The redemption path after a $610k loss: Considering sell pressure, and the trade-offs with basis in play.
In response to a fellow trader's question: $MEGA , it seems a lot of folks are shorting like they did with $XPL , and after the market opened, spot was at 0.31, while the contract was at 0.2. Is it time to go long?
Here, the group overlooked a key point: the spot price on OK is 0.2, suggesting that the Binance spot might be pushed up by market makers during the pre-sale period.
Moreover, the critical basis wasn’t maintained, leading to a short position at 0.197.
Additionally, the pre-sale at 0.1 results in sell pressure, and claims weren't stuck.
At the same time, PM's prophecy for settlement within 24 hours allows for a stable profit of 9% at the close.
After all, with the Korean exchanges getting involved, chip control is slipping, the basis is weakening, and it feels relatively safe, so I rolled my position at 0.187. (There's also a signal here indicating an increase in position limits).
Currently, I'm at a break-even of 2.1, facing a loss of $589k.
The Berserker is getting anxious, with no follow-up direction.
Bought 400m pre-market at $AIGENSYN , the delivery price is 0.081.
I’ve dumped my position, you can scoop up some cheap tokens now.
alert的会所
·
--
Binance delisted $AI a few days ago.
Today, Coinbase listed $AI .
But this AI is not the same as that AI; the one Binance delisted was a PPT product AI companion that was questioned by major KOLs. Whether this delisting makes room for the new ticker is still up in the air.
The new AI launch is backed by a16z, a significant investment in crypto AI, @gensynai.
I FOMO'd into @aspecta_ai, buying 400 million in pre-market due to the following reasons:
1. Backed by a16z, with the mainnet officially launching on April 22, 2026, there's a real product here, and the pre-market saw a pump, indicating market recognition.
2. The valuation system in the AI sector can largely be quantified; for example, validating income and calculating validation counts. The AI sector resembles TAO, where AI infrastructure combined with DePIN allows for valuations to be estimated based on real-world applications.
3. The presale valuation was set at 1 billion, and the current pre-market is at 400 million, providing a valuation anchor.
4. The mainnet launch will see real AI settlement trading volumes, with 0.5% using smart contracts to repurchase AI.
But this AI is not the same as that AI; the one Binance delisted was a PPT product AI companion that was questioned by major KOLs. Whether this delisting makes room for the new ticker is still up in the air.
The new AI launch is backed by a16z, a significant investment in crypto AI, @gensynai.
I FOMO'd into @aspecta_ai, buying 400 million in pre-market due to the following reasons:
1. Backed by a16z, with the mainnet officially launching on April 22, 2026, there's a real product here, and the pre-market saw a pump, indicating market recognition.
2. The valuation system in the AI sector can largely be quantified; for example, validating income and calculating validation counts. The AI sector resembles TAO, where AI infrastructure combined with DePIN allows for valuations to be estimated based on real-world applications.
3. The presale valuation was set at 1 billion, and the current pre-market is at 400 million, providing a valuation anchor.
4. The mainnet launch will see real AI settlement trading volumes, with 0.5% using smart contracts to repurchase AI.
After multiple phone invites from Ms. @heyibinance.
Ms. @Ru7Longcrypto has also sent several video invites.
I've decided to show up tonight at the Binance Square for the meet-up with the big players.
I've been having a rough patch lately:
liquidations, business losses, colleagues leaving, and other events.
At 8 PM tonight, I'll share some insights on trading and men's health.
Let’s learn a thing or two from Strong Guy, just kidding.
新手学堂天使自治社区
·
--
🏷【Market Observation】How to Discover and Manage Risks of Those Suddenly "Surging" Altcoins?
