黎明同学

The market's hitting me like a freight train, so fast that I haven't even had time to forget your clownish analysis.

BTC has temporarily halted its downtrend and is experiencing a technical recovery. The market's focus will shift to the performance of funds after the opening of US stocks tonight.

If traditional markets show a renewed risk appetite and institutional selling pressure eases, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward recovery; conversely, if funds continue to flow out, there remains a possibility of a second dip in the short term.

From the exchange data, the spot price on Coinbase has shown signs of narrowing its premium by about $30 compared to other platforms, indicating that buying pressure is gradually returning.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC is in a rebound phase after being oversold, but whether this rebound can sustain will depend on the attitude of institutional funds moving forward. Tonight's performance of US stocks will be key in choosing the short-term direction.

From a macro perspective, the market isn't short on cash; the ongoing strength of the US stock market is the best proof of that. The issue isn't liquidity but rather a noticeable decline in interest from funds towards mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH . More capital is starting to flow into sectors that have new narratives and growth expectations.

A notable recent shift is that many altcoins are beginning to establish their own rhythms, reducing their dependence on the broader market, and the on-chain ecosystem is less affected by BTC volatility than before.

Key areas to watch:

Tokenization of stocks / RWA
AI computing narratives
Meme coins with a history of solid performance

Instead of guessing when Bitcoin will hit the bottom and rebound, I'm more focused on where the money is gathering. The market will always reward consensus-driven directions.

BTC and ETH have been stacking up short positions these past couple of days, with some whales continuing to load up on their shorts. From the liquidation distribution, there's already a significant accumulation of long liquidation zones below, with BTC focusing around 75k and ETH around the 2050 mark.

Right now, the market feels like it's waiting for a "double bottom" test; short-term, we can't rule out the possibility of further downward support tests. When trading, it's crucial to manage risk and avoid blindly using high leverage.

Additionally, on-chain data shows that many small players are still aggressively going long, while the big players are overall more cautious, leaning towards bearish sentiments. This divergence is definitely something to keep an eye on.

$BTC This wave is still leaning towards a consolidation trend, but the overall structure hasn't been broken yet, still in a high-level oscillation zone.

Next, pay close attention to the support area of 76100-75600. If the price retraces and holds steady, and the right shoulder pattern gradually confirms, there’s a chance for a short-term rebound. You might consider scaling into long positions.

Market sentiment is still in the dumps, the fear index has plummeted into the extreme fear zone, but the price at $BTC has consistently held above 77000, no matter how hard it's hit, there's been no further dip.

What's even more crucial is that ETF money has been flowing in net positive for several days now; it seems like Wall Street is quietly scooping up assets, and large institutions are increasing their allocations in spot BTC.

A lot of times, before a real rally kicks off, market sentiment is usually at its most pessimistic.

Recently, the regulatory moves against cross-border brokers have become increasingly evident, essentially tightening the ways cross-border capital flows in those gray areas.

But one thing won't change:
The market demand for US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and USD asset allocation still exists.

Demand won't disappear; it will just shift from old channels to new ones.

That's why more and more people are starting to pay attention to RWA, tokenized stocks, and platforms like Ondo in the on-chain finance space.

What the regulators are really cleaning up is the opaque pathways in between, not the global asset allocation itself.

In the future, the projects that truly have a chance to thrive in Web3 may not just be those that tell stories and issue tokens, but rather protocols that can genuinely map stocks, bonds, funds, and yield-bearing assets onto the chain.

The entry points for traditional finance are becoming stricter, while on-chain finance may be emerging as the new global capital channel.

After several days of weakness, $BTC has finally found support around 76000 and is now bouncing back, with the current price returning to the vicinity of 78000.

In the next 4-hour timeframe, the key focus is whether we can effectively break through 78500. If we manage to establish a foothold above that level, there’s a chance we could see another push towards 80000, possibly even retesting the 82000 region. As long as we can hold these higher levels, the market sentiment is likely to gradually warm up.

$BTC The long and short have entered a critical phase; if support breaks, we might see a waterfall market.

After Bitcoin dipped below 77000, market sentiment has started to turn bearish.

Currently, there's support around 76700 for short-term trades. If it holds, we might see a bounce; but once it breaks, it's highly likely we'll continue to dive down to the key trend level of 75800. $BTC

In the market, what really determines the outcome is often not which asset you bought.

