🔥🔥🔥Ethereum⚠️ETH⚠️#加密市场回调
$ETH $BNB $BTC #ETH走势分析
📌 1. Current Situation (2026-02-06)
• Current Price: $1800 (24h down 9%)
• Yearly High: 3400 → Retracement 47%
• Trend: One-sided bearish, extreme panic, no rebound volume
📊 2. Future Trend Prediction (by period)
1) Short Term (1-7 days): Continued decline/weak oscillation
• Core Logic: Macro pressure + liquidation cascade + technical breakdown
• Support: 1800→1700→1600 (weekly strong support)
• Resistance: 2000→2100→2200 (strong rebound pressure)
• Conclusion: Do not bottom fish, do not chase long; short at 2000-2100 with light positions, stop loss at 2150
2) Medium Term (2-4 weeks, February): Build a bottom before recovery
• Key Conditions:
◦ BTC stabilizes at 60,000, fear index rebounds, liquidation decreases
◦ ETH volume stabilizes above 2200 + daily long lower shadow + MACD golden cross
• Target: 2400→2600→2800 (restorative rebound, not reversal)
• Risk: If 1600 is lost, look down to 1400-1500
3) Long-Medium Term (3-12 months): Oscillating upwards, aiming for 4000+
• Drivers:
◦ Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle begins (expected mid-2026)
◦ Ethereum Cancun upgrade landing, Layer 2 explosion, institutional accumulation
◦ Post-halving crypto cycle upward
• Target: 4000→5000→6000 (conservative); 7500-10000 (optimistic)
🧩 3. Key Variables (determining direction)
• ✅ Macro: Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, US dollar index, US stock market trends
• ✅ On-chain: Whale accumulation, exchange reserves, active addresses
• ✅ Technical: 2200 (reversal line), 1600 (critical line)
• ✅ Events: Cancun upgrade, regulatory policies, ETF progress
⚠️ 4. Operational Strategy (by position)
• Spot: Build positions in batches at 1600-1700 (total position ≤30%); do not cut losses below 2200
• Contracts: Focus on shorting rebounds, enter at 2000-2100, stop loss at 2150, target 1800-1700
• Discipline: Strict control of leverage, do not bottom fish on the left side, only do right-side confirmations
✅ 5. One-Sentence Summary
Short-term bears dominate, 1600-1700 is the mid-term bottom range; look for recovery after building a bottom in February; long-term bullish with rate cuts and upgrades, target 4000+.#美国政府部分停摆结束
