- 8 лет на рынке
- $30k - $500k торговлей в 2024
- Ончейн, Santiment, Glassnode, Макро
- Управляю ИК от 100k
Анализ: @driptrade3 и @dripflip3
@Aleksandr_NFA
Altseason in the classical sense is a product of a certain era, not a recurring market law. by Confucius. Chapter 1 THE MARKET HAS EXHAUSTED THE INFLOW OF NEW AUDIENCE 🟧 Demographic Data • World Population: ~8.2 billion people (2025, World Bank) • Cryptocurrency Owners: 560–659 million people (~7–8% of the population)
SBF wrote "gm" from prison → FTT +60% in a day. Binance burned 5 billion LUNC on New Year's → +20%. Kwon has been arrested → LUNA -23%.
Do you see the pattern? News = movement. Quick money can be made. Then a pullback.
But here's the truth: 70% of FTT with liquidators — they will dump when they want LUNC has 5.5 trillion tokens — will be burning for another 10 years Utility of both: zero
If you trade news — this is your sandbox. If you are looking for "hold for years" — run away from here. Dead cats bounce. But they don't come back to life.
Arthur Hayes invested in $RIVER. The token gained +600% in a week.
Maelstrom Fund — the family office of BitMEX's founder — announced an investment in River.
The token broke its all-time high of $20. Trading volume in the last 24 hours reached $3.5 billion. On Binance Perps, it surpassed DOGE and PEPE in volume.
What is River? A chain-abstraction stablecoin system. You can collateralize on one chain and mint a stablecoin on another. No bridges or wrappers required.
$300M+ TVL. 30+ integrations. Own stablecoin satUSD with over $100M in circulation.
Hayes wrote: "We're entering 2026 with nearly maximum risk." And immediately showed where.
HODL is dead. Alt season will happen. But not now.
Many altcoins are cheap. Possibly close to a local bottom. The temptation to buy is understandable. But there is a risk that everyone ignores: the first half of the year might be painful. If $BTC goes down — alts can easily show -50-70% from the current levels. The correlation hasn't gone anywhere. Alt season will happen. The BTC.D dominance chart has been saying this for a long time. But with a higher probability — closer to the end of the year. This fits into the timeline.
The USA has taken the president. Here’s who will receive billions for reconstruction.
Venezuela — 303 billion barrels of oil. More than Saudi Arabia. Production has fallen by 80%. Only one drilling rig remains out of 80+. Everything has rotted.
Trump has already announced: American companies will spend billions on reconstruction.
Iraq 2003. Libya 2011. One pattern. The first to grow were not those who pump — the first to grow were those who build. Oil service.
Halliburton after Iraq: +250% in 3 years. They were already working in Venezuela before the sanctions. They will enter first.
What to watch: HAL — basic position, historically first on contracts SLB — global leader, more stable, dividends BKR — third player, diversification within the sector WFRD — aggressive bet, higher volatility, greater upside NOV — second tier, equipment manufacturer
Timing: 3-6 months. Contracts are signed before the first barrel. The window is open.
While everyone discusses geopolitics — smart money is calculating the profitability of drilling.