CyberScavenger

Bear market, start hoarding coins

#HODL

I'm too aggressive, I lost 58888, just a little bit away from making it~

BTC dropped to a low of 7 this morning, which is ridiculous. Has the bear market finally won?

Specially converted to USDC for contracts, even ordinary level users can enjoy the USDC fee waiver benefit (only for limit orders/Maker). For high-volume and frequent traders, it's very attractive, equivalent to Binance giving themselves a "rebate" 😎

However, my BTC contract has been closed. In two windows, the contract was closed simultaneously, and the same quantity was purchased in the spot market, which means the contract was converted to spot. Initially, the plan was also to hold long-term, and I opened the contract to save on fees, but later found that although the opening/closing fees were saved, for long-term holding, the funding costs might be higher than the fees (because it is not frequent trading, the fees are only incurred once when opening).

There is still too much to learn～

#FEE #USDC

Continuing from the last post:
After exchanging SOL for BTC, the market gradually rebounded in the following hours.
I promptly sold BTC, realizing a profit of 170U.

A few hours after selling, it began to drop again. I can't say my judgment was very precise, but at least I was able to complete this wave while still in profit, which is something.

Keep working hard, develop your market sense, I don't expect to always hit the jackpot, but I hope to avoid losses every time!

#交易 #市场情绪 #波段 #BTC

The day before yesterday, there was a big drop, and a total of three orders received 174.933 SOL. However, due to the overall poor market sentiment, I decided to switch to BTC after some consideration.

1. Based on the transaction times of the three SOL orders, find the corresponding BTC prices at those times;
2. According to the transaction amounts of the three SOL orders, calculate the amount of BTC that can be purchased based on the found BTC prices;
3. Then, based on the calculated quantity, back-calculate the corresponding SOL/BTC exchange rate.
4. Place an order and wait for execution.

Through this operation, SOL was exchanged for BTC.

Today, it seems that this switch may not have much significance, but if the market really further oscillates downward, then the decline of SOL will definitely be greater than that of BTC, so adjusting the position is relatively safer.

#交易 #市场震荡 #BTC

Waking up, the entire market has plummeted horribly.

I placed three buy orders for SOL, the lowest at a price of 119.6, but it dropped to 117+, and my orders weren't ruthless enough.

The expectation of a government shutdown in the U.S. has caused panic across the entire market. 😫

This wave is going to start from holding positions again.

#SOL #交易 #停摆 #瀑布

In the past few days, there has been no real trading activity, and most of the time has been spent observing market trends. Currently holding USDC BTC SOL ETH.

The market sentiment is polarized:
1. One voice suggests that now is a festive moment for the capital market, with U.S. Treasury yields, U.S. stocks, and gold and silver all rising, as if it were an unprecedented event.
2. Another voice suggests that we are at the last moment of capital collapse, where all assets may suddenly plummet at a critical point, leaving chaos in its wake.

Let's analyze the specifics and see which viewpoint you support more:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has always been regarded as the pricing cat of the global capital market, directly reflecting monetary policy expectations and actual interest rates, serving as the "gravity" of all assets.
U.S. stocks are high-risk, high-return assets that directly reflect a company's profitability and risk appetite, leading economic growth.
Gold/silver are safe-haven and anti-inflation assets, directly reflecting actual interest rates and U.S. dollar credit, serving as the "counterparty" of currency.

A surge in U.S. Treasury yields (and a drop in Treasury face value) means that corporate financing costs rise, and investors demand higher returns. Therefore, when U.S. Treasury yields rise sharply, U.S. stocks typically face enormous downward pressure, as investors might think, "Since I can earn 4-5% just by lying down (buying U.S. Treasuries), why should I take the risk to trade stocks/cryptos?"

A stable or moderately rising U.S. Treasury yield means that capital is more willing to purchase and hold high-risk assets for higher investment returns.

If we consider the above two scenarios as the market's game, then a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index, usually indicates an economic recession, which is what we least want to see.

