Faisal Qadeer 1

Today, Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit a new all-time high.

Here's why this matters for Bitcoin and crypto.

For years, global investors borrowed yen at near-zero rates and used that money to buy stocks, bonds, and crypto.

This “yen carry trade” was one of the biggest sources of extra liquidity in the world.

But now that Japanese yields are hitting record levels, that cheap funding source is disappearing.

The BOJ is also expected to hike rates at its December meeting, which would push yields even higher and force more traders to unwind the carry trade.

When that happens, investors sell global assets to repay yen loans and that selling hits risk assets like BTC and altcoins first.

We’ve seen this happen multiple times already:

• In March 2024, a BOJ hike lined up with Bitcoin forming a clear local top.
• In July 2024, another hike was followed by a 20% BTC drop in seven days.
• In January 2025, a further hike was followed by a multi-month downtrend in stocks and crypto.

Japan’s decisions consistently act like a global liquidity switch.

When BOJ tightens, liquidity falls fast and markets correct, no matter what U.S. policy is doing.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, however, is moving toward easing.

It has already cut rates twice, QT has ended, and another cut in December has almost 90% probability.

But in the short term, it’s not enough because the Fed has not restarted QE or large-scale money printing.

Japan’s tightening is still stronger than the Fed’s easing, so global liquidity stays under pressure for now.

Japan even announced a ¥150 billion stimulus, but rising yields show the market doesn’t believe the stimulus can last.

Yields keep climbing, and the bond market looks stressed, which supports the idea that Japan is exiting its old policy regime.

So what does all of this mean for Bitcoin and crypto in the coming weeks and months?

Short term, volatility stays high. BOJ tightening increases the chance of pullbacks, forced selling, and sudden corrections, just like the past three BOJ hikes.

But medium to long term, this creates a setup that becomes bullish once the pressure passes:

• The Fed will eventually need stronger easing
• Liquidity from the U.S. starts improving before Japan finishes tightening
• BTC usually bottoms during global liquidity stress, not after
• The crowd becomes fearful while long-term buyers accumulate
• Once BOJ stabilises and the Fed shifts fully toward support, BTC often leads the next expansion cycle

Japan may be creating short-term stress, but the U.S. is slowly moving toward a friendlier liquidity environment.

This mix usually creates the exact conditions where Bitcoin forms stronger long-term bases.

$BTC
$ETH

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