查理的芒格

In just ten short days, the number of fans has grown from 0 to nearly 3000. Charlie is filled with gratitude for everyone's trust and support.
To give back to everyone, Charlie maintains his original intention of public welfare and has opened a dedicated group chat to provide a clean and rational space for all.
Charlie’s rules remain as stated:
This group has no charges. Charlie does not take orders, does not shout orders, does not recommend orders, and does not require you to fill out any complicated commission referral codes. In this group, there are no myths of getting rich overnight; Charlie will only speak with cold data and common sense.
Regarding the exclusive consultation channel for fans:
As long as you are a brother who follows Charlie, you can join the group and add Charlie's personal account to consult about important issues.
But please understand, there are currently too many people in the industry, and the energy is limited. If you have a position that is deeply trapped or about to explode, or if you have urgent directional or difficult questions that need answers, feel free to communicate with Charlie at any time. No matter how busy Charlie is, he will take time to help you with the most objective "surgical" diagnosis and respond one by one.
If there are no matters of life and death, let's leave the time for market analysis and communication in the group.
Grateful for the journey together. Charlie’s door is always open to rational people who respect the market!

$RIVER
Discussing the Opportunities and Risks of RIVER
I have never liked to rely on emotional speculation, but the market and fundamentals of RIVER are worth sitting down to discuss.
Short term: Short squeezes and narrative resonance, with clear upward momentum on the technical front, the selling pressure from long positions has been completely cleared, indicating that there is no longer historical selling resistance above; while the accumulation of high-leverage short positions serves as future 'fuel' for the rise — once the price breaks through key levels, forced liquidations of short positions will convert into passive buying, pushing prices upwards. The short-term path is very clear: first reach 24.17-24.74, triggering 50x short position liquidations; then to 24.92-25.28, where high-leverage short positions continue to squeeze; finally challenge the extreme peak of 25.46-26.75, which is the high-probability direction given by technical analysis. The fundamentals are also in alignment: the circulation of satUSD continues to grow, the launch of Smart Vault is imminent, combined with the fermentation of stablecoin narratives, both sentiment and capital are on the bullish side, making the certainty of short-term upward movement not low.
Medium term: Ecosystem and institutions are the key factors in whether it can break through 26.75 and impact 28-30, relying not on luck, but on real substance: whether TVL continues to rise, whether the practical use cases of satUSD expand, and whether institutional funds are willing to continue flowing in. If the data doesn't keep up, once the narrative fades, the price will return to the strong support range of 22-23 — this is market common sense, there is no perpetual rise, only eternal supply and demand.
Long term: The ceiling of the track determines the final height. The long-term value of RIVER essentially lies in the value of the 'chain-abstract stablecoin' track: if it can become a leader in this niche field, a target of 35-40 is not a fantasy; but if stablecoin regulations tighten, or it fails to compete in a crowded field, the price will return to liquidity itself, potentially even falling below 20.
Finally, let's talk about risks, which is the core of investment. Three pitfalls must be guarded against: first, the stablecoin space is crowded, with giants like USDT, USDC in front; whether it can capture market share remains uncertain; second, RIVER's circulating supply is very small, large transactions are prone to slippage, and in extreme market conditions, liquidity may dry up; third, regulatory risk, as stablecoins have always been a regulatory focus, a single policy can change all logic.
Charlie said: RIVER has short-term opportunities, but the variables in the medium and long terms are too many, don't put all your chips on one.

