CRYPTOFACIL
No espaço da CRYPTOFACIL, compartilhamos nossos estudos, análises, guias educacionais e insights. Valorizamos o conhecimento com foco no aprendizado contínuo.
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🚨 PARAGUAY CHANGES THE GAME FOR CRYPTO — AND NOW?
In recent days, the government of Paraguay made an important decision that directly impacts those who use cryptocurrencies in the country, whether residents, foreign investors, or even those who simply transact values there.
📌 What happened?
The tax authority of Paraguay (DNIT) published Resolution No. 47/2026, which:
• Requires exchanges, platforms, and crypto services to report user data
• Requires that individuals and legal entities also report operations above $5,000 per year
📌 What happened?
The tax authority of Paraguay (DNIT) published Resolution No. 47/2026, which:
• Requires exchanges, platforms, and crypto services to report user data
• Requires that individuals and legal entities also report operations above $5,000 per year
CASE STUDIES. Applying the 12 stages of analysis to the coins in my current portfolio.
Step 8 — ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
In the crypto market, there are VERY important differences:
• narrative
• price
• on-chain behavior
And, many times, it is the on-chain that anticipates movements that have not yet appeared in the price.
📌 What we analyze in this step:
• movement of large wallets (whales)
• concentration and distribution of tokens
• inflow and outflow from exchanges
• signals of accumulation or distribution
• growth (or contraction) of the user base
📊 Result of the ON-CHAIN analysis
In the crypto market, there are VERY important differences:
• narrative
• price
• on-chain behavior
And, many times, it is the on-chain that anticipates movements that have not yet appeared in the price.
📌 What we analyze in this step:
• movement of large wallets (whales)
• concentration and distribution of tokens
• inflow and outflow from exchanges
• signals of accumulation or distribution
• growth (or contraction) of the user base
📊 Result of the ON-CHAIN analysis
CASE STUDIES. Applying the 12 analysis stages to the coins in my current portfolio.
Stage 5 — MARKET COMPETITION AND POSITIONING
In the previous stages, we analyzed important aspects such as the project's value proposition and who is behind its construction.
But there is an essential question in any market:
where exactly this project is positioned within its sector?
Because in the crypto market, there is rarely just one project trying to solve the same problem.
Normally, there are several protocols competing for the same space.
That’s why, at this stage, we mainly analyze:
In the previous stages, we analyzed important aspects such as the project's value proposition and who is behind its construction.
But there is an essential question in any market:
where exactly this project is positioned within its sector?
Because in the crypto market, there is rarely just one project trying to solve the same problem.
Normally, there are several protocols competing for the same space.
That’s why, at this stage, we mainly analyze:
CASE STUDIES. Applying the 12 analysis steps to the coins in my current portfolio.
Step 4 — ACTIVITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECOSYSTEM
In the previous step, we analyzed the real utility of the token, that is, whether the token has a necessary role within the functioning of the protocol.
But even when a token has a clear utility, there is still another important question:
Does the project continue to evolve over time?
In the crypto market, relevant projects do not remain static.
They constantly evolve through:
• protocol updates
• technical improvements
• new integrations
In the previous step, we analyzed the real utility of the token, that is, whether the token has a necessary role within the functioning of the protocol.
But even when a token has a clear utility, there is still another important question:
Does the project continue to evolve over time?
In the crypto market, relevant projects do not remain static.
They constantly evolve through:
• protocol updates
• technical improvements
• new integrations
Many of us are already aware of Ripple's repurchase of $750 million in shares, so I won't repeat the news.
The point that caught my attention about the repurchase was that it is being done with a valuation close to $50 billion for the company, even while it remains private.
To me, this signals two VERY important things:
a VERY STRONG financial structure and CONFIDENCE in the project itself.
The repurchase does not directly change the mechanics of $XRP … but it reinforces the scale that Ripple's infrastructure has been achieving.
I would like your opinion:
📊 What does this Ripple repurchase mean for $XRP ?
The point that caught my attention about the repurchase was that it is being done with a valuation close to $50 billion for the company, even while it remains private.
To me, this signals two VERY important things:
a VERY STRONG financial structure and CONFIDENCE in the project itself.
