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Newbie's Guide to Position Management in Crypto ⭐ If you're a gambler, love to YOLO, thrive on wild swings, crave excitement, and enjoy the quick rush, you're probably not too concerned about position management; ⭐ If you're drowning in debt and getting daily reminders from online lenders, you likely don't have the patience to learn about position management; all you're chasing is the dream of sudden wealth and fantasy. ⭐ If you're a seasoned bag holder who's really felt the pain of losses, been wrecked by the market, and experienced multiple liquidations, you probably already have a sense of position management and experience. ⭐ Most of the casualties in this market aren't due to failed strategies or poor skills, but rather from mistakes in position management, whether it's over-leveraging or adding to losing positions.
$BTC $ETH Current major support and resistance (4H level) overview, can serve as a reference for entry points in the current choppy market (shorts still remain the overall direction).
The $BTC BTC short entry point is already showing around 1300 points of profit space, you can take some profits off the table. If you're looking to ride out the whole position, just be mentally prepared and manage your leverage accordingly, as this might just be a shakeout while we test the highs; the market isn’t quite ready for a one-sided downturn yet.
The daily chart still shows the futures gap acting as a resistance zone (refer to previous posts), and we just grazed the edge again without a decisive fill.
In short, good entry points are worth the wait, and profits are the reward for those who have the patience to hold on.
The $BTC BTC short entry point is already showing around 1300 points of profit space, you can take some profits off the table. If you're looking to ride out the whole position, just be mentally prepared and manage your leverage accordingly, as this might just be a shakeout while we test the highs; the market isn’t quite ready for a one-sided downturn yet.
The daily chart still shows the futures gap acting as a resistance zone (refer to previous posts), and we just grazed the edge again without a decisive fill.
In short, good entry points are worth the wait, and profits are the reward for those who have the patience to hold on.
🥘 CME daily futures gap (the gap itself acts as a resistance zone)
⚡️ Bitcoin: 79995-81240 ⚡️ Ethereum: 2473-2641
These are our key areas for re-entering shorts or averaging down. We merge the two ranges for a union instead of an intersection, resulting in:
⚡️ Bitcoin: 78896-81240 ⚡️ Ethereum: 2473-2641
So, regarding the range above 👆🏻, we will still employ a reverse pyramid order strategy to manage our positions, yielding:
🔥 Current short entry (averaging down) method:
⚡️ $BTC Reverse pyramid orders 2:3:5 or 1:2:4
79088.8 80088.8 81088.8
⚡️ $ETH Reverse pyramid orders 2:3:5 or 1:2:4
2488.8 2558.8 2628.8
⚠️ Bullish trend termination zone:
⚡️ Bitcoin breaks below 73500-72500 support zone ⚡️ Ethereum breaks below 2230-2260 support zone
♥️ Current long entry method:
Not considering this for now. For those thinking about it, small positions with wider stop losses based on support levels should be prepared for spikes and stop-outs.
㊙️ Additional:
🥘 Ethereum is currently weak, but generally, a shift from weak to strong can be very powerful, so shorts are viable, but focus on shorting high: don't short Ethereum too low, or you'll get burned. If you’re aggressive and can’t resist, open a small short position at lower levels (like around 2380).
🥘 In crypto, anything can happen, so taking a step back, if the gap is filled and we see a super squeeze rally, what are the upper limits: BTC (83200-86600), ETH (2755-2834), these are the last Vegas resistance levels on the daily; if we hold above these, we can start discussing the degree of a bull market, but it's not necessary to worry, this isn’t a short-term trading expectation or consideration.
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What timeframes should we look at for futures gaps? What are the probabilities of futures gap fills?
What's the difference between a futures gap and FVG? Chart: Current Bitcoin daily futures gap (You can search BTC1! or ETH1! on TradingView to view the futures candlestick)
⭐ What is a futures gap and what causes it? The CME futures gap for Bitcoin and Ethereum refers to the price voids (gaps) on the charts of Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that arise due to trading time discrepancies.
🥘 CME daily futures gap (the gap itself acts as a resistance zone)
⚡️ Bitcoin: 79995-81240 ⚡️ Ethereum: 2473-2641
These are our key areas for re-entering shorts or averaging down. We merge the two ranges for a union instead of an intersection, resulting in:
⚡️ Bitcoin: 78896-81240 ⚡️ Ethereum: 2473-2641
So, regarding the range above 👆🏻, we will still employ a reverse pyramid order strategy to manage our positions, yielding:
🔥 Current short entry (averaging down) method:
⚡️ $BTC Reverse pyramid orders 2:3:5 or 1:2:4
79088.8 80088.8 81088.8
⚡️ $ETH Reverse pyramid orders 2:3:5 or 1:2:4
2488.8 2558.8 2628.8
⚠️ Bullish trend termination zone:
⚡️ Bitcoin breaks below 73500-72500 support zone ⚡️ Ethereum breaks below 2230-2260 support zone
♥️ Current long entry method:
Not considering this for now. For those thinking about it, small positions with wider stop losses based on support levels should be prepared for spikes and stop-outs.
