, it might alleviate local financial pressure; if it merely allows shadow state-owned assets to increase their holdings, it will only postpone a crisis.

**Trading Strategy**: Short-term focus on the fluctuations in energy and shipping chains; medium-term attention to re-rating opportunities for onshore/offshore bank stocks, while screening for insurance capital/AMCs that truly have capital replenishment capabilities.

Just after sending it, you started the market

What do you mean, Trump?

Today I did a high-stakes short trade and made 264u

Immediately closed it, and now it looks like it's going up again, looking for another opportunity to short

I estimate it will drop back to 6w, then it will keep oscillating around 6-7

The recent drop in gold has awakened the "blind bullishness"

Today's drop in gold is truly typical.
Just a couple of days ago, everyone was saying, "Gold will only go up," and then the market suddenly turned and gave a strong pullback.

What struck me the most this time is not the magnitude of the drop, but the rhythm:
When opinions are too uniform and positions are too crowded, prices often first attack the most consensus direction.

My current thought is very simple:
Long-term logic can still be considered, but the short-term has already entered a high volatility phase.
At this time, holding on stubbornly is not called faith; many times, it's just emotions.

So today I didn't rush to catch the bottom, but waited for three signals:
1) Is there a volume increase to stop the decline?
2) Can it return to the key position?
3) Is there sustainability in the rebound?

Doing fewer emotional trades may be more important than capturing an additional profit segment.
(Only recording personal market observations, not constituting investment advice)

#Gold #Macroeconomics #MarketReview #TradingThoughts #RiskManagement

#OpenClaw #StopSlop
AI writing is not about grammar, but about flavor. I put the Stop Slop Filter into all long-form processes, first passing it through a tone filter before posting on Binance Square.
The first layer of checks is the vocabulary. Any clichés like “in this rapidly changing era” or “worth our consideration” are directly removed. Leaving blank is better than empty words.
The second layer of checks is the structure. If I see “not X, but Y” or “let’s take a look,” it gets sent back for a rewrite. Each paragraph must have someone doing something, taking action.
The third layer of checks is the rhythm. If three sentences are of the same length, they are split up, alternating long and short. Readers can sense whether it’s genuine writing or patchwork.

#OpenClaw #Multi-Platform Bot
A bot that supports Telegram, Discord, and WeChat for Work at the same time, now that's like an official product. The core is to consolidate the channel adapters into a message bus, with the rest being deployment details.
First, clarify the message flow: the entry point is the channel webhook, which goes into the readyclaw session and then flows to the same policy. All channels share the same stack to connect topics from Discord in Telegram.
Then treat permissions as a product. WeChat for Work requires compliance approval, Discord allows everyone to mention, and Telegram is suitable for customer service. Write the modes into the config, and you can switch on the same day.
Finally, don't forget to settle accounts. Each channel marks a cost center, and at the end of the month, use the Session Token Meter to reconcile with the channel managers. Whoever consumes more tokens pays the bill.

#OpenClaw #Bot Operation
Don't talk about Bot profitability without counting tokens. I connect the Session Token Meter to all official bot instances, keeping an eye on every session's tokens in/out, average response time, message density, cost, and experience at a glance.
The first thing is to create records by session. Write the session_id, group/private chat source, and bound package in the same line, and then stuff it into the dashboard. This way you can see which group consumes the most, and which customer is taking advantage of the free quota.
The second thing is to set thresholds. If the token funnel difference exceeds 20%, alert me, and check the model, context window, and cache hit rate one by one. It's better to cut off a group that mocks the robot than to spread the cost across all customers.
The third thing is to make the statistical results public to customers. Let them know why a certain package has increased in price or why we limit prompt length. A transparent meter is actually the best sales script.

