Yuki Rabbit

Happy Children's Day

When to go short and catch a dip? I'm looking to open a short position.

Celebrating the third birthday of web3

Based on the BTC price of the year, let's calculate the value of the 10,000 BTC used to buy 2 pizzas back in the day for each Bitcoin Pizza Day 🍕, and how many pizzas that could buy now.

Assumption: Average price for a regular pizza is $10 each.

In 2010, spending 10,000 BTC only got you 2 pizzas.

By 2025, the same 10,000 BTC could get you 110 million pizzas;

Every year as we approach Pizza Day, the contrast gets more outrageous, making it a nostalgic and pivotal moment for the crypto community.

Every 4 years, we experience a bull-bear cycle, and Pizza Day typically falls in the 'mid-cycle bull market post-halving.'

So, what will the price be on this day in 2026?

In the AI era, it's not AI that's replacing people; it's those "unwilling to evolve" that are getting left behind.

A few days ago, I was chatting with a buddy from an exchange, and he mentioned that there are still a lot of folks in his company who "can't use AI." But upon closer inspection, it’s not that they can’t; it’s that they refuse to accept it— the AI era is already here.

After we launched on OpenClaw, we quickly "optimized" a lot of those who were resistant to changing their way of working. It’s not that the company is ruthless; it’s just that the market is even more ruthless.

I came across a saying that really hit home: AI has lowered the technical barrier, allowing those who couldn't do things before to now create value with AI.
Yet, there are still many people grumbling: "Why is AI replacing regular jobs first? Shouldn't it tackle the high-risk jobs first?"

This victim mentality essentially reveals that their mindset hasn’t evolved.
When Jensen Huang was asked by a student, "Will AI take away jobs from lawyers and accountants?" he bluntly replied: Every job will.

Will using AI make you lazier?
No, it’ll just make you busier.
Busy creating more value, busy doing those high-level tasks you didn’t have time for before, busy leveraging AI as your multiplier.

Many folks are reluctant to learn, and their excuses sound clever: "AI is updating all the time, so what’s the point of learning?"

Translated, that means—lazy, unwilling to try new things.
These days, many companies are providing employees with real opportunities to learn models, create products, and generate content, which in the past would have required personal investment of time and money to gain experience through trial and error.

The company is putting opportunities right in front of you; if you’re not hustling to learn, what are you doing?

The AI era is indeed brutal, but it’s also unprecedentedly fair:
In the past, it was about background, education, and resources; now it’s about willingness to learn and execution.

Those willing to evolve will see AI as a super amplifier;
Those unwilling to evolve will find themselves outpaced by ordinary people who are eager to use AI.

Bottom line: the times won’t wait for anyone.

Elon pulled another big move yesterday 😭
He officially announced the dissolution of xAI! It's not a shutdown; it's fully merging with SpaceX, rebranding as SpaceXAI, and from now on, Grok will be under the SpaceX banner.

Is this guy really trying to shove AI into rockets? With not enough power and cooling issues on Earth, why not just set up data centers in space? Starlink + solar power + low gravity, that's some next-level thinking.

He just fully acquired it in February, and within 3 months, he dismantled the independent company. All 11 co-founders bailed, and the 220,000 GPUs from Colossus 1 are being rented out to Anthropic to rake in profits... that’s some serious execution, wow.

For regular users, Grok will still be functional in the short term; in the long run, who knows, we might actually see something as sci-fi as 'space AI'.

Elon is really looking to streamline his empire—rockets + satellites + AI + X, all in one.

Is this integration a stroke of genius or just another pie-in-the-sky idea?

In the past few days, many people have been asking why BTC has risen?

My understanding is that this wave of increase is more like a result of technical repair, emotional recovery, and short covering rather than a sudden appearance of a super positive factor that could completely change the trend.

I mainly see these reasons:

1. There is significant support around 70k
The market sentiment was weak, and many people were waiting for further declines, but when BTC reached around 70k, it didn't lose control, indicating that there was buying interest at this level.

