The Castle

The year-on-year CPI data was quite good, but the underlying data remains as expected. It is important to remember that the underlying data is what the FED considers for monetary policy decisions. Despite this, the probability of a rate cut on September 17 is on the horizon.

Trump extends the deadline of the tariff truce between the United States and China by 90 days.

The settlement map looks interesting in the SHORTS section #btc

I don't believe that Bitcoin's capital will move towards altcoins. Rather, I think that new money will come from investors entering the market. The large holders of Bitcoin, the 'whales', are not going to sell their BTC to buy altcoins; that's something we small investors tend to do, but not them. The big players are betting on the long term. The flow of capital we will see will come from new players or small investors who have not yet been encouraged to enter due to fear in the market. I believe that this month we could see a drop or correction in the market, but in September, with cheaper money, there will be a rebound. However, it won't last long, maybe a couple of weeks. Then, investors will wait for another rate cut. Until that cut arrives, we will probably see another drop, a rise and fall that will repeat with each rate adjustment.

Tomorrow the data for #IPC will be published, an indicator that tends to generate great volatility in the markets. Personally, I prefer to observe this event from a distance, as the volatility can be extreme.

According to the chart between M2 and BTC, we are on the verge of a correction. Just like in the SP500, the drop could occur this month considering the 3-month LAG TIMING we have. I leave you both charts so you can draw your own conclusions; the chart was taken today.

M2 Charts at the Macro LEVEL.

Long positions in perpetuals are larger than shorts, this can put upward pressure in the short term.

Is there still a drop missing? Well, yes, the rise has been quite vertical for the past few weeks, I still expect a drop near 109k in #btc

President Trump announced the new tariffs strategically: the measure was made public after the market closed, thus avoiding an abrupt reaction in prices. Had it been communicated during the session, the high trading volume could have exacerbated the decline, leading to panic selling and greater volatility. This timing allows investors to calmly assess the implications over the next 16 hours, reducing the risk of impulsive decisions.

It is noteworthy that the implementation will be gradual: some tariffs will take effect immediately, while others will be applied in the coming days. This staggered approach suggests a willingness to keep negotiations open, which could be interpreted as a sign of flexibility. More than a definitive measure, it seems like a tactic to push for more favorable trade agreements.

In this scenario, investors must maintain calm: the corrections generated by this type of news usually create opportunities to rebalance portfolios and improve positions at more attractive prices. The key will be to differentiate between political noise and the real fundamentals of the market.

U.S. suspends labor investigation against Apple after Trump's appointment

🔴 Key:
The U.S. labor oversight agency closed its investigation into Apple.
The decision came after Donald Trump appointed the agency's lawyer to a key position.

Source: Financial Times.

Trump will evaluate tomorrow whether to announce a definitive offer to acquire TikTok; investors would include Blackstone and Oracle, according to CBS News
🔴
Highlight: Donald Trump is reportedly considering making a final offer for the purchase of TikTok tomorrow. Among the possible investors are giants like Blackstone and Oracle, according to CBS News.

🔥🇺🇸🇻🇪 COMMERCIAL ALERT | U.S. IMPOSES EXTRA TARIFFS OF 25% ON COUNTRIES THAT TRADE WITH VENEZUELA

📌 New tough measure! The White House has just confirmed that the additional 25% tariffs for nations that trade with Venezuela will be added to the existing ones.

💥 Immediate impact:
✔️ Chinese products will rise to a total of 45% in tariffs
✔️ Will take effect from April 2
✔️ Trade tensions will heat up

⚠️ What does it mean?
🔹 The U.S. is economically pressuring the Venezuelan government
🔹 Companies importing from China will be directly affected
🔹 Possible increase in costs of electronics, textiles, and more

📈 Markets on alert:
Volatility is expected in sectors dependent on Chinese imports.

#Economy #USA #Venezuela #China #Tariffs

🚨 EURUSD PLUNGES AFTER PMI DATA! 🚨

📉 Free fall to 1.0810 after disappointing U.S. manufacturing PMI (49.8 vs. 51.9 expected).

🔥 But attention:
✅ Services PMI (53.5) and composite (54.3) exceed expectations, showing strength in the non-industrial sector 💪🇺🇸.

💡 What now?
🔻 If it breaks 1.0810:
➡️ Next target: 1.0780.
➡️ If the downward pressure continues, we could see 1.0735 (recent lows).

⚠️ The dollar strengthens due to the strength of services, but weak manufacturing keeps the tension. Market in reactive mode! ⚡

What do you think? Bounce back or more decline $BTC ? 👀📉🚀

📈 U.S. 🇺🇸: March PMI reveals growth in services, but contraction in manufacturing.

The services sector in the U.S. accelerated its pace in March, with a PMI of 54.3 📊✅, showing a solid expansion.
On the other hand, the manufacturing industry fell to 49.8 📉🔻, entering contraction territory.

Despite this, the economy as a whole continues to grow 🚀💼, driven primarily by the dynamism of the services sector.

🔍 What does it mean? While services maintain their pace, manufacturing faces challenges. We will be attentive to upcoming trends! 👀📆 $BTC #EEUU

American market futures open higher 📈, with positive prospects for this new week 🌟. However, we cannot rule anything out and must stay alert to the news of this third week of March 📅.

Among the important data we will have this week are the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Consumer Confidence Index 📊. These indicators are key and can move the markets, so we must be clear about them 🧠.
In this context, it is crucial to be prepared for both a possible market rise and a decline 📉📈. Let's remember that, in any scenario, there are opportunities: we can take advantage of both bearish and bullish markets 💼💡

. There are opportunities in all if we know how to act! 🚀💪

$BTC #SP500 #mercados

Bitcoin approaches $87k 🚀, while American futures continue to rise 📊. However, the rest of the altcoins remain flat, with no major movements 📉. Market uncertainty seems to be dissipating 🌤️, but we still cannot rule out a possible bulltrap 🕳️. Trading volume remains low 📉, which forces us to stay alert and not dismiss any possibility. The market always surprises us! 🤔💡
$BTC