【Nasdaq Officially Opens the Floodgates: RWA Transitions from Marginal Narrative to Wall Street Mainstream】
The SEC has approved Nasdaq to directly create 'traditional stocks + tokens' dual-track trading for Russell 1000 components and mainstream index ETFs, with settlement still handled by DTCC. This means traditional finance has completely accepted tokens as conduits rather than adversaries.
My view:
- Regulators are no longer entangled in whether 'tokens are securities', but rather allowing securities to have an additional data form.
- RWA no longer needs to rely on niche chains to tell stories; once Wall Street gets involved, liquidity and compliance will be in place all at once.
- The real competition lies in 'who can migrate the funding paths of TradFi onto the chain', rather than competing over AMM/APY.
Therefore, I am now heavily focusing on: assets on chains that can directly connect to custodians like Binance, Coinbase, Circle, Sygnum; middleware that can bridge traditional brokerage APIs and on-chain wallets; and infrastructure for risk control and settlement surrounding Tokenized Treasury and Tokenized Equities.
Who do you think is most qualified to become the Coinbase of 'TradFi On-chain'?
#RWA #Nasdaq #TradFiOnChain

【Samsung 110 trillion won gamble】The real competitor in the AI industry is not the competition, but rather 'humans becoming increasingly lazy'.
Samsung's capital expenditure in 2026 will exceed 110 trillion won (73.2 billion USD), all invested in HBM, advanced manufacturing, and AI-specific memory; Musk has publicly stated that Tesla / SpaceX will continue to buy NVIDIA GPUs aggressively. This indicates a fact: AI is not for 'a utopia towards AGI', but to satisfy humanity's instinct to be lazy.
I see the same trend in the content industry: everyone feels that the pieces written by AI are too 'robotic', so they desperately seek techniques to eliminate this taste. The ability to stop slop, this 'anti-AI flavor' capability, is the second curve brought about by laziness.
My judgment:
1. The CapEx for AI chips will continue to expand until someone finds a more efficient 'de-flavoring + multimodal' solution.
2. The winners in the content industry will not be 'the ones who write the most', but rather 'the ones who make AI obedient and write the most like a real person'.
What 'robotic habits' do you most want AI to change?
#AIchips #StopSlop #Laziness is the primary productivity

【Middle East Energy War Enters Normalcy】The drop in oil prices is just an illusion; traders must either actively reduce leverage or be forcibly liquidated by the market.
Israel bombed Iran's South Pars gas field into a sea of fire early in the morning, and Iran immediately targeted Qatar and Saudi Arabia's LNG hub with missiles. As the Strait of Hormuz turns into a geopolitical powder keg, 20% of the world's crude oil and 25% of natural gas are on the negotiation table. Rather than fantasizing that 'supply will quickly recover', it is better to admit: energy has already been weaponized.
My practical approach:
- Directly lower the margin for all positions with energy correlation >0.5; it’s better to miss a market movement than to face a liquidation in a black swan event.
- The structural surge in crude oil and natural gas is instead a stop-loss signal for short-term inflation trades.
- In the crypto market, stop talking about 'safe havens'; the return of the dollar and high-yield U.S. Treasuries are the winners of this round of geopolitical fluctuations.
How do you plan to install a 'oil price' safety belt on your positions?
#MiddleEastSituation #EnergyCrisis #TradingControlRisk

March 12 Afternoon Quick Read:
1. The Malaysian Ringgit continues to strengthen— the low of 3.5680 has become a thing of the past, now at 3.0870, importers can breathe a sigh of relief, while exporters need to quickly hedge their positions.
2. Iran has tied ceasefire conditions to the US and Israel's 'permanent halt', the oil market is temporarily stable but could flare up again at any time.

Tech/AI Sector:
- Gulf countries are stacking AI computing power in the desert, but the war has exposed the vulnerabilities of data centers, electricity, and undersea cables, making redundancy and sovereign clouds a priority.
- Kredivo acquires Vietnamese neobank Timo, aiming to package 'buy now, pay later + banking services', a new competitive axis in Southeast Asian fintech has emerged.

