On February 6, the cryptocurrency market faced the most severe test since the start of this bull market. Bitcoin historically dropped below the psychological threshold of $60,000 in the morning, hitting a low of $59,896, before staging a nearly 10% violent rebound, rising back to around $65,700; Ethereum also plummeted, once piercing below $1,800, with a minimum reaching $1,741.#全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产

This sharp decline was triggered by a quadruple resonance of macro pressures, regulatory concerns, institutional sell-offs, and technical breakdowns. Although there was a retaliatory rebound, the market trend has been fundamentally damaged, and the short-term rebound should be seen as a window for reducing positions and adjusting allocations, rather than a signal of trend reversal.

Latest news: Multiple negative factors combined have triggered a 'perfect storm'

1. The Fed's hawkish expectations continue to ferment

Previously, several Fed officials released strong signals, clearly stating that the anti-inflation task is not completed, with no rate cut plans in the short term, even hinting at maintaining high interest rates for an extended period. The liquidity environment continues to tighten, becoming a core macro suppression factor for the crypto market.

2. Ethereum ETF regulation delay, selling pressure intensifies

The SEC has once again postponed decisions on multiple Ethereum spot ETF applications, deepening the market's concerns about Ethereum's regulatory classification and mainstream financialization process. This has significantly increased selling pressure on Ethereum, causing it to underperform Bitcoin and dragging down overall market sentiment.

3. Institutional funds are withdrawing, diverting to safe-haven assets

After a slight net inflow in Bitcoin spot ETF on Monday, over the next two trading days, a total of more than $800 million has flowed out. The US ETF has turned from net buying to net selling, with institutions significantly reducing risk exposure.

At the same time, the US dollar index is strengthening, increasing the holding cost of crypto assets, while funds continue to flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries, leaving the crypto market lacking effective capital support.

Bitcoin (BTC) Daytime Trend Analysis

Bitcoin's technical patterns have completely broken down, and rebound momentum is insufficient. The 4-hour level has broken the previous key support range of $62000-65000, forming a clear bearish arrangement; the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and prices are running near the lower band, with the rebound not breaking through the middle band resistance. The rebound after the crash has not changed the overall bearish structure.

Key Levels

- Resistance above: Short-term $65700-66000 (current rebound high) → Strong resistance $67000-68000 (previous support turned pressure)

- Support below: Short-term $59800-60000 (intraday low, psychological support) → After breaking down, looking down to $58000-59000 → Strong support at $55000 (previous important low)

Ethereum (ETH) Daytime Trend Analysis

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin down but has shown significantly weaker performance, having diverged from the strong correlation with Bitcoin. After breaking below $2000, it has entered a weak range. The technical outlook is completely bearish; the short-term rebound only stands above the hourly 5/10-day moving averages but has not stabilized above the 20-day moving average, with rebound volume continuously shrinking, leading to weak rebound sustainability and a high probability of returning to a downward oscillation.

Key Levels

- Resistance above: Short-term core $1930-1950 (current rebound high) → Strong resistance $2000-2050 (psychological level + lower edge of previous support)

- Support below: $1820-1800 (last night's low) → $1740-1750 (intraday low) → After breaking down, probing the $1700-1600 range

Important Reminder

There is a delay in article delivery; strategy suggestions are for reference only. Market conditions change rapidly. Regardless of one's assessment of market conditions, it is essential to maintain stop-losses to secure profits and avoid risks.

Long Position Hedging Strategy

Mild Loss

- BTC: $65000-68000 | ETH: $1900-2000

- Operation: Reduce positions by 50% when rebounding to BTC $66000-67000, ETH $1950-2000; set stop-loss for remaining positions below BTC $63000, ETH $1850, exit if broken.

Moderate Loss

- BTC: $68000-72000 | ETH: $2000-2100

- Operation: No averaging down allowed; wait for a second rebound to BTC $68000-69000, ETH $2050-2100 strong resistance zone, reduce positions by 70%; set strict stop-loss for remaining positions below BTC $62000, ETH $1800.

Deep Loss

BTC: >$72000 | ETH: >$2100 Operation:

Priority on preserving capital, refuse to hold losing positions; if the rebound fails to break resistance, directly reduce positions by 80%; extreme stop-loss for remaining positions set below BTC $60000, ETH $1750 to avoid further losses, abandoning the illusion of ‘recovering losses through rebound’.

Core Principles

All strategies prioritize utilizing rebounds to reduce positions and strictly enforce stop-losses to preserve capital, executing resolutely based on individual positions.