灯塔说

WTI crude oil is about to break 100 today
Iran has proposed three major negotiation conditions: "Recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression"
(This is a declaration of defeat)
Last night, two oil tankers were attacked by Iranian drones in Iraqi waters, causing the country's oil terminals to halt operations
Just now, Oman has also fully evacuated key oil terminals to prevent attacks.

There is no way out; Iran is being kicked like this
They only have the geographical advantage to make their opponents pay a price
This situation will not ease in the short term
Even if it eases, it only provides another opportunity for adjustments
This situation is likely to last for a few months

Yesterday, I took profits on this order in two steps
First target 105
Second target 120
#国际油价突破100美元 #原油

In terms of trends, we should look at the daily and weekly charts.

Back in January this year, I mentioned that 75K is a critical level.
Only a truly effective drop below 75K constitutes a complete establishment of a downward trend (referring to the black neckline on the daily chart).
Breaking below that neckline is considered a confirmation of the end of the bull market in 2025.

From the current structure, there are two interpretations:
Either it is a fourth wave rebound,
Or it is a fifth wave bottoming.

From a more standard pattern perspective, it actually looks more like a fourth wave rebound structure,
With another fifth wave decline to follow.
However, even if we are entering the fifth wave, we are already approaching the end of it.

So whether waiting for a rebound or considering bottom-fishing,
Buying in batches as the spot price declines in the later stages is a highly cost-effective operation.
As for whether the price is 50K or 30K, there is really no need to get too hung up on it.

From a structural deduction perspective,
I believe there is still a relatively high probability of a stage low occurring in the range of 56K–52K, which is worth paying attention to.
#BTC

If the gap of crude oil between 69-68 is not filled
now is the best support
next starting point!
#原油

Yesterday a friend spoke a truth, surrounded by dead bulls
There are no dead bears
Resulting in being in a bull market without fear, and being in a bear market without knowledge
Should make more dead bear friends
Who among you is a dead bear
Let's be friends!

Trading has become diversified now
No need to worry about varieties without volatility

#BTC #ETH #黄金 #原油 #美股
can all be completed on centralized platforms
One-stop service!

Transaction Records
Bitcoin ETH retains the grid for oscillation
Playing with a small position in TradeFi

Today, Trump’s statement about ending the war caused a significant drop in high-priced crude oil
The local rebound within the market range is also approaching a high
No more chasing the rise, waiting for a pullback to buy more!

Taking advantage of the crude oil pullback, went long on crude oil
The bullish expectation for crude oil is only due to the war
Based on the market prediction from polymarket
The favorable outlook for crude oil is still present
The war won't end in the short term

#Oli #usoil

What is going on?
The US is attacking Iran, and gold rose but has started to fall
Today marks the 10th day, and crude oil is still rising at the opening

The previous rise in gold was before the war started; now that the war has begun, the favorable impact has landed
The upward trend has ended gently!
Is the rise in crude oil not over yet? Could the impact of Hormuz be intensifying?
#XAU #原油

If there is any coincidence, it is purely coincidental!
Structurally, at first glance, it looks quite similar.
When breaking down the nodes, there are similarities, but in reality, it can't be carved like this.

A macro reflection after a false breakout:
The rebound of 600,000 is as the market expected, but it did not completely reach the ideal rebound position as expected.
Upon review, it was found that reaching 74K was already beyond expectations.

In the context of war and a downtrend,
if it weren't for a temporary boost from the U.S. government, it really wouldn't have rebounded to 74K.

Currently falling back below 68K is normal; even if it falls further, it can be understood.
Why?

At the beginning, I mentioned breaking down nodes. A similar point in the current structure is June 2022.
At that time, it was the peak of inflation in the U.S., but the price still went down before moving sideways to build a base.

Last night's non-farm payroll report, although insufficient to drive inflation again,
but the ongoing war in Iran will definitely raise the risk of inflation in the short term.
This kind of risk will smoothly promote declines in a downtrend.

So for the current market, with U.S. indices at persistently high levels and the crypto market preemptively entering a bear phase,
if the conflict in Iran continues, one must remain cautiously optimistic!

For more extended thoughts, hit the follow button for the next live sharing!
#伊朗新领袖 #山寨季讨论量跌至两年新低 #加密市场回调

Tonight's non-farm data is relatively weak, with a short-term bearish bias on risk assets, a bullish bias on U.S. Treasuries, and the expectation for interest rate cuts has also become uncertain.

