Whales Alarm

Bull run isn’t over, it’s delayed.

The idea that Bitcoin still follows a clean 4-year cycle is getting weaker.

Most of the major moves in the last decade didn’t come from halving events, they came from shifts in global liquidity.

And the same patterns are starting to form again.

The clearest signal right now is stablecoin liquidity. Even with the recent drawdown, total stablecoin supply keeps climbing. That usually means large players haven’t exited crypto, they’re sitting on dry powder and waiting for the macro setup to turn.

On the US side, Treasury policy is becoming a major catalyst.

The recent buybacks were one thing, but the bigger story is the TGA balance sitting around $940B, almost $90B above its normal range. That extra cash eventually flows back into the system. When it does, it boosts financing conditions and adds liquidity that almost always finds its way into risk assets.

Globally, the direction is even clearer.

⬥ China has been injecting liquidity for months.
⬥ Japan just rolled out a ~135B stimulus package and is actively making crypto regulations easier, including tax relief.
⬥ Canada is also moving toward easing.
⬥ And the Fed has already stopped QT, historically the first step before some form of liquidity expansion.

When several major economies shift toward expansion at the same time, risk assets usually respond far earlier than stocks or broader markets.

Another overlooked piece is the potential for policy tools like SLR exemption.

In 2020, this gave banks more room to expand their balance sheets and lend aggressively. If something similar returns, it increases credit creation and liquidity, across the entire system.

Then there’s the political layer.

Trump has talked repeatedly about restructuring taxes, even exploring the idea of removing income tax and also distributing $2,000 tariff dividend.

Whether that fully plays out or not, the direction is toward more market friendly policies ahead of the 2026 mid cycle period.
Add to that the likelihood of a new Fed Chair who is more open to liquidity support and constructive toward crypto. This will help ISM PMI jump over 50, which will result in economic expansion.

Historically whenever ISM PMI has jumped over 55, it has resulted in an alt season and possibility of that happening in 2026 is very high.

When you combine:
⬥ Rising stablecoin liquidity
⬥ Treasury injecting cash back into markets
⬥ Global QE returning
⬥ QT ending in the U.S.
⬥ Potential bank-lending relief
⬥ Pro-market policy changes in 2026
⬥ Big players entering the crypto space
⬥ Clarity Act approval
⬥ And a more crypto-friendly Fed leadership

...the setup starts to look very different from the old 4-year halving pattern.

If liquidity expands across the U.S., Japan, China, Canada, and other major economies in the same window, Bitcoin almost never moves against that direction.

Historically, it follows liquidity, not halving dates.

That’s why the next major phase could extend far beyond a typical cycle. Instead of a sharp run followed by a deep multi year bear market, the environment points to a longer, broader uptrend that could stretch through 2026 and into 2027.

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