The repurchase does not directly change the mechanics of $XRP … but it reinforces the scale that Ripple's infrastructure has been achieving.
I would like your opinion:
📊 What does this Ripple repurchase mean for $XRP ?
Sinal positivo para o projeto
45%
Não muda nada para o token
33%
Subavaliado ainda pelo mercado
22%
9 votes • Voting closed
CASE STUDIES. Applying the 12 stages of analysis to the coins in my wallet.
Stage 1 — INITIAL FILTER
In the previous series, I shared the process I use to analyze projects, structured in 12 stages, to evaluate the cryptocurrency market with more criteria and less impulsiveness.
Now let's apply the same process to the coins in my current wallet.
And the first stage is always the same:
INITIAL FILTER
This stage does not determine if a project is good or bad.
It answers something simpler and very important:
Is it worth continuing to analyze this project in depth?
In the previous series, I shared the process I use to analyze projects, structured in 12 stages, to evaluate the cryptocurrency market with more criteria and less impulsiveness.
Now let's apply the same process to the coins in my current wallet.
And the first stage is always the same:
INITIAL FILTER
This stage does not determine if a project is good or bad.
It answers something simpler and very important:
Is it worth continuing to analyze this project in depth?
CASE STUDIES. Applying the 12 steps of analysis to the coins in my current wallet.
NEW SERIES: Analysis of real projects for more informed decisions.
In the previous series, I shared the process I use to analyze projects, structured in 12 steps, thus seeking to evaluate the cryptocurrency market with more criteria and less impulsivity.
We talked about fundamentals, tokenomics, liquidity, real use, structural risks, and decision-making.
Now the moment has come to apply this process to MY CURRENT WALLET, using exactly the same steps presented in the previous series, making the exercise even more transparent.
In the previous series, I shared the process I use to analyze projects, structured in 12 steps, thus seeking to evaluate the cryptocurrency market with more criteria and less impulsivity.
We talked about fundamentals, tokenomics, liquidity, real use, structural risks, and decision-making.
Now the moment has come to apply this process to MY CURRENT WALLET, using exactly the same steps presented in the previous series, making the exercise even more transparent.
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision Making
DAY 12 — Real decision making
After 11 steps, the most important moment arrives:
Decide.
But decide based on method, not on euphoria, fear, or external influence.
This is the point where analysis turns into positioning.
1️⃣ Complete checklist
Before investing, review:
• Offer structure (Market Cap, FDV, Supply)
• Tokenomics
• Value proposition
• Team and investors
• Competition
• Actual use and revenue
• Value capture
• On-chain data
• Liquidity
• Structural risks
After 11 steps, the most important moment arrives:
Decide.
But decide based on method, not on euphoria, fear, or external influence.
This is the point where analysis turns into positioning.
1️⃣ Complete checklist
Before investing, review:
• Offer structure (Market Cap, FDV, Supply)
• Tokenomics
• Value proposition
• Team and investors
• Competition
• Actual use and revenue
• Value capture
• On-chain data
• Liquidity
• Structural risks
🔎 PRACTICAL ANALYSIS FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision Making
DAY 11 — Risk structure and allocation
Risk cannot be eliminated.
Risk is measured.
After analyzing fundamentals, liquidity, use, governance, and structure… we reach the stage that separates INVESTOR from GAMBLER:
How much of my capital can be here?
1️⃣ Position size
Objective question:
• What % of my portfolio does this asset represent?
• Is it proportional to the identified structural risk?
High conviction ≠ irresponsible allocation.
2️⃣ Correlation with the rest of the portfolio
• Is it highly correlated with Bitcoin?
Risk cannot be eliminated.
Risk is measured.
After analyzing fundamentals, liquidity, use, governance, and structure… we reach the stage that separates INVESTOR from GAMBLER:
How much of my capital can be here?
1️⃣ Position size
Objective question:
• What % of my portfolio does this asset represent?
• Is it proportional to the identified structural risk?
High conviction ≠ irresponsible allocation.
2️⃣ Correlation with the rest of the portfolio
• Is it highly correlated with Bitcoin?