$LYN has been closed.
I held a short position in LYN and chose to take profit today. This is not a shift towards a bullish outlook, but rather adhering to the investment principle of 'avoiding problems and securing profits.' The short selling previously was a bet on the certainty of a short-term correction, but LYN's liquidation structure has now issued a clear warning: the long position liquidations above have completely hit zero, and the historical pressure from trapped sellers has been fully cleared. There is no longer any natural resistance to price increases from liquidation. Meanwhile, there is a massive accumulation of 20x high-leverage short positions. Once the price breaks through a key range, the forced buying from short position liquidations will instantly ignite a short squeeze, rapidly erasing short profits and potentially leading to losses.
As a small-cap coin, LYN's liquidity is inherently weak, and its volatility is extreme. Shorting is fundamentally a tactical move to capture short-term price differentials, not a gamble on long-term declines. We never cling to the last cent, nor do we bet on low-probability luck. Leaving the market proactively before reaching a risk threshold is the true respect for principal and compound interest.
Charlie’s quote: 'Successful investing is fundamentally about continuously avoiding those traps that can lead to significant losses, rather than seizing every opportunity for sudden wealth.'

The position $CYS has been closed.
I shorted CYS and decisively exited today, not because I am bullish on the long trend, but to adhere to the bottom line of investment — avoiding risks and protecting profits. The previous shorting was based on its short-term correction potential, but the current liquidation structure of CYS has changed: long positions have completely liquidated to zero, the selling pressure from trapped longs has been entirely released, and there is a dense accumulation of short positions below. The short-covering rally could instantly erase profits and even lead to losses.
As a small-cap cryptocurrency, CYS has weak liquidity and high volatility. Shorting is about capturing short-term correction opportunities rather than blindly betting on a long-term decline. We never greedily chase the last bit of profit, nor do we gamble on uncertain markets; taking profits when available and avoiding high-probability risks is the wisdom of investing.
Charlie’s quote: “Investment does not require genius-level IQ, only rational control ability. A true investment master does not earn a lot but loses less; preserving the principal is what allows one to laugh last.”

$BTR I shorted BTR, and today I chose to take profits, not because I am bullish on the trend, but to follow the most basic investment logic. Currently, BTR long positions have been liquidated to zero, there is no selling pressure from trapped positions above, and short positions are concentrated. Once a key level is broken, a short squeeze will instantly swallow up short profits, even causing losses.

The liquidity of small cryptocurrencies is inherently weak and the volatility is severe. The core of shorting is to capture short-term pullback opportunities, rather than blindly betting on a long-term decline. Taking profits and avoiding uncertain risks is the key to maintaining profitability — we never gamble on luck, we only do things with a high probability of success.
Charlie’s quote: “Acknowledging one’s ignorance is the beginning of wisdom. In investing, we don't need to pursue making big profits every time; we just need to avoid big losses, and long-term compounding will naturally give us the returns we deserve.”

$GWEI 0.04339, 24-hour drop 14.86%. The data signals a continuation of the downtrend, with bears in control. I have set a take-profit order and will hold my position in line with the trend.

Data Review

Price 0.043398 USDT, 24h drop of 14.86%, trading volume 12.04 million USDT. MA7 0.04454, MA25 0.04674, MA99 0.05165, price has broken all moving averages, showing a bearish arrangement. After continuously falling from the high of 0.0511, the lowest price reached 0.04331, with a drop exceeding 15%. Trading volume remains low, and buying pressure is weak. Technical analysis: the moving average system is diverging downward, and there are significant resistance levels against a rebound.

Core Logic

This is a typical bearish trend market, with moving averages indicating that major funds are continuously exiting, pushing prices lower. The market has shifted from consolidation to a one-sided decline, and the best strategy is to short in line with the trend. I have set a take-profit order, letting profits run, not predicting the bottom, just following the trend.

Public Sentiment Analysis

Panic sentiment is spreading on social media, with calls for bottom fishing increasing, but the real bottom is when bears are exhausted, not now.

Charlie Munger said:
"Think backwards, always think backwards. But when the trend comes, just think along with it."

Benjamin said:

May you—remain calm during the downturn and exercise restraint during the rebound.

—Charlie Munger

Dear readers, please forgive me, Charlie conducts data analysis for every post. To reiterate: no fees, no signals, no rebates. If you come to discuss, I welcome you; if you think I have ulterior motives, then consider me doing charity work, doing good deeds while gaining everyone's attention.