Crypto News:
- The Chair of the US FDIC reiterated that the GENIUS Act will not provide deposit insurance for stablecoins, and the Republican party is using an anti-CBDC stance to stall the housing bill, increasing regulatory uncertainty.
- BTC remains around $69,800, ETH at $2,045, and news of the South Korean government selling off $21.5 million to recover BTC serves as a reminder: official sell-offs in the Asian trading session should not be overlooked.

Feel free to chat in the comments: Who will be the first to weave together geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and crypto regulation into a single investment thread?

【03.11 Market Pulse｜10:40 SGT】
① **Macroeconomic Sentiment Rebounds**
- The IEA held a special meeting today to discuss coordinating the release of 300-400 million barrels of strategic reserves to fully resolve the transportation bottlenecks caused by the Iran conflict.
- Oil prices fell from the weekend panic high of $120 back to the $82-$86 range, with WTI down about 3% on the day.
- Risk assets have since recovered: Nikkei 225 +1.36%, Kospi +3.2%, Hang Seng +0.43%, as the market views the impact of the "energy tax" on consumption as manageable.

② **BTC Becomes a Safe Haven for Funds Again**
- Boosted by cooling oil prices and net inflows into ETFs, BTC surged to $71.3K, up 3.2% in 24h, with CoinDesk 20 rising in tandem.
- Crypto infrastructure stocks like Circle (CRCL), BitGo (BTGO), and Figure (FIGR) have seen gains nearing triple digits since early March, indicating that institutions are seeking hedges against "oil prices-inflation."
- The correlation between BTC and software stock ETFs (IGV) continues to decline, with short-term prospects for independence from fluctuations in the US tech sector.

③ **On-Chain Risk Control Reminder**
- Aave was temporarily undervalued by about 2.85% in the CAPO risk oracle due to wstETH, leading to ~$27M in liquidations within 24h, with Liquidators profiting ~499 ETH.
- Chaos Labs indicated there are no bad debts and affected users will be compensated, but this incident exposed the risk of "staked yield assets + multi-layer pricing" when parameters are not synchronized in a timely manner.
- It is recommended to review the oracle configurations, collateral caps, and control script update rhythms of one's own positions to avoid similar tail events.

——
🎯 **Trading Tips**: The macro side’s "supply shock" has temporarily eased, with beta funds flowing back; however, strategies still need to be paired with a DeFi risk control list, maintaining a three-line monitoring of oil prices, military conflicts, and pricing parameters to achieve balance between offense and defense.

#BTC #DeFi #Macro #CryptoInsights

Today while browsing openclaw and watching the market, the intuitive feeling is that "the tension has not dissipated, but the market wants to catch its breath." The war in the Middle East is still ongoing, but oil prices have jumped from 120 dollars to over 80, causing US stocks and ASX, these risk assets, to immediately loosen up. The ASX200 rose by 1.5% in the morning, feeling like capital is betting on "the worst scenario has temporarily come to an end." However, when I think of NAB shouting: as long as oil prices linger a bit longer, inflation could return to 5%+, I still dare not remove my defensive line.

The tech sector is more realistic. WiseTech directly announced the layoff of 2,000 people over two years, just to "stop writing code by hand," as generative tools take over everything; this completely aligns with the industry atmosphere I've recently observed—everyone talks about embracing AI, but in practice, they are first cutting people to free up budgets. OpenAI is also testing ads in ChatGPT, in the future, "free use" will probably mean "paying with conversation privacy," and once user experience is interrupted by commercialization, public opinion may explode once more.

The sentiment in the crypto market has rebounded first. Trump's statement "the Iran war may end soon" has brought BTC back up to 69K and ETH above 2K. Even the volume on Japan's bitFlyer surged to twice that of Binance and Coinbase—East Asian retail investors are really bold. I just prefer to consider this wave as a "repair," not a "confirmation of a new bull market," and I still need to leave space for the next geopolitical surprises.

#Macro #AI #Bitcoin #CryptoDiary #YukiNote