INSIGHTER Yi Xi

For years, the Bitcoin power-law model has been one of the market’s favorite long-term frameworks. It predicted a gradually rising price channel where $BTC expands in cycles but never breaks the long-term upward curve. Traders, analysts, and even institutional models referenced it because it seemed to survive every bull and bear market until now.
As Bitcoin moves through another volatile phase, the core question is becoming harder to avoid: How much longer can we rely on the power-law model before we call it invalid?

The biggest concern isn’t short-term volatility Bitcoin has always moved in violent swings. The challenge is structural. The recent deviation from the model’s trend lines has lasted longer than historical norms, which forces analysts to look deeper. Are we dealing with a temporary macro-driven dislocation, or is Bitcoin entering a new market regime where old models lose their predictive power?

Supporters argue the model shouldn’t be judged by month-to-month deviations. Power-law curves are designed for decade-scale movements, and Bitcoin has always wandered outside the band before snapping back with aggressive upside momentum. They point out that long-term demand from ETFs, sovereign interest, and institutional accumulation still broadly aligns with the thesis of exponential monetization over time.

Critics make a different case. They warn that Bitcoin’s market structure is changing too quickly for any static model to stay relevant. Liquidity is deeper, participation is broader, and global macro cycles influence crypto harder than they did in 2015 or 2019. In this environment, a rigid long-term curve may no longer reflect how real capital behaves.

But here’s the real takeaway:
Bitcoin models don’t fail they expire. Every dominant narrative, from stock-to-flow to NVT ratios, eventually loses predictive strength as the asset matures. The power-law model may be approaching that transition, but it’s not invalid just yet. It simply needs context and caution, not blind faith.

As long as Bitcoin continues to produce higher macro lows and deeper global adoption, the long-term exponential thesis remains intact. The model may bend but until Bitcoin structurally breaks away from the multi-cycle trend, the power-law remains one of the clearest big-picture guides we have.

Because Bitcoin has always had one mission:
Break expectations, break models, and then build new ones on top of the ashes.

In a bold leap into the digital-asset world, French banking giant BPCE is preparing to offer cryptocurrency trading to nearly 2 million retail customers across its Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Épargne networks. This marks one of the most significant moves by a European bank toward mainstream crypto integration — signaling just how far digital assets have come in gaining institutional recognition.

BPCE’s decision reflects a simple truth: customers are demanding regulated, secure access to crypto, and they prefer it from trusted financial institutions rather than unfamiliar, volatile platforms.

How BPCE Plans to Deliver Crypto to the Mass Market

The rollout is being driven through BPCE’s subsidiary Hexarq, which recently secured full regulatory approval under France’s digital-asset framework. With this authorization, BPCE can now provide services such as crypto custody, buying, selling, and exchange operations all directly within its banking ecosystem.

By combining traditional banking stability with modern digital-asset capabilities, BPCE aims to make crypto onboarding simple, safe, and understandable for everyday users. For millions of customers, this means the ability to explore digital assets without the complexity, fear, or uncertainty often associated with external crypto exchanges.

For BPCE, the initiative is also strategic: it positions the bank as a forward-thinking financial institution ready to compete in an era where digital finance is rapidly becoming mainstream.

What This Means for Retail Users and the Market
• A Bridge Between TradFi and Crypto: BPCE’s move blends traditional banking with modern digital-asset access, giving crypto legitimacy among mainstream users.
• Easier Access for New Investors: Retail customers who were previously hesitant now have a safe and familiar entry point into crypto.
• Enhanced Security: With a regulated bank offering custody and trading, users gain confidence that their digital assets are handled within a compliant, risk-controlled environment.
• Potential Domino Effect: As one of France’s biggest financial players, BPCE’s move may inspire other European and global banks to follow, accelerating crypto adoption at the institutional level.

A Turning Point for Global Banking

BPCE’s crypto rollout could be remembered as a turning point — when traditional banking finally took a decisive step toward digital-asset integration. For everyday customers, it means convenience, security, and easier access to a growing asset class. For the industry at large, it represents the beginning of a deeper transformation, where banks evolve from resisting crypto to embracing it as part of their core service offering.

The financial landscape is shifting. And BPCE is making sure it doesn’t get left behind.