The market has adjusted its expectation for rate cuts this year from about 35 basis points to about 45 basis points after the non-farm data, but this is still lower than the approximately 55 basis points expected a week ago; moreover, the mainstream market still expects the March meeting to remain on hold, with rates maintained at 3.50%-3.75%. Because employment is weakening, but oil prices and geopolitical conflicts are raising inflation risks.
In February, U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly weaker than the market's initial expectation of an increase of 59,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. However, at the same time, hourly wages still increased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.8% year-on-year, and the employment data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 69,000.
This indicates that the labor market is indeed weakening.
Weak non-farm data will raise concerns in the market about the slowdown of the U.S. economy, which is bearish for U.S. stocks. After the data release, S&P 500 futures fell by about 0.84%, and NASDAQ futures fell by about 1.02%.
But this is bullish for U.S. Treasuries, as concerns about the economy heat up, funds will first go to buy bonds.

Looking solely at the non-farm data, the dollar should have softened; in fact, after the data, the dollar did indeed reduce its gains and turned soft in the short term; however, the market has also been dominated by the Middle Eastern conflict and soaring oil prices these days, with safe-haven demand and inflation concerns supporting the dollar, so the dollar did not experience a smooth decline.

In simple terms, this is bad news for economic growth, a slight positive for interest rate cut expectations, but due to inflation and war factors stirring up things, the market currently does not have a one-sided view, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to oscillate and pull.
#BTC

Wash back and forth!
The oscillation washing has gone numb

Two angles:
1. The expectation of a short-term rebound at 60K based on experience, but it hasn't truly emerged yet and remains in the 60,000 rebound oscillation phase;
2. The uncertain negative impact of geopolitical warfare may arrive at any time, and the daily downtrend may continue at any moment.

Perhaps these two points are what keep the market in an oscillating state.

It seems that this kind of day will need to last for a while!

#BTC

After the low point on February 6
The range trend formed by three waves of rises and falls (as shown in three colors) is very obvious
The four-hour chart shows a flag consolidation after a decline
The daily downtrend is still present

In the short term, one can only go long at highs and short at lows within the range
The equilibrium price of the range (thick black line) has a high risk of chasing long above it, and a high risk of chasing short below it

If you want to bet on a breakout, wait for the price to go long at the lower edge and hold a good position
If you want to follow the trend, go short at the upper edge of the flag waiting for a breakdown!
#BTC #ETH

The imitation season is over

The imagined imitation season that lasted four years is likely gone

No more expectations

In the past two days, Coinbase's Base decided to build its own "unified Base stack" to accelerate internal development and upgrades, no longer relying on Optimism's version releases, causing panic selling among investors.

This means that Base will retain all sequencer revenue, rather than sharing it with Optimism. This move questions the long-term sustainability of the Optimism Superchain, as Base is its largest partner.

As a result, $OP has directly dropped more than 30% in the past two days.

The price is only 0.13, down 97% from the bull market high of 4.8 dollars.

This is the leader of layer 2, such a trend is gone!

#op

Consolidation is approaching, a trend change is imminent! I choose to go long

The 60K pin rebound oscillation is finally coming to an end
The four-hour oscillation range is narrowing
The trend change is just a few days away
The larger trend is still a downward trend; currently, it is a small platform consolidation after a decline, belonging to a rebound repair market, and there are still no bottom reversal signals
The four-hour oscillation range (65K-72K) is converging, currently at the lower critical point
In the small timeframe, looking at the next two days, will it be a stop-loss rebound, or will it break down to start a new round of second testing?
From the order book perspective, although there are more sell orders in the past two days, the price hasn't collapsed significantly; instead, there seems to be an active absorption pattern
The price is again in the high risk-reward zone of the lower half
It is currently suitable for betting on the rebound range
If it stabilizes above 70K, then the high point should be equidistant from the previous rebound at 76K
#BTC $BTC

If I remember correctly, this is the 6th year!\nEvery year there are Binance peripherals for each session\nAlmost never absent (regardless of whether they are a "has-been KOL")\nThis reflects the exceptional cultural management of a company!\n\nOver the years, the person responsible for product selection should be the same person\nThe peripherals almost cover everyday practical items\nBut none have been repeated\nThis shows a glimpse!\n\nQuality speaks for itself, No. 1 in the industry\n\nIn short, heartfelt efforts are always perceived and can win people's hearts\n\nNo more flattery, everyone knows!\n\nWith this, thanks to all the bosses who have sent peripherals!\nWishing for great achievements in 2026, more cooperation\nCreating industry prosperity together!\n\nThank you @CZ @币安中文社区

