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Iran has just announced: the Strait of Hormuz is open to all countries except the United States, Israel, and their allies.
Short-term holders have already been trapped.
Among those who bought recently, more than half are currently in a state of loss.
This is a common scene in a bear market.
As long as this situation does not change, market demand usually struggles to truly recover.
We need to wait until this ratio returns to above 50% for the situation to possibly start improving.
Keep a close eye on this position.
It is the dividing line between the market's pain and recovery.
Among those who bought recently, more than half are currently in a state of loss.
This is a common scene in a bear market.
As long as this situation does not change, market demand usually struggles to truly recover.
We need to wait until this ratio returns to above 50% for the situation to possibly start improving.
Keep a close eye on this position.
It is the dividing line between the market's pain and recovery.
USDC's total circulating market value has surpassed its historical high, recently completing a V-shaped reversal 🔥. If this pace continues, it seems that liquidity will continue to improve. Is someone accumulating heavily?
Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold a rate-setting meeting, which generally starts after 4 PM on Wednesday. Currently, it is impossible to lock in the range of the spikes, as the high and low points will change if there is heavy trading before Wednesday. There will definitely be no interest rate cuts in March; this bearish expectation has long been digested by the market, so the actual impact will be minimal.
Picture speaking: Currently, there are many people shorting in the market, and they have added a very high leverage, with positions mainly concentrated around 74000. The funding rate is negative, indicating that the short sentiment is very crowded. Once the price rises, especially if it breaks through the key price level of 74000, these high-leverage short positions will face concentrated liquidation, with a total short liquidation pressure of 1.93 billion USD across the market.
Conversely, the liquidation pressure for long positions is mainly in the low range of 63000 to 69000, which is much smaller in scale than that of the shorts. Therefore, currently, those who are shorting are much more likely to be liquidated than those who are going long.
Conversely, the liquidation pressure for long positions is mainly in the low range of 63000 to 69000, which is much smaller in scale than that of the shorts. Therefore, currently, those who are shorting are much more likely to be liquidated than those who are going long.
Both bulls and bears are contracting, and the market is entering a corrective phase.
So my overall judgment on the latest few movements is:
In this round of decline, there has indeed been a localized new short;
At the latest position, more is about deleveraging and rebalancing, rather than a strong bearish trend taking off.
This point is particularly important.
Because it determines that now is not the most comfortable position to short.
Estimated to be volatile.
So my overall judgment on the latest few movements is:
In this round of decline, there has indeed been a localized new short;
At the latest position, more is about deleveraging and rebalancing, rather than a strong bearish trend taking off.
This point is particularly important.
Because it determines that now is not the most comfortable position to short.
Estimated to be volatile.
70600 is the first support level in this wave of decline, and if it goes further down, it will be 69000. Anyway, just hold onto your short position. If there is a clear reversal signal, I will let everyone know.
Key support: 70600, 69000
Key resistance: 74000, 76000
Key support: 70600, 69000
Key resistance: 74000, 76000
You can see how many traders are like this
Always going long and always shouting long, wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong...., right
Always going short and always shouting short, wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong...., right
On the contrary, those who go long and short and long and short....., die the hardest
Always going long and always shouting long, wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong...., right
Always going short and always shouting short, wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong...., right
On the contrary, those who go long and short and long and short....., die the hardest
Daily line closes, options data is not panicking, pullback to buy and oscillate upwards 🧐
Yesterday, $BTC surged to around 74K before retreating, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily line, which is a classic liquidity hunting distribution.
It indicates that there is heavy selling pressure above 73K, and the main force attracted high-flying buyers with a breakout pattern before distributing a large amount of spot inventory.
However, the options data is quite calm, with IV not showing a significant increase, and it continues to cool over the weekend.
Skew remains a mild negative value above -10, consistent with the oscillating upward data we mentioned earlier.
Therefore, the surge did not trigger a substantial derivatives short squeeze or FOMO sentiment, and the retreat did not induce panic. It is normal to encounter resistance and pull back; shorting is not recommended.
On the contrary, the 4-hour EMA 200 near 70500 and the Supertrend 4-hour near 69212 present opportunities for long positions.
The proportion of bullish positions in the capital market is 25.91%, firmly in first place, with most being sell calls, followed closely by 20.66% of large bearish sell Put Blocked.
This means that institutions currently maintain a wide straddle strategy, selling Calls above and selling Puts below, collecting premiums, and constructing an oscillating range.
The current market situation is suitable for following the main force to engage in sell Call and sell Put options trading. If it seems too complicated, one might consider dual-currency wealth management from various exchanges. It is not very suitable for contracts and leverage trading, as it can easily trigger stop losses.
If one must open a position, it should mainly be based on pullbacks to buy; the previously mentioned 69212 is the line for long and short conversion, falling below it. #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
Yesterday, $BTC surged to around 74K before retreating, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily line, which is a classic liquidity hunting distribution.
It indicates that there is heavy selling pressure above 73K, and the main force attracted high-flying buyers with a breakout pattern before distributing a large amount of spot inventory.
However, the options data is quite calm, with IV not showing a significant increase, and it continues to cool over the weekend.
Skew remains a mild negative value above -10, consistent with the oscillating upward data we mentioned earlier.