2. Short covering pushed it up
When the market was originally biased towards bearishness, but the price did not continue to move down, the most likely outcome is short stop-loss and covering.
This is also why the speed of this rebound has been relatively fast.

3. The market has not welcomed any new major bearish factors
Although geopolitical and macro disturbances are still present, there hasn't been a worse shock than before in the short term.
In this situation, the market can easily recover from extreme pessimism.

4. BTC itself has held its ground at a critical position
From the market perspective, this wave is not just a simple spike; it has pushed the price back up to the vicinity of the key resistance zone.
This indicates that short-term initiative has returned to the bulls.

However, my current view remains relatively restrained:

I acknowledge that this wave is strong, but I have not directly defined it as a full-on trend reversal.
Because what is truly more important is not how much it has risen, but whether it can stabilize this rise.

If it just rushes to the resistance level and then drops again, it looks more like a corrective rebound;
If it can continue to hold after a pullback, then it would be more deserving of a positive outlook.

So, regarding this wave of BTC rise, I prefer to understand it as a recovery after a deep drop, short covering, and effective key support. The short-term bias is strong, but it still needs to be observed whether it can maintain this strength.

A few days ago, I had a chat with the curator @CyberCurator7. In an era where AI tools are blooming everywhere, he is a creator focusing on Douyin's self-media. His videos, whether in script quality or editing rhythm, I believe everyone who watches will feel professional and comfortable.

So he created a highly personalized product that fits his workflow: using OpenClaw to automatically help him choose topics, most of the video materials generated by AI, scripts and storyboards are first completed by AI in draft form, and then he tweaks them; he records the voiceover himself, and still controls the editing by hand. This way, the most time-consuming and labor-intensive steps of 'material screening' and 'preliminary planning' are significantly cut down, and the overall production efficiency has noticeably improved.

Not only that, but he also tracks the traffic of published videos, deciding whether to invest in promotion based on real data, how much to invest, and how to optimize and iterate the next video.

I think it’s quite good after listening.

Now, many people in the market are 'manually crafting' AI websites or tools: part of them for personal use, letting AI help them make money; another part wants to package it and sell it to others. Ideas are varied, but in the end, very few truly run smoothly and generate stable value.

Whether creating tools to replace repetitive, complex, and boring work or turning them into sellable services based on the market, the premise is the same—first ask yourself three questions:

1. Am I willing to pay for this service?
2. Who exactly are the target users? Which specific group/track are they in?
3. Whose money do I actually want to earn?

If you can't even figure these out, why would others pay? How can you make AI truly maximize its work for you, instead of the other way around where you end up working for AI?

First, make yourself the one who earns more after being liberated by AI, then sell this 'liberated' methodology. What others are buying is not the tool, but the growth curve similar to yours.

In other words, first, use it intensively for yourself, solve your most painful links, and show ROI; once the process is validated, then consider productization and sell it to 'those who are most similar to yourself.' This way, AI can truly help you amplify your income, and it’s also easier to find users who are genuinely willing to pay.

It seems that this press conference mainly focuses on the conflict between the United States and Iran, and the 'deadline' set by Trump for Tehran—he also made tough comments yesterday during the White House Easter event, stating that Iran must agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by local Tuesday (which is Wednesday morning here), or it will be 'another story.' ABC News's live report also mentioned that Iran just rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States, and the U.S. military boasted about the operation two days ago that rescued two pilots in Iranian territory, all of which indicate that he is likely to announce tougher military or economic measures at the press conference.
My speculation:

1. Escalation of verbal threats + new conditions
- Most likely: He will announce a new timetable or conditions (such as 'open the shipping lane within 24 hours') and invite military leaders to the stage to create pressure.
- Market reaction: Oil prices will initially surge, safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries) will strengthen, and futures will be under pressure before the U.S. stock market opens, especially high-beta tech stocks.

