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Grayscale has indicated that the cryptocurrency market has largely stabilized following the sharp deleveraging event that occurred in October, suggesting that recent price movements are now being driven more by fundamentals than by residual market stress.
In a social media update shared on January 13, the asset management firm stated that it no longer views the post–October 10 deleveraging as a major factor influencing current crypto valuations. Instead, Grayscale highlighted signs of market normalization and a shift toward more sustainable drivers.
The October reset was triggered by widespread liquidations in crypto perpetual futures markets, leading to a sharp contraction in leverage. Open interest across major derivatives platforms—including Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Hyperliquid—fell dramatically from an estimated $90–$100 billion in late September to roughly $55 billion following the October 10 event. After this decline, however, derivatives activity entered a period of relative stability. Throughout November and December, aggregate open interest hovered near the $50 billion level, indicating that the market had absorbed the shock.
Grayscale noted that while futures open interest edged slightly higher in December, options open interest declined, largely due to clustered contract expirations rather than risk-off behavior. This trend suggested that leverage was not being aggressively rebuilt, but neither was it being unwound further, reflecting a more balanced market structure.
The firm also emphasized that long-term Bitcoin holders have not engaged in significant selling, easing concerns about persistent supply pressure. With tax-related selling flows fading and key regulatory developments approaching, Grayscale believes future crypto valuations will be shaped increasingly by fundamentals, policy clarity, and macro conditions rather than the lingering effects of October’s deleveraging.
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