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What is crypto winter?
The term "crypto winter"
was coined after the cryptocurrency crash of 2018 by venture capitalist
Eugene Etsebeth. It usually refers to a period when the cryptocurrency market demonstrates poor performance, which significantly affects investor sentiment.

Parallels with 2019

CryptoBullet notes that the current market structure almost entirely mirrors the phase of September 2019. At that time, Bitcoin consolidated about 30% below its local maximum after a seven-month rally, while altcoins were at a multi-year low relative to the first cryptocurrency.

Yearn Finance faced a serious attack on the yETH product, as a result of which the attacker managed to withdraw about a thousand ETH — nearly 3 million dollars — exploiting a vulnerability in the stable swap pool's operation. The exploit allowed in one action to create an almost infinite amount of yETH, quickly cash out liquidity, and partially cover tracks through Tornado Cash. Before the incident, the pool had about 11 million dollars, however, the main repositories of Yearn Finance — V2 and V3 — were not affected.

As blockchain data shows, the attack was built on a series of new smart contracts created solely for rapid execution and subsequent self-destruction. This scheme helped the attacker inflate the supply of yETH, withdraw assets, and remove critically important transaction traces. A representative of Yearn Finance confirmed the fact of the hack, emphasizing that the damage is limited only to the LST pool, and the key infrastructure of the service remains secure.

The current reserves of MicroStrategy amount to 650,000 BTC. Their market value is estimated at approximately $55.2 billion. A rare situation has arisen where the stock market has valued the business lower than the underlying asset on its balance sheet.

However, it is important to consider the debt load. The company's liabilities amount to $8.2 billion. If this amount is deducted and cash reserves of $1.4 billion are added, the net value of the bitcoin position (NAV) will be approximately $48.4 billion.

The beginning of December turned out to be a serious test for MicroStrategy. The company's market valuation briefly dipped below the net worth of the cryptocurrency assets it holds. The situation revived concerns among market participants regarding the use of leverage and the overall financial stability of the issuer.

Forecast for December: Historically, December has been an ambiguous month for Bitcoin. The average return is positive, but the median is negative (-3.2%). Statistics show that if November closes in the red (as it did this year), then December often follows suit. Many expect the price to fluctuate in the range of $80,000 – $90,000 until clear signals emerge from the Fed. For a trend change, bulls need to secure the price above the resistance level around $97,100.

A new, global narrative is needed.
Previous bull cycles were launched by specific ideas: 'Bitcoin is digital gold' (2020-2021) or 'DeFi and NFT are the new financial system' (2021). Now the old narrative is insufficient, and the new one is nonexistent. The next big story that will attract trillions has yet to be conceived or is in its infancy. It will take years for it to mature.

The reality is as follows:
Now the survival phase begins. Those who survive will be those who have enough patience and cold calculation. The coming years will likely be a period of sideways movement, lethargy, and apathy in the market — a classic "crypto winter", where true value will be created in silence, without hype and easy money.

📉 Where did 1.2 trillion dollars go?

The money that left the market didn't disappear; it simply changed hands. The sell-off included several key mechanisms:

· Flight of capital to safe assets: In times of market uncertainty and high volatility, investors tend to shift their capital from high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, to more stable traditional assets like bonds or even cash. This is a classic move towards "risk aversion".
· Outflow from ETFs: The very products that made buying Bitcoin easier also made selling it easier. In November 2025 alone, investors withdrew 3.5 billion dollars from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The largest of these, the BlackRock fund, faced an outflow of 2.2 billion dollars. This created mechanical selling pressure, as funds had to sell Bitcoin to return cash to investors.
· Reduction of leverage: Many traders use borrowed funds for trading. When the market started to decline, it triggered a cascade of automatic liquidations, as these leveraged positions were forcibly closed.

Here are the key factors that confirm the strengthening of the bearish trend:

· Massive selling from long-term holders → Since July 2025, large investors have begun to realize profits at unprecedented rates. According to analysts' estimates, between 362,000 and 2.1 million BTC have been sold, creating monthly selling pressure of about $34 billion. This influx of coins to exchanges outweighs the weakened demand from ETFs and corporations.
· Record short positions → Some large traders (whales) are actively taking advantage of this trend. For example, one market participant on the Hyperliquid platform has maintained a profitable short position of 1232 BTC (about $113 million) for over six months, with unrealized profits exceeding $24 million. This demonstrates the long-term confidence of part of the market in the continuation of the downward trend.
· Decrease in speculative frenzy → Data from derivatives markets show that funding rates for perpetual futures have decreased by 62% since August, indicating a reduction in leverage usage and a cooling of traders' speculative appetite.

The CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, predicted back in 2024 that in 2025 the cryptocurrency market would enter a bearish cycle, and the price of BTC could drop to $58,000

💡 What to pay attention to in the near future

In such an environment, it is especially important to monitor key levels and indicators.