Gold/silver, as safe-haven assets, are usually negatively correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, meaning that when U.S. Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading to a drop in gold prices. Conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable or fall, and inflation rises, gold prices will rise.

Now, let's make a hypothesis: if humans discovered massive gold reserves on Mars and could mine them efficiently, would gold crash? If gold crashes, could BTC replace gold as the new safe-haven asset?

Imagine an extreme scenario where the global internet goes down (but power remains), and the centralized credit system collapses, with humanity relying on radio waves and satellites to synchronize BTC consensus...

#交易 #金融逻辑

Practical Review:
A few days ago, due to a small 'black swan' event, I cut 470.6 SOL, at a cost of 137.78, resulting in an actual loss of 3030 dollars when I sold. Many people might laugh: Didn't you say that 3x leverage is very stable? Didn't you say the liquidation price is 36? Why did you chicken out?

In fact, the reason for selling is not due to fear of loss, but because I realized the backlash of 'discipline' against me.

Unexpected heavy positions are the root of all evil: the premise of a six-level hanging order strategy is based on 'stable' fluctuations, and it is clear that such a strategy will lead to severe liquidity shortages when encountering a black swan.

The sharp drop that morning wiped out all six levels, and the price further dipped to around 130 USDT/SOL, but at that moment, I had no defensive hanging orders left. The remaining 40% of my reserve funds meant that my liquidation price was still far off, and theoretically, the possibility of being liquidated was low.

However, at this point, I no longer dared to use the reserve funds to add positions to lower the cost price, because once I added positions, if the price continued to fall (in fact, it did fall for another 2 days), my liquidation price would keep rising, and the risk would become greater. So, while it seems I have 40% of reserve funds, I cannot effectively utilize it, finding myself in a position of holding on.

Admitting mistakes, re-strategizing, selling is not shameful; what's shameful is knowing that the strategy has already deformed and still stubbornly holding on for a bit of pride.

Next, I adjusted my strategy, preparing to focus on BTC, and changed the addition strategy to an eight-level strategy, hoping to further reduce risk and gain a price advantage in the event of encountering a black swan.

I still do not look at any indicators, but I have now learned: if the first step is wrong (unexpected heavy positions), the best way is not to remedy it, but to start over.

#交易复盘 #割肉后的清醒

HOLY.....
I didn't realize this until now, how much it has shrunk in a year.

I originally thought about switching to the large vehicle BTC, but once again, I was educated by the market; in fact, this is not a market issue.
It's a matter of my own mindset, and I still need to improve.
This small trial has shown that my prediction of market trends is still insufficient.
Moreover, during this recent dramatic drop due to news, I discovered the fatal flaw of the minimalist opening strategy---in a continuously declining market, there is a lack of effective rebound opportunities, and even a simple chance to break even is not available.
Therefore, the strategy needs to be optimized; the minimalist strategy based on value itself is not wrong, but it is wrong to arbitrarily limit the opening and closing times to an extremely narrow range, just like all my previous profitable trades, which had a return rate of 1% to 1.5%, and the profits accumulated over half a month were all given back during yesterday's crash, hurting the principal.
Continue learning, continue researching

#交易

I just closed my position today

Closed the position, closed the position.
Although I have always held a sense of awe towards the market and have provided sufficient margin (liquidation price 36), I still decided to acknowledge my mistakes to the market.
Continue to exercise my insight, market awareness, information discrimination, and the impact of real-world geopolitical factors on capital markets.
The next step is to switch to BTC.

#交易

I also flattened it

Today, the SOL orders continue to be held.
The market needs a week to digest the impact of the news, waiting for the market to stabilize.
The fundamentals of crypto assets themselves are not a problem; it's more about the price's reaction to market news.
The cornerstone of value still exists, prices fluctuate around value, but will eventually return to near the value.