🧐 And now, what do we do about our financial plan?
With the CRYPTO market reacting negatively to a real geopolitical shock…
🧨 According to reports from the international press, the Iranian response to the joint attack by the USA and Israel was not just rhetoric; there was IMMEDIATE military RETALIATION.
Iranian forces allegedly launched missiles against Israeli targets and positions associated with the USA in the Gulf region, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
❓ Questions that linger in my mind:
• Do we continue buying and accumulating OUR COINS in moments like this?
• Or would the best strategy be to pause, or even reduce exposure and observe the market before opening new positions?
I would really like to know your strategy for this scenario.
With the CRYPTO market reacting negatively to a real geopolitical shock…
🧨 According to reports from the international press, the Iranian response to the joint attack by the USA and Israel was not just rhetoric; there was IMMEDIATE military RETALIATION.
Iranian forces allegedly launched missiles against Israeli targets and positions associated with the USA in the Gulf region, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
❓ Questions that linger in my mind:
• Do we continue buying and accumulating OUR COINS in moments like this?
• Or would the best strategy be to pause, or even reduce exposure and observe the market before opening new positions?
I would really like to know your strategy for this scenario.
🤔 But why does $BTC fall, suffer, when serious news of conflict arises?
Shouldn't we see Bitcoin rise as a "safe haven"?
The United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran in the early hours of February 28, 2026, in a joint operation involving bombings and airstrikes on targets in Iranian territory. The action was confirmed by multiple international agencies and authorities from both countries.
How long will Bitcoin continue to behave as a risky asset, and not as "digital gold," in moments of unexpected geopolitical shock?
Shouldn't we see Bitcoin rise as a "safe haven"?
The United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran in the early hours of February 28, 2026, in a joint operation involving bombings and airstrikes on targets in Iranian territory. The action was confirmed by multiple international agencies and authorities from both countries.
How long will Bitcoin continue to behave as a risky asset, and not as "digital gold," in moments of unexpected geopolitical shock?
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision
DAY 10 — Structural Risks
Now we do not analyze potential.
We analyze fragility.
Structural risks are internal vulnerabilities of the protocol.
They exist independently of the investor.
They are failures that can compromise the project due to its own structure.
A project does not break just because of price.
Break due to technical, economic, or regulatory fragility.
Structural risk is one that does not appear on the graph, but when it does appear, it's already too late.
1️⃣ Technical centralization
Essential questions:
Now we do not analyze potential.
We analyze fragility.
Structural risks are internal vulnerabilities of the protocol.
They exist independently of the investor.
They are failures that can compromise the project due to its own structure.
A project does not break just because of price.
Break due to technical, economic, or regulatory fragility.
Structural risk is one that does not appear on the graph, but when it does appear, it's already too late.
1️⃣ Technical centralization
Essential questions:
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision
DAY 09 — Liquidity and market depth
Liquidity is not about the price going up, it's about being able to execute.
An asset can have strong fundamentals, but without liquidity, it is not operable at scale.
🎯 1️⃣ Spread
Spread is the difference between the best buying price (bid) and the best selling price (ask).
It is not liquidity itself, but a direct reflection of it.
The higher the liquidity:
✔️ Greater competition among orders
✔️ Deeper book
✔️ Smaller spread
High spread generally indicates:
Liquidity is not about the price going up, it's about being able to execute.
An asset can have strong fundamentals, but without liquidity, it is not operable at scale.
🎯 1️⃣ Spread
Spread is the difference between the best buying price (bid) and the best selling price (ask).
It is not liquidity itself, but a direct reflection of it.
The higher the liquidity:
✔️ Greater competition among orders
✔️ Deeper book
✔️ Smaller spread
High spread generally indicates:
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision Making
DAY 08 — On-Chain Analysis
On-chain means analyzing data recorded directly on the blockchain, transactions, wallets, movements, and real network activity.
Price shows consequence.
On-chain data shows behavior.
The market can tell any story.
The blockchain records the truth.
🎯 1️⃣ Growth of addresses
• Is the number of active wallets increasing?
• Is the growth consistent or sporadic?
• Is there excessive concentration in few addresses?
