Solana continues to face strong distribution pressure after an intense liquidation, with the price forming a descending wedge pattern on the daily chart. This setup resembles the movement recorded in the previous cycle, which preceded a significant recovery.
In addition to the technical symmetry, on-chain valuation metrics suggest that SOL may be entering a consolidation phase, as the downward momentum continues to decelerate.
Solana investors remain optimistic
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Solana is at 0.65, placing SOL at a level of undervaluation. This is the lowest mark since September 2023 and represents an extreme in nearly two and a half years. An MVRV below one indicates that most investors are at a loss, a situation often associated with corrections in late stages, and not at the beginning of new impulsive declines.
Historically, prolonged maintenance at levels like this reduces selling urgency. With unrealized losses prevailing, participants change their distribution behavior to waiting, anticipating a reversion to the mean. This scenario often precedes stabilization phases, even if the price still exhibits volatility in the short term.
Despite the decline, investor behavior reveals resilience rather than capitulation. Notably, the realized price of Solana remains above the spot value, a configuration that historically coincides with cycle bottoms. The same pattern was recorded in March 2025, when SOL entered an accumulation phase before starting the recovery.
That period was marked by rotation, and not by sales motivated by panic.
Recent movements suggest similar dynamics. From December 2025 to now, investors have purchased about 5 million SOL, valued at $455 million. Consistent absorption during weakness points to conviction among larger participants. Historically, continuous accumulation in correction phases supported the reversal of Solana's medium-term trend.
SOL price aims for long-term breakout
SOL is trading close to $90, near the lower limit of the descending wedge — an important decision zone. A similar pattern was observed in early 2025, when the price defended this region before breaking upwards and recording a 43% expansion. The current movement presents a structure compatible with the early stages of that period.
The current setup points to a potential rise of up to 31%, with a target in the range of $156. However, confirmation depends on the price recovering and retaking $104 as support to validate the positive continuation scenario. If the asset surpasses $122, the breakout will be confirmed and the behavior will align with favorable macroeconomic and on-chain signals.
Despite this, one cannot disregard the risks of decline. If accumulation loses strength or reverses, SOL could drop below the $83 level. A decisive break below this level would open the door to $75 or less and invalidate the bullish thesis, confirming the continuation of the broader corrective trajectory.
The article 'Solana near $90 does not deter long-term investors' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.