#交易

The weekend market is just boring. Currently, two out of six orders have been completed, and logically, trading should be reset. However, due to the weekend, I will continue to hold my position and see how it goes tomorrow.

#交易

The Farthest Distance in Trading: From 'Knowing' to 'Doing' 🧘‍♂️

Yesterday, this order triggered my second limit order when the price dipped to 140.6 at $SOL , and seeing the trend about to rebound, I felt a bit restless and wanted to manually increase my position. Since all limit orders had already been placed according to the 6-tier strategy, manually increasing my position at this moment would be equivalent to making an extra trade, which would use the reserve funds allocated for risk prevention. After some hesitation, I ultimately decided against the operation of increasing my position.

If I had increased my position at that time, my profits would have been greater than they are now, but this kind of 'small sweetener' continuously erodes discipline. Continuing like this will develop bad habits, and when a black swan event occurs, it will lead to panic and distorted operations.

Therefore, discipline must be adhered to!
​
​1️⃣ Pre-testing, post-execution
Every strategy undergoes repeated refinement of data and logic before being pushed into actual combat. Since the probabilities have already been calculated before entering the market, once in, one should remain silent and let mathematics do the work. Strategies are not meant for discussion; they are for execution.

​2️⃣ Start with small trades to accumulate a sense of 'winning probability'
Don't always think about making a big trade to change everything. Great traders are excellent 'collectors'—collecting small profits, collecting certain probabilities. Only when you can calmly handle every small trade can you possess the psychological quality to manage large funds.

​3️⃣ Reject 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO)
Missed a big price surge? That's okay. The essence of strategy is **'filtering'**, which inevitably filters out some extreme profits while filtering out risks. I never regret those surges that are not within my strategy because money that doesn't belong to me, even if earned, will eventually be lost again based on my skills in the next round.

​4️⃣ Discipline is a trader's armor
In a volatile market, emotions are the biggest enemy. Only discipline can keep you calm like a machine when facing unexpected trades or deep pullbacks, allowing you to place orders, increase positions, and take profits.
​
Trading is not about proving how smart you are, but about proving how disciplined you are. Stick to your strategy, and leave the rest to time.

​#交易心理 #投资纪律 #CryptoTrading

The Ultimate Simplification of Trading: Why I Abandoned All Technical Indicators?

After being tormented by RSI, MACD, and various complex candlestick patterns for a long time, I decided to clear all indicators and return to the fundamental logic of price action. I will share a trading system I created, based on "mean reversion" and "volatility balancing":

1️⃣ Finding "Physical Anchor Points"
No longer predicting the future, only respecting the past. Using the highest point within 24 hours as the market strength's "physical anchor point." By setting a fixed percentage of retracement to determine the first position, avoiding emotional random fluctuations.

2️⃣ Dynamic Evolution: 4h Window Correction
The market is alive, and the strategy cannot be dead. Introducing a "dynamic anchor point" mechanism, when the market's center of gravity shifts downward, the entry benchmark will automatically lower with recent local highs, preventing the "carving the boat to seek the point" in a declining trend.

3️⃣ Beta Linkage Verification
Do not look at the target in isolation. Using the overall market (BTC) as a safety valve, verifying the effectiveness of individual coin declines through correlation coefficients, filtering out meaningless noise.

4️⃣ Asymmetric Averaging Art (Six/Eight Levels Method)
Acknowledging that humans cannot accurately predict the bottom. By using a geometric series for averaging logic, continuously adjusting the cost line during the decline. Essentially, this is exchanging space for time; as long as the market shows a 1% - 2% volatility reversion, one can exit with full profit.

5️⃣ Trading Philosophy: Forget Prediction, Manage Probability
Technical indicators are retrospective, while capital management and retracement logic are a priori. The core of this strategy is no longer about "guessing up or down," but about "handling volatility." As long as the market is still fluctuating, this system is an ever-running money printing machine.

#Crypto #TradingStrategy #SOL #交易心得

Amazing