📍 Where to check:
On-chain means analyzing data recorded directly on the blockchain, transactions, wallets, movements, and real network activity.
Price shows consequence.
On-chain data shows behavior.
The market can tell any story.
The blockchain records the truth.
🎯 1️⃣ Growth of addresses
• Is the number of active wallets increasing?
• Is the growth consistent or sporadic?
• Is there excessive concentration in few addresses?
📍 Where to check:
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision Making
DAY 07 — Token value capture
The project can grow.
Protocol can generate revenue.
But the central question is:
Does the token capture this value?
If the project's growth does not benefit the token... the investor is left out of the equation.
🎯 1️⃣ Does the token have a real function?
Objective questions:
• Is the token necessary to use the protocol?
• Is it required for governance?
• Is it used as collateral?
• Is it just an incentive token?
📍 Where to check:
🔎 Whitepaper (Official technical document)
The project can grow.
Protocol can generate revenue.
But the central question is:
Does the token capture this value?
If the project's growth does not benefit the token... the investor is left out of the equation.
🎯 1️⃣ Does the token have a real function?
Objective questions:
• Is the token necessary to use the protocol?
• Is it required for governance?
• Is it used as collateral?
• Is it just an incentive token?
📍 Where to check:
🔎 Whitepaper (Official technical document)
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING. Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision Making
DAY 06 — Real usage, revenue, and TVL (Total Value Locked / Total Value Locked)
REMEMBER ALWAYS:
Narrative supports price.
REAL usage sustains VALUE.
Project without use is a promise.
Token without activity is expectation.
Objective questions:
🎯 1️⃣ Is there real usage?
• Is the protocol being used today?
• Is there consistent transaction volume?
• Is there user growth?
📍 Where to check:
🔎 DeFiLlama (Total Value Locked = Total Value Locked)
https://defillama.com
🔎 Dune Analytics (On-chain data panels)
REMEMBER ALWAYS:
Narrative supports price.
REAL usage sustains VALUE.
Project without use is a promise.
Token without activity is expectation.
Objective questions:
🎯 1️⃣ Is there real usage?
• Is the protocol being used today?
• Is there consistent transaction volume?
• Is there user growth?
📍 Where to check:
🔎 DeFiLlama (Total Value Locked = Total Value Locked)
https://defillama.com
🔎 Dune Analytics (On-chain data panels)
🔎 PRACTICAL ANALYSIS FOR REAL DECISION MAKING Series | 12 Steps of Real Decision
DAY 05 — Competition and market positioning
No project exists alone.
Before asking if a project is good...
ask against whom it competes.
If you don’t know who the competitors are, you don’t understand the size of the challenge.
🎯 1️⃣ Who are the direct competitors?
• Are there projects that do exactly the same thing?
• Which one has greater adoption?
• Who already has a market advantage?
📍 Where to analyze:
• CoinMarketCap → “Similar Projects”
• Messari → Sector comparisons
No project exists alone.
Before asking if a project is good...
ask against whom it competes.
If you don’t know who the competitors are, you don’t understand the size of the challenge.
🎯 1️⃣ Who are the direct competitors?
• Are there projects that do exactly the same thing?
• Which one has greater adoption?
• Who already has a market advantage?
📍 Where to analyze:
• CoinMarketCap → “Similar Projects”
• Messari → Sector comparisons
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING
DAY 4 - Team and strategic investors
Who is behind the project defines its credibility.
Before investing in a token, you are investing in people.
Technology can be copied.
Narrative can be built.
But EXECUTION depends on who is in COMMAND.
1️⃣ Founders
Objective questions:
• Who created the project?
• Have they founded other companies?
• Do they have a background in technology, finance, or blockchain?
• Have they delivered something relevant before?
📍 Where to find:
• Official website → Tab “Team” or “About”
Who is behind the project defines its credibility.
Before investing in a token, you are investing in people.
Technology can be copied.
Narrative can be built.
But EXECUTION depends on who is in COMMAND.
1️⃣ Founders
Objective questions:
• Who created the project?
• Have they founded other companies?
• Do they have a background in technology, finance, or blockchain?