$LYN One-third of the fee was consumed early in the morning

$TRUMP Maga! maketrumpgreatagain! Mtga! Charlie is not optimistic about this coin, but rather about the blood-stained chips.

$NIGHT I always say: If I knew where I would die, I would never go to that place. And this chart of NIGHT clearly states two words: Trap.

First, let's look at the most glaring truth: a 20.45% drop in 7 days, with a nearly zero increase over 30 days, falling from a high of 0.12 all the way down, trading volume continues to shrink, new funds avoid it, and the funding curves for contracts and spot prices are heading south, obviously indicating that the main force is fleeing on a large scale.
The most useful mindset in my life is to think in reverse. If you want to catch the bottom for a rebound, first check where you would die: the range between 0.047 and 0.0492 is the first ghost gate for bulls; once it breaks, the chain liquidation of high-leverage long positions will leave you with no chance to stop-loss; and the range between 0.0427 and 0.045 is the bulls' graveyard; once it breaks, it will only lead to a deeper abyss.
Now, let's see how much you can earn: the range between 0.053 and 0.0549 is the dense area for short positions; if you want to bet on a rebound, you must first break through layers of resistance; the downside space is much larger than the upside space, with a pathetic chance of winning. This is not investment at all; it is pure gambling.
I have never caught a falling knife in my life, nor do I engage in bets where the odds are not in my favor. Too many people always think about catching the bottom to make quick money, but forget that in a downtrend, there are still eighteen layers of hell beneath.
The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the determination to control one's hands. Remember: not doing stupid things can earn you much more money than doing smart things.
What do you think, will NIGHT continue to fall, or can it welcome a rebound?

$VVV
On VVV, I only teach you how to survive
Dear friends at Binance, I have lived for nearly a century, seen countless bubbles from fervor to collapse, and realized an eternal truth: if you want to make money, first figure out where you will die, and then never go to that place.
Recently, everyone has been talking about VVV, which has seen a 204% increase in 30 days, making too many people envious, only focusing on how much more it can rise, while ignoring the liquidation map, which is filled with the graves of high-leverage players.
The most useful thinking I've had in my life is to think in reverse. For bulls, the range of 5.5-5.59 is just a deep pit you've dug for yourself. Here lies a massive amount of 50x leverage long positions, and once it breaks down, the chain reaction of liquidations will avalanche, leaving you with no chance to stop loss. For bears, the range of 6.0-6.34 is your burial ground. The density of short positions here is alarming, and once the price stabilizes and breaks through, you, who are betting against the trend, will only be completely swallowed by the squeeze.
What I despise most in my life is high leverage. No matter how smart a person is, they can die on 50x leverage due to the eagerness to make quick money. Those densely packed high-leverage positions are all bombs waiting to be detonated; if you insist on rushing into the minefield to pick up money, you will eventually be shattered to pieces.
True investing is a game of probabilities. Now VVV stands at the watershed of 5.66, with a 50/50 chance of winning or losing; the dumbest thing is to rush in and gamble. Smart people only act when the odds are completely in their favor.
The market is always full of myths of overnight wealth; what’s lacking are those who can survive a round of bull and bear markets. Remember: the money you can afford to lose is always more important than the money you can earn.
Who do you think will be the first to face the wave of liquidations in VVV?