2. Announcement of substantial actions or drills
- If he announces that combat groups or special forces have entered the 'final deployment' stage, the volatility will be greater, and energy and defense stocks may rise, while Asian and European stock futures may initially fall.
- Attention: Naval movements near the Strait of Hormuz, actions against Iranian energy facilities.

3. Unexpected easing (lowest probability)
- This would only happen if he has new negotiation achievements in hand, such as Iran being willing to discuss a safe corridor; judging from the current reports rejecting the ceasefire, the chances are low, but if it happens, the market would instantly turn risk-on.

- Key focus on three variables: Hormuz (shipping/oil prices), follow-up on rescue operations (which may lead to new actions against Iran), and Iran's response to the 'deadline.'
- Position management: Confirm stop-loss and protective hedges are in place, especially for tech longs; observe WTI/Brent, VIX futures, and gold reactions.

Why has the Qingming period's crypto timeline suddenly become so 'cold that it sweats'?
This weekend, what went viral was not a new project, but a sense of 'nothing happened' emptiness—Twitter repeated existing narratives, Cryption had no decent new proposals, and the on-chain data for the main market plummeted almost in a straight line, even the usually noisy OpenClaw topic has slowed down.

1. Supply-side vacuum: Information density halved by the holiday.
2. Demand-side diversion: Friend circles have moved offline.
3. Narrative inflection point: Low heat ≠ low value.

So what should we do?
1) Take advantage of the off-season to supplement information: Organize the Reddit / Farcaster / Discord channels that we haven't had time to dig into and create a 'backup content pool'.
2) Turn experiences into content assets: Write an article titled 'What experiments I conducted on OpenClaw this week' to stake a claim for the next wave of interest.
3) Use data to record the cold scene: Create a line chart of 'daily Twitter post counts, on-chain activity, popular keywords' to distinguish between structural cooling and short-term vacuum.

The quietness of the Qingming period is not a conclusion; it only serves as a reminder: those who are prepared can accumulate advantages even during a vacuum period.

Small profit!

【Why do most people miss out on the era's dividends?】

1️⃣ Insufficient information filtering ability: Truly valuable signals are often hidden in policy drafts, financial report footnotes, and overseas regulatory meeting minutes; when hot topics trend, excess returns have already been consumed by early birds.

2️⃣ Heavy path dependence: The successful formula from the previous cycle will fail in the next cycle. Those who seize the dividends are often willing to cross disciplines and industries, breaking down and reorganizing old skills.

3️⃣ Imbalanced risk budget: People say they are willing to take risks, but in reality, they are not even willing to spend 5% of their time and funds on trial and error. Without multiple small experiments, it is impossible to establish a judgment sample for new paradigms.

4️⃣ The ability stack does not compound: Focusing only on short-term performance rather than accumulating "transferable skills" (analysis, writing, resource integration). Thus, even if one occasionally rides the wave, it is impossible to sustain in the next wave.

5️⃣ Self-narrative constrains action: Either overly romantic (waiting for the perfect moment) or overly pessimistic (feeling they lack resources), thereby missing controllable variables.

**Action suggestions**: Build a layered information input system, force yourself to step out of your comfort zone once a year, set up a clear trial and error fund, treat foundational skills as a long-term investment, and record all judgment criteria. The essence of the era's dividends is not "luck" but the compounding of cognition and ability accumulated two or three cycles in advance.

【AI Compliance and Dual Pressure from Capital】

1️⃣ A Los Angeles jury ruled that Meta and Google must be held accountable for “addictive” product designs that harm teenagers. Although the compensation is only $6 million, the focus has shifted from content regulation to interface/algorithm design, making Section 230 no longer an all-encompassing shield. Next, states and school districts will replicate the same approach, using the platform's infinite scrolling, push notifications, and teenage modes as part of the evidence chain.

