Bitcoin has entered a critical phase after the recent correction that brought the price down to the region of $70,000. From a macroeconomic perspective, this movement exposes BTC to an increased risk of decline.
Several on-chain and technical indicators are now pointing to a bearish outlook. However, large investors are actively accumulating, seeking to slow down or reverse the developing trend.
Bitcoin loses important on-chain support
Bitcoin fell below the True Market Mean for the first time since September 2023. This indicator reflects the aggregate cost of coins in active circulation. Trading below this level signals a weakening of conviction among participants and indicates a structural change in market behavior.
Losing this support confirms the deterioration observed since the end of November. From a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin is now restricted to a broader appreciation range. The bullish momentum has lost strength, while selling pressure continues to rise across different time frames.
From the bearish perspective, the realized price close to US$ 55,800 represents the historical level where long-term capital starts to flow in again. Conversely, the True Market Mean, around US$ 80,200, has now become resistance. This configuration limits recovery potential and increases the possibility of a new drop.
The macroeconomic perspective of Bitcoin indicates a drop of 37%
This structural fragility coincides with a visible bearish macro scenario in the charts. Bitcoin breaks a head and shoulders pattern that has been forming for months. The setup projects a possible drop of about 37%, targeting US$ 51,511 if fully realized.
The sharp drop of 20% last week anticipated this breakout. Selling pressure accelerated and confirmed the violation of the neckline of the pattern, amplifying the downward movement. Movements of this kind tend to trigger new depreciations as long positions are liquidated.
The next relevant support below US$ 70,000 is at US$ 68,072. Losing this level would validate the bearish projection. A consistent breakout tends to trigger new liquidations, increasing volatility and accelerating movement to even lower values.
BTC whales enter as rescue
Despite the growing pessimistic signals, so-called Bitcoin whales are trying to contain new drops. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC accumulated more than 50,000 BTC in just four days. At current prices, the amount purchased exceeds US$ 3.58 billion.
This movement corresponds to a strategic positioning, not speculative trading. Large investors tend to accumulate in times of fear, especially after sharp corrections. Bitcoin below US$ 75,000 seems to have opened an interesting buying window for long-term operations.
If the buying pace of the whales continues, part of the selling pressure may be absorbed, promoting price stabilization. Historically, this behavior precedes temporary recoveries. However, a lasting impact depends on the broader market sentiment and the reduction of selling by retail investors.
BTC price is close to falling below US$ 70,000
The price of Bitcoin is quoted close to US$ 69,500 at the time of this report, after a weekly drop of 20%. So far, BTC has not closed the daily candle below the psychological support of US$ 70,000. In recent adjustments, this level has acted as a demand zone, becoming essential for short-term stability.
In the short term, the risks of a drop remain high. If there is a breakout below US$ 68,442, selling pressure may intensify. In this scenario, Bitcoin could fall to US$ 65,360. If this region is lost, BTC will be exposed to further depreciation towards US$ 62,893.
On the other hand, accumulation by large investors can influence the price direction. If the support at US$ 70,000 holds, Bitcoin may react and advance to US$ 75,000. If it recovers this level as support, the short-term bearish thesis is invalidated, and a new path towards US$ 80,000 may open if there is an improvement in momentum.
The article Bitcoin below US$ 70,000 facing a 37% drop risk was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.