$DEGO Dear friends at Binance, I have lived for nearly a century, witnessing the tulip bubble, the dot-com frenzy, and the subprime mortgage collapse, and have seen the crypto market go from being neglected to a frenzy of excitement. People often ask me the secret to making money, and the answer is always the same: first, figure out where you will die, and then never go to that place.
Recently, everyone has been talking about DEGO, that densely packed liquidation map, which has never seemed to me like a market tool, but rather a clear list of casualties. Too many people are fixated on its doubling gains to calculate profits, yet refuse to look down and see how many high-leverage players’ corpses they are standing on.
The most useful mindset I’ve had in my life is to think in reverse. To survive in the market, first understand two core concepts: the range from 0.84 to 0.9 is a deep pit dug by the bulls for themselves; once it breaks down, it will trigger a chain liquidation, causing an avalanche-like stampede; the range from 1.06 to 1.09 is a graveyard laid out by the bears for themselves; once it breaks through, the stop-loss orders from contrarian short positions become excessive gains for trend-followers.
You see, in 9 instances of market behavior, if you are wrong just once, 20x leverage can instantly wipe you out; those high positions are all bombs waiting to explode.
True investing is a game of probabilities. Now DEGO stands at a pivotal point of 1.0 for bulls and bears, with a 50/50 chance of winning or losing; the smartest move is not to gamble on size, but to wait until the odds are confirmed before taking action. I never rely on speculation to make big money; I just stick to not doing foolish things.
The market is never short of myths about getting rich overnight; what it lacks are those who have survived bull and bear markets. Remember: the money you can lose is always more important than the money you can make.
What do you think, will the first wave of liquidations for DEGO fall on the bulls or the bears? Let’s chat in the comments.

I have set a take profit, do not follow the trade. $MMT 0.1470, 24 hours increase 24.58%. The data gives a signal—after the breakout, the main upward wave, direction looks bullish, trend is strong.

Data Review

Price 0.1470 USDT, 24h increase of 24.58%, trading volume 20.57 million USDT. MA7 0.1228, MA25 0.1200, MA99 0.1195, the three moving averages show a classic bullish arrangement, the price is far above all moving averages, in the main upward wave stage. Starting from the low point of 0.1160, the increase has exceeded 26%, currently consolidating strongly around 0.147. Trading volume continues to expand, price rises with increased volume, buying is active. Technical aspect: the moving average system is diverging upwards, dense support below, the trend is intact.

Core Logic

This is a typical main upward wave market after a breakout, the divergence of moving averages indicates that the main funds are continuously entering the market, driving prices to rise rapidly. The market has shifted from oscillation to a one-sided trend, following the trend is the best strategy. As long as the price does not drop below MA7 0.1228, the upward trend is not over.

Public Opinion Analysis

The heat on social media is rising rapidly, but it has not yet reached full FOMO. Mid-trend, there are still divergences, which is the basis for the continuation of the market.

Charlie Munger said:
"People think too much and think too little."

Benjamin said:

May you—firmly follow in the trend, stay clear-headed in the face of madness.

—Charlie Munger

Dear readers, please forgive, Charlie conducts data analysis on every post. Reiterate: no fees, no follow trading, no rebates. If you come to discuss, I welcome; if you think I have ulterior motives, then consider me doing charity, doing good, and conveniently gaining everyone’s attention.

$UAI What does crafting words matter? Understanding the timing and acting accordingly is the higher realm.

After Charlie issued the post with $UAI , do not follow the order anymore. I have also set a take profit. If everyone stands by my side, then the dealer will come to take Charlie. This principle is very simple, so following the order and taking the order is a paradox, it is like showing the dealer your pants.

$UAI 0.2277, down 19.57% in 24 hours. The brothers in the group have already doubled their short positions, are you still asking if you can catch the bottom? The data tells you - the bearish trend remains unchanged, following the trend is the way to go.

Data Review

Price 0.2277 USDT, 24h decline of 19.57%, transaction volume of 20.83 million USDT. MA7 0.2445, MA25 0.2658, MA99 0.2713, the price has broken all moving averages, forming a bearish arrangement. From the high point of 0.286, it has plunged all the way down to a low of 0.2254, with a drop of over 21%. Trading volume has shrunk, and the bottom catchers are still not giving up.

Core Logic

This is a textbook bearish trend - moving averages suppressing, prices gradually declining, and rebounds are weak. Any bottom catching is like catching flying knives; going short with the trend is the way to go with the market makers. Those shouting “welcome to go long” should now take a look at their accounts.

Public Sentiment Analysis

Retail investors are still fantasizing about a V-shaped recovery, with panic mixed with hope. The bottom will only appear when they are completely desperate.