2️⃣ The Baltimore city government sued xAI, claiming that Grok generated 3 million explicit images in 11 days, with over 23,000 involving children, and requested the court to compel xAI to modify the model's default capabilities. For the first time, local governments are bringing the “realistic deepfake” of generative AI to court, quickly expanding the regulatory boundaries.

3️⃣ Meanwhile, the capital side is still taking risks: it is reported that Reflection AI, in which Nvidia has a stake, raised $2.5 billion at a valuation of $25 billion. The high price indicates that the market still craves high-performance model infrastructure, but if it cannot provide enterprise-level cash flow within 12-18 months, such projects may also face valuation adjustments.

**My Judgment**: AI companies must now submit two reports simultaneously—products must have verifiable safety defaults and anti-addiction logic, while commercially they must prove self-sustaining cash flow. Failing to address either leg could result in lawsuits or market corrections.

【Macro Sketch】The G7 meeting is held at a monastery on the outskirts of Paris, yet it puts "anxiety over U.S. policy" on the table. Europe wants to ask two questions:

1. **Iran Line**: The Strait of Hormuz is choked, 20% of global maritime crude oil is stuck, what is the next step for the U.S., escort or escalate the conflict? If there are no answers, the EU may establish its own escort mechanism and impose a new round of sanctions against Iran, which might keep oil prices strong in the second quarter.

2. **Ukraine Line**: Allies worry that Washington, for the midterm elections, will push Kyiv towards a "bad deal." France and Germany have already stated: they would rather continue to intensify sanctions and military aid than accept a plan that exchanges time for peace.

Meanwhile, Chinese regulators are brewing plans to relax the shareholding limit for major shareholders of commercial banks, inviting long-term funds such as insurance capital and local financial holding companies to replenish regional banks. I tend to view this as a compromise that acknowledges the capital shortfall—if paired with a transparent mechanism for equity entry/exit, it might alleviate local financial pressure; if it merely allows shadow state-owned assets to increase their holdings, it will only postpone a crisis.

**Trading Strategy**: Short-term focus on the fluctuations in energy and shipping chains; medium-term attention to re-rating opportunities for onshore/offshore bank stocks, while screening for insurance capital/AMCs that truly have capital replenishment capabilities.

Just after sending it, you started the market

What do you mean, Trump?

Today I did a high-stakes short trade and made 264u

Immediately closed it, and now it looks like it's going up again, looking for another opportunity to short

I estimate it will drop back to 6w, then it will keep oscillating around 6-7

The recent drop in gold has awakened the "blind bullishness"

Today's drop in gold is truly typical.
Just a couple of days ago, everyone was saying, "Gold will only go up," and then the market suddenly turned and gave a strong pullback.

What struck me the most this time is not the magnitude of the drop, but the rhythm:
When opinions are too uniform and positions are too crowded, prices often first attack the most consensus direction.

My current thought is very simple:
Long-term logic can still be considered, but the short-term has already entered a high volatility phase.
At this time, holding on stubbornly is not called faith; many times, it's just emotions.

So today I didn't rush to catch the bottom, but waited for three signals:
1) Is there a volume increase to stop the decline?
2) Can it return to the key position?
3) Is there sustainability in the rebound?

Doing fewer emotional trades may be more important than capturing an additional profit segment.
(Only recording personal market observations, not constituting investment advice)

#Gold #Macroeconomics #MarketReview #TradingThoughts #RiskManagement

#OpenClaw #StopSlop
AI writing is not about grammar, but about flavor. I put the Stop Slop Filter into all long-form processes, first passing it through a tone filter before posting on Binance Square.
The first layer of checks is the vocabulary. Any clichés like “in this rapidly changing era” or “worth our consideration” are directly removed. Leaving blank is better than empty words.
The second layer of checks is the structure. If I see “not X, but Y” or “let’s take a look,” it gets sent back for a rewrite. Each paragraph must have someone doing something, taking action.
The third layer of checks is the rhythm. If three sentences are of the same length, they are split up, alternating long and short. Readers can sense whether it’s genuine writing or patchwork.