㊙️ Additional:
🥘 Ethereum is currently weak, but generally, a shift from weak to strong can be very powerful, so shorts are viable, but focus on shorting high: don't short Ethereum too low, or you'll get burned. If you’re aggressive and can’t resist, open a small short position at lower levels (like around 2380).
🥘 In crypto, anything can happen, so taking a step back, if the gap is filled and we see a super squeeze rally, what are the upper limits: BTC (83200-86600), ETH (2755-2834), these are the last Vegas resistance levels on the daily; if we hold above these, we can start discussing the degree of a bull market, but it's not necessary to worry, this isn’t a short-term trading expectation or consideration.
Look at the picture, take this example, clarify the logic, know what you are waiting for, what you need to do, and what the possible outcome might be. Think it through, be able to accept it, and just do it.
Be patient and wait for the opportunity from above, rather than risking chasing after the basic logic again. It is emphasized again that many people find it hard to turn around. Trading has never been a two-way rush (going long and short at the same time), but waiting for that direction with the highest probability.
What timeframes should we look at for futures gaps? What are the probabilities of futures gap fills?
What's the difference between a futures gap and FVG? Chart: Current Bitcoin daily futures gap (You can search BTC1! or ETH1! on TradingView to view the futures candlestick)
⭐ What is a futures gap and what causes it? The CME futures gap for Bitcoin and Ethereum refers to the price voids (gaps) on the charts of Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that arise due to trading time discrepancies.
$BTC $ETH As mentioned in the previous quote, as shown in the figure, the large Ethereum near-field gap has been filled. The upper super-wide gap is not within the consideration range for shorting in the short term. Trade where the market goes; when trading short-term, do not think about waiting for the large upper gap to be filled. If waiting for the large upper gap to be filled, do not fear missing out or being out of position.
Look at the picture, take this example, clarify the logic, know what you are waiting for, what you need to do, and what the possible outcome might be. Think it through, be able to accept it, and just do it.
Be patient and wait for the opportunity from above, rather than risking chasing after the basic logic again. It is emphasized again that many people find it hard to turn around. Trading has never been a two-way rush (going long and short at the same time), but waiting for that direction with the highest probability.
The market currently aligns with the expectations set on Sunday (see reference). This week starts with an initial rise, and the daily level large Vegas channel resistance zone (optimal major shorting area) will move downwards daily. Currently
⚡️ $BTC 78935-80794 ⚡️ $ETH 2501-2570
🔥 The method for entering short positions remains unchanged: low leverage + light positions + wide stop-loss:
⚡️ Bitcoin
Continue to place inverted pyramid limit orders 1:2:3:4
77888.8 (can be adjusted to 77288.8) 78888.8 79888.8 80888.8 (can be adjusted to 80688.8)
⚡️ Ethereum
Initial position: 2471 (can be adjusted to 2418.8) Add-on position: 2501-2570
Improved a practical ultra-short scalping trading system (UT+STC+Hull), mainly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum (other unknown), suitable for 15-minute levels, adjusted some parameters to play around with~
Running tests to see the win rate, need more data for testing. If interested, you can research the win rate feedback yourself by using Ant Warehouse, keeping the current settings I adjusted as appropriate.
🔥 Pay attention to the instructions in the image!
🥘 Those with TradingView membership can click the link below to import for testing:
https://cn.tradingview.com/chart/4SQxbc3r/
#加密市场反弹 #How will the US-Iran conflict develop next?
The market currently aligns with the expectations set on Sunday (see reference). This week starts with an initial rise, and the daily level large Vegas channel resistance zone (optimal major shorting area) will move downwards daily. Currently
⚡️ $BTC 78935-80794 ⚡️ $ETH 2501-2570
🔥 The method for entering short positions remains unchanged: low leverage + light positions + wide stop-loss:
⚡️ Bitcoin
Continue to place inverted pyramid limit orders 1:2:3:4
77888.8 (can be adjusted to 77288.8) 78888.8 79888.8 80888.8 (can be adjusted to 80688.8)
⚡️ Ethereum
Initial position: 2471 (can be adjusted to 2418.8) Add-on position: 2501-2570
Temporarily, let's look at next week for going up first and then down, the reasons are as follows, for reference only. If you have your own trading logic and different views, be sure to stick to your own direction. The guiding principle of trading should be to seek inward rather than looking outward:
1. CME futures gap filling 2. Daily FVG filling 3. Funding rate is extremely negative 4. BTC current long-short ratio is extremely low 5. Liquidation demand above 6. Use next week's negotiation news to complete TACO hunt up and down
❤️ Short entry method:
BTC continues to set up a pyramid of orders in a 1:2:3:4 gradient
77888.8 (can be adjusted to 77288.8) 78888.8 79888.8 80888.8 (can be adjusted to 80688.8)
ETH
Initial position: 2471 (can be adjusted to 2418.8) Supplement: 2501-2570
Initial position supplement at a ratio of 3:7 or 2:8
♥️ Repeated reminder:
🔥 It’s not about going up to short later, but waiting to short. The worst outcome is missing the short, not being trapped by going long. It’s like wanting to marry Liu Yifei and being happy after marrying her; these are two completely different certainties.~
🔥 Of course, waiting to short at a high doesn’t prevent you from wanting to chase a short at the current price, provided you have absolute position management, you can respond freely.