【Binance Square|Beginner's Classroom•Face to Face with Experts EP77】
Two experts analyze and break it down, giving you more space for thought
🎙️ Guest: @Ru7 @alert的会所
⏰ Time: April 23, 2026 20:00 (HKT)
🎁 Benefits: Up to $200 live red envelope + $100 sharing on stage
📌 You will learn: ✓ How to identify market anomalies from a data perspective ✓ Establish an independent research framework ✓ Key points of risk management for highly volatile assets
🔔 点击立刻预约直播: Don't miss this wonderful opportunity for communication! #大咖面对面
Let's talk about the trading of $CHIP : one solid win and one aggressive strategy.
The Berserker's entry has two principles:
If you don't understand it, don't enter; if your friends aren't backing it up enough, don't enter.
There's a fantastic arbitrage opportunity pre-market for chip, which has been discussed in the community.
The Berserker didn't understand it and even didn't know that usdai is chip.
As shown in @aspecta_ai, when Binance announced the launch of pre-market contracts, the price in asp converted to a single token price was 0.02911, while the opening price on Binance was 0.03726.
You can replicate my arbitrage strategy from edgex at that time, though the profits aren't as high now; back then, it was a 30% profit.
Go long on asp, go short on Binance.
This is basically a low-risk guaranteed profit opportunity. If your strategy is to close the Binance short after the price difference is leveled out, you could see about double the profit when asp settles. The settlement price is 0.057.
I personally hit up @USDai_Official, the public price was 0.03, and I received the tokens today.
Yesterday, another community member asked if they could go long, and I replied that you can place a bet.
This is the only day 1 upbit of the year so far.
I wonder if this time it's a conditional offer; after the up, Binance announced spot.
However, ever since the Binance-ok-up triangle liquidity stopped swapping, the listing effect on Korean exchanges and the basis arbitrage opportunities have become fewer.
Everyone is waiting for one to launch, the price difference is about right, and the market cap returns for the second one.
This has been the only one in the past four months.
I missed out because I had tokens and didn't participate, which is somewhat regrettable. Congrats to the community member who went long yesterday.
Revisiting Trading: I am perfecting the trading system, while the Berserker continues his late-entry life.
$GENIUS This coin actually had many opportunities before the market opened. Once the contract was opened, I entered at 0.633, reaching a maximum profit of 20k dollars before closing.
In the end, when I faced a loss, I added at 0.53, and the Berserker caught the scent and began his late-entry life.
The Berserker opened his understanding of cars again. Perhaps trading discipline and mindset have reached their extremes; he doesn't need any trading system, using others’ is fine too.
However, I still prefer systematic approaches. Recently, there have been frequent occurrences of meme coins, and I started testing my new techniques.
Under the premise of control, the expansion of basis, the closing of open interest, and liquidity are the issues I consider, even if everyone is very FOMO, like $ORDI and the like.
I still use the following premises to create automated tools:
1. Good liquidity will not allow positions to be entered and then step on themselves.
2. The determination of main capital accumulation during open interest accumulation period, whether it is unilateral or bilateral.
3. The rate of change of basis, which is very detailed. Spot index pulls the index, maintaining the basis and considering the exchange's risk control system.
Some basis values have been intervened (meme coins).
Ordi tested 16 orders, resulting in not much profit (mainly because I set it to operate both long and short, will focus on unilateral next time.), continuing optimization.
A few days ago, @justinsuntron Sun Ge and @worldlibertyfi started tearing each other apart.
I took a look and my $USD1 hadn't been depilated.
I noticed that Sun Ge's $usdd had some depilation.
I don't care how they tear each other apart, as long as my own money is not lost. Anan and aster's usd1 activity is still ongoing, which is one of the few financial products in the current market that can outperform U.S. Treasury bonds.
Everything is useless to imagine recklessly before there is legal advice.
However, from the perspective of background checks, if Sun Ge really has substantive evidence, he will inevitably resort to legal means, because wlfi has frozen him for some time now.
(For details, refer to FDT and his artwork being infringed)
If there is no substantive evidence, he will create a hot topic for his next marketing or to sway public opinion.