· Critical support level: If the price of Bitcoin fails to hold in the current range, the next important milestone could be the area around $85,000. Historically, such levels serve as strong support, and a breach of them can provoke a new wave of selling.
· Monitoring indicators: Continue to track reports on ETF flows and data on open interest and funding rates on major exchanges. Sharp changes in these indicators often precede significant price movements.

💸 Fundamental Reasons for Pressure

The price is influenced not only by technical factors but also by fundamental macroeconomic factors.

A steady outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs means that there are fewer buyers in the market. This creates a constant mechanical pressure that is hard to see on the chart, but which forces market makers and exchanges to actively work to maintain liquidity.
· Macroeconomic uncertainty: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that the prospects for global economic growth remain unfavorable, and risks are tilted toward deterioration. In such conditions, investors tend to move away from risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.

💀 Who is at risk?

First of all, medium and small exchanges that do not have giant reserves and that have actively engaged in risky activities (lending without sufficient collateral, high leverage rates).

Conclusion: Your assumption is correct. The fact that altcoins continue to fall while BTC struggles to hold on may be an indirect sign that exchanges are already actively selling off altcoins to maintain liquidity. When this source runs out, we may see "wildness" live.

The only protection in such a situation is to keep your main assets not on the exchange, but in your own wallet, where you control the private keys. What you do not hold on the exchange, it will not be able to use for its operations and cannot block.

💥 What does "wild with outages" mean?

This is not a conspiracy theory. This is the standard set of actions taken by an insolvent financial platform:

· "Technical issues": The most common excuse. Suddenly, servers "go down", APIs get disabled, trading freezes. Especially often — at moments of sharp price movements when the exchange incurs real losses. This is necessary to stop the avalanche of orders.
· Suspension of withdrawals: First, for "technical reasons", fiat withdrawals (dollars, euros) are disabled, then stablecoins, and finally — major crypto assets (BTC, ETH). This is a direct sign that there are not enough coins in the exchange's hot wallets.
· "Hacking": The last resort when the exchange tries to blame its losses on mythical hackers. A classic of the genre.

🔗 Risk Chain: from Altcoins to Exchange Shutdown

1. Liquidity Source #1: Selling Altcoins.
· Exchanges (especially those that actively issue loans and work with futures) hold a huge amount of altcoins on their balances.
· When they need dollars or bitcoins to maintain liquidity (so you can sell BTC at the stated price at any moment), they first sell what is easiest to sell. First stablecoins, then top altcoins (ETH, SOL), and then everything else.
· This creates immense pressure on altcoins, explaining why they fall faster and harder, even when BTC holds.
2. Liquidity Source #2: The Exchange's Own Reserves.
· Exchanges have treasuries — their own stocks of BTC, ETH, and cash. They use them as a "safety cushion" to dampen spikes in volatility and fulfill your orders.
· In a prolonged capital outflow and falling market, this "cushion" is depleted.
3. Moment of Truth: When Money and Altcoins Run Out.
· There comes a moment when selling altcoins makes no sense — their price has collapsed, and they do not provide sufficient liquidity. The exchange's own bitcoin reserves are also running low.

3. 🎄 Christmas Sales (Seasonal Factor)

At the end of the year, two traditional phenomena come into play:

· Tax-Loss Harvesting: Investors sell assets at a loss to reduce taxes. This year there are many reasons for this — many bought at high prices.
· Profit Taking and Going to Cash: Major players and funds close positions to "clean" their balance sheets by the end of the year and go on vacation.

Result: The perfect storm for a decline

In short and without metaphors:

The market is currently being attacked from three sides:

1. By the cycle, it should be falling anyway.
2. ETFs are constantly adding fuel to the fire by selling Bitcoin.
3. The end of the year forces everyone to sell even more actively.

That is why altcoins are in a complete mess, and any hint of Bitcoin's growth is quickly extinguished. All these factors will be in effect at least until mid-January.

I hope the picture is now quite clear. This is not panic, it is simply a phase of the cycle, intensified by unique circumstances.

2. 🚫 ETF Pressure (Pump, Sucking Out Money)

As we have already established, the ETF, instead of being a "pump" that injects new money, has become a "pump" that sucks it out.

· Investors are withdrawing dollars from the ETF.
· To return these dollars, the ETF is forced to sell bitcoin.
· This creates a constant, invisible pressure on the chart, like an underwater current.

Right now, three powerful forces are converging in the market, pushing down on it simultaneously.

Imagine a car that is already going uphill (bear market), a strong headwind is blowing against it (outflow from ETFs), and ahead — icy conditions (seasonal sales).

1. 🔄 Cyclicality (Bear phase)

The market always moves in cycles: growth (bull market) -> peak -> decline (bear market) -> bottom.
What is happening now: We have passed the peak. The market is in a decline phase. In this phase, buyers are weaker than sellers, and every small recovery (like the recent bounce) often turns out to be a "dead cat bounce" — a false signal before a new drop.