Therefore, the surge did not trigger a substantial derivatives short squeeze or FOMO sentiment, and the retreat did not induce panic. It is normal to encounter resistance and pull back; shorting is not recommended.
On the contrary, the 4-hour EMA 200 near 70500 and the Supertrend 4-hour near 69212 present opportunities for long positions.
The proportion of bullish positions in the capital market is 25.91%, firmly in first place, with most being sell calls, followed closely by 20.66% of large bearish sell Put Blocked.
This means that institutions currently maintain a wide straddle strategy, selling Calls above and selling Puts below, collecting premiums, and constructing an oscillating range.
The current market situation is suitable for following the main force to engage in sell Call and sell Put options trading. If it seems too complicated, one might consider dual-currency wealth management from various exchanges. It is not very suitable for contracts and leverage trading, as it can easily trigger stop losses.
If one must open a position, it should mainly be based on pullbacks to buy; the previously mentioned 69212 is the line for long and short conversion, falling below it. #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声
The rebound script of Bitcoin
Last night, Bitcoin surged to near the March 5 high alongside the rebound of the S&P, and then turned to decline following the drop of the S&P. Additionally, a large volume inverted hammer formed in the 72000-74000 range on the 4-hour K-line.
On one hand, this indicates that Bitcoin is still following the trend of the S&P; on the other hand, it shows that there is significant selling pressure around the 74000 level, making it a strong resistance that is not easily broken.
However, the subsequent decline in Bitcoin saw a noticeable reduction in trading volume, indicating a lack of sustainability in the selling pressure, which suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a deep drop.
Therefore, I speculate that Bitcoin may rebound according to the following script:
As the S&P continues to decline, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate below 74000, with the bottom gradually rising, forming an ascending triangle;
Once the S&P has basically completed its Wave A decline, Bitcoin may break through the resistance at 74000, completing a mid-bear market rebound;
Based on the ascending triangle pattern, the target price after the upward breakout is (74000/62500)*74000=87600, which is very close to my previous expected target price for Wave B rebound (87000).
Of course, this is just a speculation, a possibility. The premise for this script to hold is that Bitcoin continues to make small drops with low volume, retesting without effectively breaking below the short-term trend line.
Last night, Bitcoin surged to near the March 5 high alongside the rebound of the S&P, and then turned to decline following the drop of the S&P. Additionally, a large volume inverted hammer formed in the 72000-74000 range on the 4-hour K-line.
On one hand, this indicates that Bitcoin is still following the trend of the S&P; on the other hand, it shows that there is significant selling pressure around the 74000 level, making it a strong resistance that is not easily broken.
However, the subsequent decline in Bitcoin saw a noticeable reduction in trading volume, indicating a lack of sustainability in the selling pressure, which suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a deep drop.
Therefore, I speculate that Bitcoin may rebound according to the following script:
As the S&P continues to decline, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate below 74000, with the bottom gradually rising, forming an ascending triangle;
Once the S&P has basically completed its Wave A decline, Bitcoin may break through the resistance at 74000, completing a mid-bear market rebound;
Based on the ascending triangle pattern, the target price after the upward breakout is (74000/62500)*74000=87600, which is very close to my previous expected target price for Wave B rebound (87000).
Of course, this is just a speculation, a possibility. The premise for this script to hold is that Bitcoin continues to make small drops with low volume, retesting without effectively breaking below the short-term trend line.
Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war 14 days ago, the market value of the US stock market has evaporated 2.4 billion dollars.
During the same period, oil prices have risen by 53%.
During the same period, oil prices have risen by 53%.
In a Bear Market, Restraint Is More Important than Action
You cannot decide the market, but you can decide whether to take action.
It is precisely because of this that the most important thing in a bear market is never judgment, but restraint.
When the market continues to decline, with prices fluctuating and rebounding daily before dropping again, many people cannot help but frequently enter and exit the market, trying to capture every small fluctuation. It looks like 'active trading,' but in reality, it often results in continuously consuming capital and confidence.
Because of high-frequency trading, money is slowly lost to the market.
In a bearish market, the main theme is decline and uncertainty.
There are many short-term rebounds, but their sustainability is usually not high. It is easy to get trapped by chasing in, and stop-loss orders are often repeated. Each entry and exit seems like just a small loss, but accumulated over time, the capital will shrink at a fast pace. As the hands move more frequently, the mentality becomes more and more impatient, and decision-making begins to lose discipline; this is when the real risk starts to amplify.
It is precisely because of this that the most important thing in a bear market is never judgment, but restraint.
When the market continues to decline, with prices fluctuating and rebounding daily before dropping again, many people cannot help but frequently enter and exit the market, trying to capture every small fluctuation. It looks like 'active trading,' but in reality, it often results in continuously consuming capital and confidence.
Because of high-frequency trading, money is slowly lost to the market.
In a bearish market, the main theme is decline and uncertainty.
There are many short-term rebounds, but their sustainability is usually not high. It is easy to get trapped by chasing in, and stop-loss orders are often repeated. Each entry and exit seems like just a small loss, but accumulated over time, the capital will shrink at a fast pace. As the hands move more frequently, the mentality becomes more and more impatient, and decision-making begins to lose discipline; this is when the real risk starts to amplify.
In the blink of an eye, it is already the last trading day of this week. Looking back on these past few days brings a lot of emotions.
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