It's when the price starts to swing and the emotions get chaotic, can you still stick to your judgment?

Many traders always miss out on big moves, not because they didn't see the opportunity, but because when the price fluctuates and the market chatter changes, their mindset goes haywire.

In reality, those who can truly make money from trends are never the ones who follow the crowd.

Because high-level opportunities are only for a select few who can withstand the doubts.

$BTC This second half of the year, there's a high probability we'll see another significant wave of volatility. Don't rule out a drop back to around $60,000, or even lower. Real major market moves usually go through repeated fluctuations, emotional breakdowns, and a redistribution of tokens before they gradually trend upwards.

$BTC The daily chart hasn't completely weakened yet, and the 78000-78500 range is currently holding strong. However, there’s noticeable selling pressure around 82500, and the market seems to be entering a correction phase.

80500-81200 remains a short-term resistance zone. Without a volume breakout above 83000, the high-level consolidation is leaning towards distribution. Keep an eye on the key support at 78500; if it breaks, we’re likely to see a dip towards 75000. #比特币跌破79000美元

After the CPI data came in hot, the market started to reprice the idea that "interest rates will stay elevated for longer." Overall, risk assets are going to feel the pressure, and short-term volatility might continue to ramp up.

In this environment, I think it's better to play the range rather than mindlessly chase trades. Position sizing and risk management should be top of mind.

Next, keep an eye on a few key signals:

Will the PPI stay hot?
Is crude oil pricing set to spike further?
Can BTC hold the 79,800 level?

If these indicators lean bearish simultaneously, it’s best to lower leverage in the short term and manage those pullbacks. Don’t just tough it out through emotional trading. #CPI超预期比特币承压

Currently, BTC's bullish sentiment is starting to loosen up, with some whales already taking profits at the highs. While the bulls aren't completely out of the game yet, their push is clearly not as strong as it was a few days ago.

On the flip side, ETH is seeing short positions slowly consolidating, with big money leaning towards a downward pressure strategy.

Looking at the liquidation distribution, there's still liquidity below that hasn't been fully cleaned out. BTC has a concentrated liquidation zone around 80.4k, while ETH is hovering around 2300. If we see any short-term dips, it's possible they'll first sweep away those leveraged positions before deciding on the next direction. $BTC

$币安人生 Old #DeFi has recently seen a noticeable inflow of funds. $COMP , as a veteran protocol, hasn't really made its move yet, which presents an opportunity for a catch-up rally. If it breaks out with volume past the previous highs, I feel there's still some room to run.

Lately, the market sentiment has started to get a bit overheated. The more liquidity is average, the more cautious you need to be; don’t let a short-term pump cloud your judgment. At this level for BTC, even if it continues to rise, if there aren't decent washouts and pullbacks in between, the upside might not be that impressive. Even if the last round around 60k was a solid bottom, hitting 240k would only be a few times the movement, and now that prices are already above 80k, future profit expectations will naturally be compressed.

Moreover, the crypto market is still heavily influenced by the stock market; if the Nasdaq weakens, the funds' sentiment in the crypto space can easily cool down. There are quite a few companies in the stock market that can yield high multiples, but for crypto to experience that kind of super cycle again, we still need a new major narrative and something that can genuinely attract outside capital.

Recently, these hotspots are more about the funds within the circle playing against each other; the hype comes quickly and leaves just as fast, and we still can’t see that feeling of truly changing market structure like back in the DeFi days. $BTC

Bitcoin's short-term trend is still leaning towards weak consolidation. The bullish structure on the daily chart hasn't been broken yet, but the upward momentum is starting to fade, and there's a hint of divergence on the chart.

First, keep an eye on the range between 81500 and 82800. This area has a lot of trapped positions and previous highs, so breaking through it in one go is going to be tough.

On the downside, we'll look to see if the support around 80000 can hold. The weekend market is likely to remain in a narrow consolidation range.

This area is already a densely packed position and is also a crucial defensive zone for the bulls. #币安推出黄金vsBTC未来资产对决活动

$BTC The market has started to feel a bit off these past couple of days, and the sentiment among the many FOMO buyers is clearly weakening.

Currently, the support around 80k has been tested repeatedly, and it feels like it could break at any moment.

If this level actually gets smashed, we're likely to see a sharp downturn following that.

So I'm leaning towards going short at these high levels.