Charlie Munger said:
“Think in reverse, always think in reverse. When most people are still trying to catch the bottom, you should be considering how to join the bears.”

Benjamin said:

May you - stay clear-headed in the downturn and decisively add to your shorts during the rebound.

— Charlie Munger

Dear readers, please forgive me, Charlie conducts data analysis in every post. To reiterate: no fees, no trades, no commissions. If you come to discuss, I welcome it; if you think I have ulterior motives, then consider me doing charity work, doing good deeds, and getting everyone's attention in the process.

$UAI increased positions three times, others abandoned while I took.

$PLAY 0.03843, 72.72% surge in 24 hours. The signal given by the data - the main upward wave accelerates, the trend is strong, and the outlook is bullish.

Data Review

Price 0.03843 USDT, 24h increase of 72.72%, trading volume 109 million USDT. MA7 0.03007, MA25 0.02347, MA99 0.02017, the three moving averages show a classic bullish arrangement, with the price far above all moving averages, in the main upward wave acceleration phase. Starting from the low point of 0.022, the increase has exceeded 74%, currently strongly consolidating around 0.0384. Trading volume continues to expand, price rises with volume increase, and buying interest is active. Technical aspect: the moving average system is diverging upwards, with dense support below, and the trend is intact.

Core Logic

This is a typical acceleration market after a breakthrough, with the divergence of moving averages indicating that main funds continue to enter the market, driving prices to rise rapidly. Market sentiment has shifted from hesitation to consensus, and going with the trend is the best strategy. As long as the price does not fall below MA7 0.0300, the upward trend is not over.

Public Opinion Analysis

The heat on social media is rising sharply, and FOMO sentiment is beginning to spread, but has not yet reached its peak. In the acceleration phase of the trend, profits and risks coexist, so a mobile stop-loss should be set properly.

Charlie Munger said:
"You must force yourself to think in the opposite direction. But when the trend comes, it’s enough to think along with it."

Benjamin said:

May you - firmly follow the trend, and remain clear-minded in the face of madness.

- Charlie Munger

Readers, please forgive me, Charlie analyzes data in every post. Reiterate: No charges, no trading signals, no commissions. If you come to discuss, I welcome it; if you think I have ulterior motives, then consider me doing charity and good deeds, while conveniently gaining everyone's attention.

$BTC Seventy thousand is an opportunity, not just hindsight. Munger said so.

$PLAY 0.03179, 24-hour increase of 48.21%. The signals given by the data indicate - the main rising wave accelerates, the trend is strong, and the direction is bullish.

Data Review

Price 0.03179 USDT, 24h increase of 48.21%, trading volume of 32.32 million USDT. MA7 0.02547, MA25 0.02214, MA99 0.01985, the three moving averages show a classic bullish arrangement, the price is far above all the moving averages, in the acceleration stage of the main rising wave. Starting from the low point of 0.0212, the increase has exceeded 50%, currently strongly consolidating around 0.0318. The trading volume continues to expand, price rises with volume increasing, buying interest is active. Technical analysis: the moving average system is diverging upwards, with dense support below, and the trend is intact.

Core Logic

This is a typical accelerated market after a breakout; the divergence of moving averages indicates that major funds are continuously entering the market, driving prices up rapidly. Market sentiment has shifted from hesitation to consensus, and following the trend is the best strategy. As long as the price does not fall below MA7 0.0254, the upward trend has not ended.

Public Opinion Analysis

Social media heat has surged sharply, and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment is beginning to spread, but it has not yet reached its peak. In the acceleration phase of the trend, profit and risk coexist, and a mobile stop-loss should be set.

Charlie Munger said:
"People think too much and think too little."

Benjamin said:

May you - firmly follow the trend, and remain clear-headed in madness.

-- Charlie Munger

Readers, please forgive me, Charlie analyzes data in every post. To reiterate: no fees, no recommendations, no commissions. If you come to discuss, I welcome you; if you think I have ulterior motives, consider me doing charity, doing good, and conveniently gaining everyone's attention.