Reference:
When acquiring Huobi, he accused Li Lin of hiding a $30 million hole.
Coinbase delisted wBTC out of concern for Sun Ge’s character, and then Sun Ge started to sue cb, only to withdraw the lawsuit against Coinbase.
As for myself, I just hold usd1 to earn interest, absolutely avoiding risks, and not touching $WLFI .
I gave my money to the prince, seeking an 8,888 U-dollar red envelope to comfort myself.
I can't take it anymore!
alert的会所
·
--
Re-discussing trading: $RAVE lost $36,000. If I were the trader, what should I do?
Many friends in the group say this coin is highly controlled, and the trader can draw lines however they want; it might rise to 4 and drop to 0.1.
Is it really like this, or is it your speculation, or what you call your feeling?
First: Many past investments were released linearly. When discussing high control, based on circulating chips, it certainly does not have $SIREN high control.
The reason it appears to be highly controlled now is that there has been no counteraction in the spot market.
Second: The current market value is 2B. Even if high control maintains the current market value, the cost is very different. If it starts at 0.3, 300,000 can maintain it; now it might require a million-level investment. I don't know if the trader is under financial pressure.
Therefore, the issue of high control exists with linear pressure.
However, from the data, I find this order very difficult; I struggle to make the decision to close the position and stop loss, and I still hold on.
Binance long 20 short 80 Ok long 21.2 short 78 By long 23.5 short 76
In other words, the trader can blow up the short positions, harvesting everything is the simplest choice.
Above 2.8, basically, all short positions can die out, but the trader does not push through.
It might be due to risk control intervention. From the chart, we can see that Binance's holdings have dropped from 45% to 33% across the network.
From the number of contracts, it is estimated that the trader's holdings account for 80% of the total positions.
If it continues to blow up, the trader will face two problems:
Where is the counterparty for closing positions? Will full exposure of short positions trigger risk control issues?
At this time, the trader's solution cannot be one of three situations:
1. Sideways continuation, accumulating a little counterparty and slowly closing positions. The benefit of this is that it’s peaceful, but it takes time, and high control might face financial pressure.
2. Use spot to control the fee rate, attract long positions to pay fees, and then close. (Here, from the fee rate that did not change to the emergence of negative fees since yesterday morning), this actually has drawbacks, and often when the trader doesn’t know.
3. Blow up the short positions, close the long positions with one click, Christmas tree. This kind of profit will be very small, and because of counterparty issues, Binance's margin will take over; Binance will definitely intervene.
Yesterday's market also had injections after closing long positions; at this time, a large number of short positions chased shorts instead of taking longs. He still cannot close out.
He has derived a path of reciprocal trading to satisfy the balance between maker and taker.
These writings are just for friends who often act as traders to see, without going into depth.
Re-discussing trading: $RAVE lost $36,000. If I were the trader, what should I do?
Many friends in the group say this coin is highly controlled, and the trader can draw lines however they want; it might rise to 4 and drop to 0.1.
Is it really like this, or is it your speculation, or what you call your feeling?
First: Many past investments were released linearly. When discussing high control, based on circulating chips, it certainly does not have $SIREN high control.
The reason it appears to be highly controlled now is that there has been no counteraction in the spot market.
Second: The current market value is 2B. Even if high control maintains the current market value, the cost is very different. If it starts at 0.3, 300,000 can maintain it; now it might require a million-level investment. I don't know if the trader is under financial pressure.
Therefore, the issue of high control exists with linear pressure.
However, from the data, I find this order very difficult; I struggle to make the decision to close the position and stop loss, and I still hold on.
Binance long 20 short 80 Ok long 21.2 short 78 By long 23.5 short 76
In other words, the trader can blow up the short positions, harvesting everything is the simplest choice.
Above 2.8, basically, all short positions can die out, but the trader does not push through.
It might be due to risk control intervention. From the chart, we can see that Binance's holdings have dropped from 45% to 33% across the network.
