Do you really expect an American government down this time? And what is its impact on Bitcoin in your opinion?
Crypto-blhkm
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Bullish
[ALERT] U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Spikes to 75%.
A major macro signal is flashing. Reports now indicate a 75% probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31st due to a political standoff over funding.
This level of uncertainty often triggers a powerful "risk-off" event across global markets. Capital tends to flee from assets like $BTC and equities, seeking safety. This creates significant downward pressure and could threaten key support levels for the current market structure. Be prepared for increased volatility.
[ALERT] U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Spikes to 75%.
A major macro signal is flashing. Reports now indicate a 75% probability of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31st due to a political standoff over funding.
This level of uncertainty often triggers a powerful "risk-off" event across global markets. Capital tends to flee from assets like $BTC and equities, seeking safety. This creates significant downward pressure and could threaten key support levels for the current market structure. Be prepared for increased volatility.
Institutional demand for $BTC is showing serious cracks. Over the past 10 days, as price fell from ~$97K to ~$90K, a massive $1.8B has flowed out of the spot ETFs. This is a significant signal of weakening institutional conviction.
On-chain data confirms the bearish pressure, with Net Realized Profit/Loss turning negative. This means recent sellers are taking losses, a classic sign of weakening market structure.
With institutional liquidity drying up, downside risk is increasing. The next major support level to watch is $85K.
MARKET STRUCTURE SIGNAL: What is the $BTC Weekly Zig-Zag Telling Us?
Looking at the weekly chart, the market structure for $BTC is a classic zig-zag pattern. This indicates a phase of consolidation, not a clear directional trend.
Each leg of this pattern, up or down, is essentially building liquidity. This suggests that larger players are operating within this range, but the market is still in a state of equilibrium. A decisive breakout above the pattern's resistance or a breakdown below support is required to confirm the next major move.
For now, the signal is Neutral. Trading within this chop is high-risk. Patience is key until the market shows its hand.
[WARNING] $XRP Rejects Key Resistance, More Downside Likely.
The market structure for $XRP remains decidedly bearish. We've just witnessed a firm rejection from a key intermediate resistance level, a clear sign that sell-side pressure is still in control.
This failure to breach the overhead supply zone reinforces the existing horizontal downtrend. With buyers failing to absorb the selling, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The latest Spot ETF data reveals a critical capital rotation. While the majors are bleeding, liquidity is flowing elsewhere.
$BTC ETFs saw another major net outflow of $104M, marking the fifth straight day of institutional selling. $ETH wasn't far behind, with a $41.74M outflow.
But this isn't a market-wide exit. This capital is moving. Spot ETFs for $SOL pulled in $1.87M, and $XRP ETFs absorbed $3.43M. This suggests institutional money isn't leaving crypto; it's shifting down the risk curve, potentially seeding a new altcoin leg up.
Verdict: Bearish for $BTC short-term market structure, but a bullish signal for altcoin liquidity.
ON-CHAIN SIGNAL: Whale Locks Up $503M of $ETH, Triggering Supply Squeeze Alert.
Tom Lee’s Bitmine just staked another 171,264 $ETH, removing over $503.2 million in liquidity from the open market.
This is a powerful signal of institutional conviction. Unlike sending coins to an exchange to sell, staking locks up supply long-term, creating a potential supply shock. This level of accumulation by a major player tightens the available float and is a precursor to bullish market structure.
Verdict: Strongly Bullish. A shrinking liquid supply for $ETH in the face of constant demand is a classic recipe for a price breakout.
Ethereum is showing quiet strength. While the market is choppy, the key market structure for $ETH against $BTC is holding firm.
Buyers are defending the support level around 0.0329 BTC, absorbing supply and slowly building momentum. We are now seeing a push toward the 0.0331 BTC range.
If this structure holds, it's a classic signal that accumulation is underway, potentially loading up for a significant breakout. Keep this on your radar.