A brother came to report, with a daily follow-up yield of 48%

A few days ago, several brothers came to ask about the follow-up

After providing the code, the simulated follow-up test yielded 48% the next day

Set 10,000 U, and one day earned back 4,800 U

Recently, the market has been fluctuating, oscillating between 68K-72K

Waiting for the market to break out, then we will determine the direction; currently in a rebound phase

The downward trend on the weekly line has already formed, as mentioned in the previous tweet
But the price of 60,000 is too far from the moving average, a rebound correction is inevitable
The rebound peak needs time; whether to directly provide a higher point or wait for the weekly EMA moving average to move closer (see EMA technical breakdown)
$ETH
$BTC

Wow! The competition prize has been issued

Even the fifth place has a prize
#Aster operation is strong

The competition was not enough, next time brothers participate more
Humanity must win back!

Thank you @Leonard_Aster @Aster DEX

Last night, in a few minutes, I made an A8?
No exaggeration, it really happened.
In the early hours, the market makers of ETH might have encountered anomalies,
with prices locked in a high-frequency oscillation between 2060 and 2030,
trading volumes surged dramatically, yet there was no directional movement.
Under normal circumstances, a surge in volume must lead to a direction, and this state of volume and price stagnation likely indicates a problem with the market maker mechanism (not elaborating here).

Experienced and sensitive traders seized this window,
went all in, and made a fortune.
One can only say: those who are brave and wise will find opportunities prepared for them.

But don't be envious.
Such opportunities are essentially extreme tests of experience and judgment.
If you don't have enough trading experience,
when faced with such a market,
could you dare to rush in with heavy positions?
Can you withstand the risk of liquidation?

Stay calm.
There are mountains beyond mountains, and there are people beyond people.
Be brave enough to acknowledge the excellence of others!
#ETH

Are the brothers starting to buy the dip? Is this the bottom?

This morning, it accelerated its decline to 60,000 (some spot prices seen in the 50s)
I've noticed many brothers starting to buy the dip
For the spot market, it's reasonable to gradually invest below 60,000
Only 30,000 points away from 30,000, but 60,000 points away from a new high
Thinking about it, it's all a good deal, and more importantly, it's about faith.

However, for trading, based on the market's performance, an objective evaluation is:
Currently, it belongs to a natural rebound after a sharp drop, and there are no bottoming signals or reversal of the bearish trend; it is still moving in a deleveraging liquidation trend, this is a rebound repair.
Day trading is still mainly focused on shorting the rebound; today, pay attention to shorting around 66-67K, and for strong rebound points, focus on shorting around 68.8-70
If it stabilizes in the 68.8-70 area, then continue to look up to 72K, and only if Ethereum stabilizes above 2000 should we consider a bottom structure turning bullish signal.

If the subsequent second test stops at 60K, then it may walk through a period of bottom range fluctuations; initially, pay attention to where the natural rebound high point is to define the range.

In summary, starting to buy the dip in the spot market for regular investments is reasonable, but I cannot chase high for contracts.

#BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH

Now, every time the market drops a point, there is a group of people facing liquidation. Those who have not been liquidated yet are on edge! This is the bullish mindset developed over the past year. A mindset formed in a year is very rigid, and it is difficult to reverse without experiencing significant setbacks. In a bull market, profits are in the bulls, and in a bear market, the bulls are also numb. Profits and losses have the same origin! As expected, institutions have entered the market; it's not that opportunities have come, but that retail investors' opportunities are gone! Survive! Finding a way to survive is crucial!! #BTC #ETH

Where does the first round of rebound after the big drop end?

The first wave of short covering and rebound squeezing after the big drop has begun
Next, we will see where strong supply appears to lead to another decline
The trend is still bearish, and the short-term rebound after the big drop should not be underestimated

I sincerely hope that right after the long positions are cleared, there won't be an immediate short squeeze
Playing with the market mentality!

Here's a short-term plan:
Follow the trend and go long with the rebound repair, provided that it does not break below 78K-77.5K, and it may touch two strong supply zones later, 80.6-82.0K, 84K-85K
Ethereum should also retrace to 2335-2320 without breaking and follow the trend to go long, with upper supply zones at 2450-2520 and 2650-2700 to look for short positions.

Currently holding a grid in the range of 65-85K starting from 77K, using grid accumulation profits during the range fluctuations is a good choice.
#BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH