Solana remains under sustained distribution pressure after a sharp sell-off, with prices forming a descending wedge pattern on the daily time frame. This structure is very similar to the pattern in the previous cycle that preceded significant price increases.
In addition to technical similarities, on-chain valuation metrics also suggest that SOL may be entering a base phase as the downward momentum continues to slow.
Solana Holders Remain Optimistic
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Solana is currently at 0.65, placing SOL in an undervalued condition. This is the lowest level since September 2023 and represents an extreme point in almost the last two and a half years. An MVRV below one indicates that the majority of holders are at a loss, a condition that typically appears at the end of a correction phase, not at the beginning of a new impulsive sell-off.
Historically, selling pressure tends to decrease when prices linger at this level for a long time. With unrealized losses dominating, market participants tend to shift from distribution to a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating prices to return to the average. Situations like this often precede a stabilization phase, although prices can remain volatile in the short term.
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Although there has been a decline, holder behavior continues to show resilience, not capitulation. Interestingly, Solana's realized price remains above the spot price, a configuration that has historically aligned with macro lows. A similar structure also occurred in March 2025, when SOL began to enter the accumulation phase before starting its recovery.
The period was marked by rotation, not a sell-off due to panic.
The latest flow indicates a similar pattern is developing. Since December 2025 until now, investors have accumulated around 5 million SOL, worth US$455 million. Stable accumulation amid this weakness signals strong confidence from major players. Historically, consistent accumulation during corrective phases has supported Solana's trend reversal in the medium term.
SOL is currently trading in the range of US$90, approaching the lower boundary of a descending wedge—the crucial determination zone. A similar setup in early 2025 showed prices holding this area before eventually rising higher, resulting in an expansion of 43%. Current price behavior is also structurally similar to the early phases of that movement.
The current wedge pattern projects a potential increase of up to 31%, with a target towards the area of US$156. However, confirmation remains conditional. The price must bounce back and reclaim US$104 as support for validation of the bullish continuation. If it manages to break through US$122, it will confirm the breakout and reinforce the price movement in line with improving macro signals and on-chain data.
Nevertheless, the risk of a decline remains. If accumulation weakens or reverses, SOL risks falling to US$83. A decisive drop below this level would open up the potential for a decline to US$75 or lower and invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating that the corrective trend is still continuing on a broader scale.