From the number of contracts, it is estimated that the trader's holdings account for 80% of the total positions.
If it continues to blow up, the trader will face two problems:
Where is the counterparty for closing positions? Will full exposure of short positions trigger risk control issues?
At this time, the trader's solution cannot be one of three situations:
1. Sideways continuation, accumulating a little counterparty and slowly closing positions. The benefit of this is that it’s peaceful, but it takes time, and high control might face financial pressure.
2. Use spot to control the fee rate, attract long positions to pay fees, and then close. (Here, from the fee rate that did not change to the emergence of negative fees since yesterday morning), this actually has drawbacks, and often when the trader doesn’t know.
3. Blow up the short positions, close the long positions with one click, Christmas tree. This kind of profit will be very small, and because of counterparty issues, Binance's margin will take over; Binance will definitely intervene.
Yesterday's market also had injections after closing long positions; at this time, a large number of short positions chased shorts instead of taking longs. He still cannot close out.
He has derived a path of reciprocal trading to satisfy the balance between maker and taker.
These writings are just for friends who often act as traders to see, without going into depth.
alert的会所
·
--
Talking about trading again: I am a good citizen, risk control lifted, but I lost 30,000 dollars.
Binance has started to intensify its crackdown on active market operations. Yesterday my $ARIA looked too much like a market maker, I opened a long at 0.189, today it reached 0.6, making a profit of 45,000 dollars, and they imposed risk control on me.
The Binance futures team contacted me immediately to check if my account was abnormal, confirmed that I wasn't a market maker, and protected my profits.
In the chat, I learned that the handsome guy in Binance's risk control is my die-hard fan, but unfortunately, I'm straight and not into that.
Actually, they contacted me an hour and a half after I posted yesterday, but I have a habit of going to bed early and getting up early due to my erectile dysfunction, so I didn't see it, and they automatically lifted the control on me.
$RAVE I woke up early and lost 30,000 dollars, I am still holding on, not sure if I can withstand it.
Talking about trading again: I am a good citizen, risk control lifted, but I lost 30,000 dollars.
Binance has started to intensify its crackdown on active market operations. Yesterday my $ARIA looked too much like a market maker, I opened a long at 0.189, today it reached 0.6, making a profit of 45,000 dollars, and they imposed risk control on me.
The Binance futures team contacted me immediately to check if my account was abnormal, confirmed that I wasn't a market maker, and protected my profits.
In the chat, I learned that the handsome guy in Binance's risk control is my die-hard fan, but unfortunately, I'm straight and not into that.
Actually, they contacted me an hour and a half after I posted yesterday, but I have a habit of going to bed early and getting up early due to my erectile dysfunction, so I didn't see it, and they automatically lifted the control on me.
$RAVE I woke up early and lost 30,000 dollars, I am still holding on, not sure if I can withstand it.
It made me hit my JB three times.
alert的会所
·
--
Re-discussing trading: Binance has begun to check for anomalies in contract trading.
$ARIA : You have triggered the risk monitoring threshold, and the system will perform only a reduction operation on specific contracts. Our relevant team will review the transaction details of users who trigger only the reduction operation.
I have been risk-controlled, over 0.18, 0.44 closed my position, I am a good citizen, just looking like a big player.
See yesterday's post, profit of 45,000 dollars.
$RAVE highest loss of over 15,000, currently losing 6,000, just hold on.
Re-discussing trading: Binance has begun to check for anomalies in contract trading.
$ARIA : You have triggered the risk monitoring threshold, and the system will perform only a reduction operation on specific contracts. Our relevant team will review the transaction details of users who trigger only the reduction operation.
I have been risk-controlled, over 0.18, 0.44 closed my position, I am a good citizen, just looking like a big player.
See yesterday's post, profit of 45,000 dollars.
$RAVE highest loss of over 15,000, currently losing 6,000, just hold on.