Market Analysis: The substantial capital exit from these regulated vehicles signals waning investor confidence. This broad-based outflow creates significant selling pressure on the underlying assets, reinforcing a high-risk, bearish market outlook.
INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION: BITMINE STAKES $500M ETH
The smart money is aggressively removing supply. Bitmine has increased its staking position by 171,264 $ETH ($503M), bringing their total to roughly $5.71B.
This is a massive reduction in liquid supply. When institutions lock up billions, they are positioning for a supply shock. The data is bullish.
After a choppy session, Bitcoin has successfully defended the $89.3k zone. The dip served its purpose: clearing leverage and resetting the board.
This consolidation is healthy. The market is building a base for the next move up rather than collapsing. Key support held. The path of least resistance is still higher.
Market Analysis: The substantial capital exit from these regulated vehicles signals waning investor confidence. This broad-based outflow creates significant selling pressure on the underlying assets, reinforcing a high-risk, bearish market outlook.
Headline: Market Update - Key Indicators Signal Capital Consolidation
Institutional ETF flows indicate a period of minor consolidation for the majors: • BTC Price Pressure: -$32.11M net outflow. • ETH Price Pressure: -$41.98M net outflow.
Analysis: Despite the outflows in BTC/ETH, Solana and XRP are displaying a rare decoupling with positive net inflows ($1.71M and $2.09M respectively). This suggests traders are cautiously optimistic about altcoin strength during this consolidation phase.
The asset has entered a consolidation phase following a significant decline, now situated beneath a key overhead liquidity zone.
• Primary Liquidation Zone: $95K–$97K • Market Phase: Post-decline consolidation • Current Risk Profile: High
Following a notable price decrease, the market is now consolidating below the primary resistance level. A significant liquidation cluster identified between $95K and $97K is acting as a major overhead barrier. The current market structure is neutral, with price action contained below this key liquidity zone. A high-risk environment persists as traders watch for a reaction at this critical level.
Market Update: Strategy Holds 709k BTC, Signals New Buy
Data as of 2026-01-23. Michael Saylor's Strategy has released its 4th Strategy Tracker for 2026, showing continued aggressive accumulation.
Key Data Points:
• Total Holdings: 709,715 BTC (~$63 Billion).
• Cost Basis: Average entry of $75,979 per Bitcoin.
• Performance: Unrealized PnL stands at +$9 Billion (+16.78%).
Market Analysis:
This accumulation strategy reinforces the "Corporate Treasury" narrative. Strategy acts as a consistent source of buy-side pressure, independent of short-term retail sentiment. The signal of an additional purchase tomorrow suggests confidence in defending the current price structure.
New data highlights a significant structural difference between the leading L1 ecosystems during this volatility.
Key Staking Metrics: • Solana (SOL): Staking ratio has reached an ATH of ~70%, locking approximately $60B. • Ethereum (ETH): Staking participation sits at ~30% (~$120B), supported by institutional flows.
Market Analysis: The high proportion of staked SOL creates a tighter supply dynamic compared to ETH. When paired with positive bridge inflows, this supply constraint is contributing to SOL's relative strength against Ethereum in the current environment.
XRP is maintaining the $1.90 valuation despite an uptick in trading volume. The market is currently defined by a clear resistance structure.
Key Metrics: • Price: ~$1.90 (Consolidation). • Resistance: $2.00 remains the critical invalidation point for bears. • Flow Data: High volume without price expansion suggests aggressive selling at the highs, specifically from long-term holder cohorts.
Outlook: The trend remains neutral-cautious. A confirmed close above $2.00 is required to shift momentum back to bullish accumulation.
Ether (ETH) Trade Setup: Support Defense at $3,000
Buying pressure has returned to the ETH market, halting the recent correction. The price action at $3,013 suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Technical Outlook: • Trend: Recovery / Reversal. • Key Support: The $3,000 level is acting as a hard floor. • Volume: Sellers are exhausted, and bids are filling the order book.