🔥 The overall direction is still biased towards high shorts. This week, there is a high possibility of a daily-level trend turning down, with the downward cycle expected to appear by the next full moon (around May 2).
Continue to observe, currently, the Bitcoin 4H level channel is very nice, with sufficient and healthy pullbacks, and the bullish trend is intact. The 4H bearish volume has released over half, and selling pressure has clearly retreated from high levels, but it is not completely finished yet. At the same time, there is a divergence in volume during the upward process: when the price rises, trading volume does not increase synchronously, and there are even signs of volume reduction, with bullish momentum also showing signs of weakening.
There is no need to focus on the daily weakness of $ETH (its consistent nature); it did not hold the support around 2306 but found support near 2256. Bitcoin has not broken down, and Ethereum will not fall unilaterally either; if Bitcoin rallies, it will go up as well.
Just focus on Bitcoin, as long as Bitcoin 73500 has not been effectively broken down (if the volume continues to break but cannot recover), the overall upward trend has not been damaged.
🌷 This is the current situation, the market is moving and we are watching; the only constant in the market is that it is changing in real-time, and the changes require us to maintain sensitivity, adjusting direction and perspective at any time.
🍺 For well-trained traders, at any time, there is no need to be certain!
Temporarily, let's look at next week for going up first and then down, the reasons are as follows, for reference only. If you have your own trading logic and different views, be sure to stick to your own direction. The guiding principle of trading should be to seek inward rather than looking outward:
1. CME futures gap filling 2. Daily FVG filling 3. Funding rate is extremely negative 4. BTC current long-short ratio is extremely low 5. Liquidation demand above 6. Use next week's negotiation news to complete TACO hunt up and down
❤️ Short entry method:
BTC continues to set up a pyramid of orders in a 1:2:3:4 gradient
77888.8 (can be adjusted to 77288.8) 78888.8 79888.8 80888.8 (can be adjusted to 80688.8)
ETH
Initial position: 2471 (can be adjusted to 2418.8) Supplement: 2501-2570
Initial position supplement at a ratio of 3:7 or 2:8
♥️ Repeated reminder:
🔥 It’s not about going up to short later, but waiting to short. The worst outcome is missing the short, not being trapped by going long. It’s like wanting to marry Liu Yifei and being happy after marrying her; these are two completely different certainties.~
🔥 Of course, waiting to short at a high doesn’t prevent you from wanting to chase a short at the current price, provided you have absolute position management, you can respond freely.
🔥 The overall direction is still biased towards high shorts. This week, there is a high possibility of a daily-level trend turning down, with the downward cycle expected to appear by the next full moon (around May 2).
Temporarily, let's look at next week for going up first and then down, the reasons are as follows, for reference only. If you have your own trading logic and different views, be sure to stick to your own direction. The guiding principle of trading should be to seek inward rather than looking outward:
1. CME futures gap filling 2. Daily FVG filling 3. Funding rate is extremely negative 4. BTC current long-short ratio is extremely low 5. Liquidation demand above 6. Use next week's negotiation news to complete TACO hunt up and down
❤️ Short entry method:
BTC continues to set up a pyramid of orders in a 1:2:3:4 gradient
77888.8 (can be adjusted to 77288.8) 78888.8 79888.8 80888.8 (can be adjusted to 80688.8)
ETH
Initial position: 2471 (can be adjusted to 2418.8) Supplement: 2501-2570
Initial position supplement at a ratio of 3:7 or 2:8
♥️ Repeated reminder:
🔥 It’s not about going up to short later, but waiting to short. The worst outcome is missing the short, not being trapped by going long. It’s like wanting to marry Liu Yifei and being happy after marrying her; these are two completely different certainties.~
🔥 Of course, waiting to short at a high doesn’t prevent you from wanting to chase a short at the current price, provided you have absolute position management, you can respond freely.
🔥 The overall direction is still biased towards high shorts. This week, there is a high possibility of a daily-level trend turning down, with the downward cycle expected to appear by the next full moon (around May 2).