• Have they delivered something relevant before?
📍 Where to find:
• Official website → Tab “Team” or “About”
🔎 ANALYSIS IN PRACTICE FOR REAL DECISION MAKING
DAY 03 - Value proposition and competitive advantage
After filtering numbers (Day 1)
After understanding the tokenomics (Day 2)
Now comes the structural question:
Does this project solve something real?
Because if it doesn't solve, the rest doesn't matter.
🎯 What are we evaluating today
• Problem
• Solution
• Product
• Differentiator
• Real competitive advantage
1️⃣ What problem does the project solve?
📍 Where to find
🔗 Official project website (section “About”, “Mission”, “Product”)
🔗 Whitepaper (section “Problem Statement”)
After filtering numbers (Day 1)
After understanding the tokenomics (Day 2)
Now comes the structural question:
Does this project solve something real?
Because if it doesn't solve, the rest doesn't matter.
🎯 What are we evaluating today
• Problem
• Solution
• Product
• Differentiator
• Real competitive advantage
1️⃣ What problem does the project solve?
📍 Where to find
🔗 Official project website (section “About”, “Mission”, “Product”)
🔗 Whitepaper (section “Problem Statement”)
🇸🇻 EL SALVADOR ABANDONED BITCOIN ???
The short and quick answer is: NO.
But the smart answer is: CHANGED the game.
In 2021, El Salvador made Bitcoin mandatory legal tender.
In 2025, after an agreement with the IMF, the country:
✔ Removed the requirement for acceptance
✔ Made the use voluntary
✔ Adjusted the Bitcoin Law
This does NOT mean abandonment.
It means strategic adaptation.
🟡 And they continue to buy BTC ???
Here is the point that generates confusion:
🔹 The government claims to continue adding Bitcoin to reserves.
🔹 HOWEVER… Reports linked to the agreement with the IMF indicate that purchases with public funds have been DISCONTINUED since February/2025.
In other words:
There may be a difference between "buying with public money" and "moving already existing reserves".
Different narratives. Different interpretations.
🔴 But….. Are they selling?
There is NO solid evidence of systematic selling of reserves.
Movement between wallets does not mean selling; it could just be a reorganization of custody.
🎯 What does this really show?
El Salvador has NOT ABANDONED Bitcoin.
It has moved from a purely ideological stance to a diplomatic and economic posture.
And this CHANGES the macro reading.
💭 Question for you:
If a country reduces public exposure but maintains reserves… is this a RETREAT or STRATEGIC MATURITY?
📊 POLL
El Salvador changed the Bitcoin law.
For you, was this:
The short and quick answer is: NO.
But the smart answer is: CHANGED the game.
In 2021, El Salvador made Bitcoin mandatory legal tender.
In 2025, after an agreement with the IMF, the country:
✔ Removed the requirement for acceptance
✔ Made the use voluntary
✔ Adjusted the Bitcoin Law
This does NOT mean abandonment.
It means strategic adaptation.
🟡 And they continue to buy BTC ???
Here is the point that generates confusion:
🔹 The government claims to continue adding Bitcoin to reserves.
🔹 HOWEVER… Reports linked to the agreement with the IMF indicate that purchases with public funds have been DISCONTINUED since February/2025.
In other words:
There may be a difference between "buying with public money" and "moving already existing reserves".
Different narratives. Different interpretations.
🔴 But….. Are they selling?
There is NO solid evidence of systematic selling of reserves.
Movement between wallets does not mean selling; it could just be a reorganization of custody.
🎯 What does this really show?
El Salvador has NOT ABANDONED Bitcoin.
It has moved from a purely ideological stance to a diplomatic and economic posture.
And this CHANGES the macro reading.
💭 Question for you:
If a country reduces public exposure but maintains reserves… is this a RETREAT or STRATEGIC MATURITY?
📊 POLL
El Salvador changed the Bitcoin law.
For you, was this:
🔘Ajuste, por pressão do FMI
40%
🔘Enfraquecimento da tese BTC
0%
🔘Estratégia preservar reservas
0%
🔘Movimento neutro, segue plano
60%
5 votes • Voting closed
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