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4.30 Market Analysis BTC Let's recap. Yesterday's view was to go long, watching the 7.36-7.48 range. Last night, we saw a low spike down to 74868 followed by a quick rebound. The cyclical view remains: a pullback up【left side short】 or a drop below 7.36【right side short】 is unchanged; just refer back to the analysis from the past couple of days for clarity.~
Currently, on an intraday basis, we have a small double bottom at the hourly level, with support at 7.54. The neck line at 7.63 is the key level for whether we can push higher. After that, resistance sits at 7.73/7.83, etc. Right now, I've reduced my long positions to cover fees and pushed for a break-even. If we go lower, keep an eye on the 7.36-7.48 zone for any signs of a bounce to take a long position. Strict stop-loss if we break down.
From a higher timeframe perspective, the market seems to be consolidating. Personally, I still lean towards a push up above 7.93 before breaking down below 7.36. Be clear about your trading timeframe, manage your stop-loss, and there's nothing that can't be traded.
4.29 Market Analysis 【Trend Remains, Where to Long or Short】 BTC Yesterday, after breaking below 7.72 and hitting my short t1, I just let it be; I already took profits on my tail position~ Back to the chart, the 7.72 area is still a battleground for short-term longs and shorts. I won't go into the periodic positions, but the fact that I closed all my longs at 7.87 on the 22nd indicates I'm not optimistic about a trend reversal here on the daily. We're still in a bear market~ I've mentioned the 7.92/8.06 levels many times; right now, just keep an eye on 7.92 and avoid setting left-side limit orders. Just set a price alert, and entering on a spike back down would be a better play. 8.06 is still worth a left-side limit order~
Recently, many folks have been asking if they can go long. My take is if you want to long, watch the 4hr level around 7.36-7.48, and observe the specific volume-price action when we get there. For short-term trades, keep an eye on whether we can reclaim 7.75 today~ To reiterate, my periodic view is still to go up and short; the 4hr MACD has shown two divergences, and if we go up again, I lean towards liquidity hunting. So what if we don’t go up? I'll be watching the downside at 7.36; if we break below here, it would indicate a turning point in the market and confirm a one-sided short opportunity. But no one knows how long we’ll grind above this level; if we do go up, it represents a risk-reward position worth testing. Or do we really have to wait for the US stocks to break the neckline to trigger a major correction together?
4.29 Market Analysis 【Trend Remains, Where to Long or Short】 BTC Yesterday, after breaking below 7.72 and hitting my short t1, I just let it be; I already took profits on my tail position~ Back to the chart, the 7.72 area is still a battleground for short-term longs and shorts. I won't go into the periodic positions, but the fact that I closed all my longs at 7.87 on the 22nd indicates I'm not optimistic about a trend reversal here on the daily. We're still in a bear market~ I've mentioned the 7.92/8.06 levels many times; right now, just keep an eye on 7.92 and avoid setting left-side limit orders. Just set a price alert, and entering on a spike back down would be a better play. 8.06 is still worth a left-side limit order~
Recently, many folks have been asking if they can go long. My take is if you want to long, watch the 4hr level around 7.36-7.48, and observe the specific volume-price action when we get there. For short-term trades, keep an eye on whether we can reclaim 7.75 today~ To reiterate, my periodic view is still to go up and short; the 4hr MACD has shown two divergences, and if we go up again, I lean towards liquidity hunting. So what if we don’t go up? I'll be watching the downside at 7.36; if we break below here, it would indicate a turning point in the market and confirm a one-sided short opportunity. But no one knows how long we’ll grind above this level; if we do go up, it represents a risk-reward position worth testing. Or do we really have to wait for the US stocks to break the neckline to trigger a major correction together?
Yesterday's ETH short hit T1 at 2260~ BTC's strategy from yesterday, with a right-side entry below 7.72, has now reached T1 around 7.6. You can trim your position and set a stop-loss. Let's keep an eye on the next target at 7.48~
Streaming around 10 PM tonight~ Feel free to join the chat~
Just now, I brought everyone into a right-side ETH position during the live stream; we can set a stop-loss to at least break even~ Not sure if it will pull back here. However, if we break below around 2260, it's likely to trigger an accelerated move~ $ETH
HeyElwin
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[Replay] 🎙️ 4.27 Short Profit! Where to take profits?
4.27 Market Analysis 【Short Position Floating Profit - Take Profit or Trend?】 BTC Last Friday's outlook suggested 7.92/8.06 for a left-side entry. If you got in, you're looking at around 1500 points in profit now. Can we still hold the short position? In Chart 2, we can see that the lower bound of the channel has been tested multiple times at the 7.72 level. So with the short position entered at 7.92 reaching this point, I believe it's time for a【Partial Take Profit】. If it breaks below, we can scale back in, looking sequentially at 7.62/7.48/7.37. The objective reality is that we haven't broken the channel yet, so there's still an expectation for another bounce~ Even if we want to maintain the trend without reducing our position, we at least need to defend our cost here~
Join me for a live session tonight around 10 PM, feel free to chat!~ $BTC
Woke up and BTC is still in this 1000-point consolidation zone, not much to see here~ It's the weekend, and if there's no action, let's just chill. Let the candlesticks move a bit, break out of the range, and hit those key levels before we take a look~ $BTC
HeyElwin
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4.24 Market Analysis BTC Currently, we're seeing a slight horizontal consolidation between 7.73-7.83, a mere 1000 points. Not much reason to jump into trades at this level~ Continuing with this small channel perspective, the lower support is at 7.6 (if you're looking to long, keep an eye on this retracement level). The upper limit is around 8.02. The key level mentioned yesterday at 7.48 remains the pivot point for this upward movement; as long as it holds, we can expect continued consolidation within the channel and anticipate a potential breakout. Currently, the contract funding rate remains significantly negative. In my opinion, we might see another push up. If we hit the levels of 7.92/8.06, it’s still a good opportunity to position some short trades on the left side.
ETH Recently, ETH has been lagging behind BTC. It's currently broken below the trend line. Intraday resistance is at 2340, followed by 2383. Watch the important level at 2260 below; if it breaks, that's a right-side entry to chase shorts.~
4.24 Market Analysis BTC Currently, we're seeing a slight horizontal consolidation between 7.73-7.83, a mere 1000 points. Not much reason to jump into trades at this level~ Continuing with this small channel perspective, the lower support is at 7.6 (if you're looking to long, keep an eye on this retracement level). The upper limit is around 8.02. The key level mentioned yesterday at 7.48 remains the pivot point for this upward movement; as long as it holds, we can expect continued consolidation within the channel and anticipate a potential breakout. Currently, the contract funding rate remains significantly negative. In my opinion, we might see another push up. If we hit the levels of 7.92/8.06, it’s still a good opportunity to position some short trades on the left side.
ETH Recently, ETH has been lagging behind BTC. It's currently broken below the trend line. Intraday resistance is at 2340, followed by 2383. Watch the important level at 2260 below; if it breaks, that's a right-side entry to chase shorts.~
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Starting from the 15th, both the community and public strategies have pointed towards a potential breakout. Last night, we finally set a new recent high. Now,
let's break down the current chart: The key level during this surge is at 7.48~ If we break below this, it could trigger a larger drop.~ The intraday neckline is at 7.74, with support at 7.63/7.55 and resistance around last night's high of 7.98.
My personal take: For the past week or so, the strategy has been 【buying the dip. Waiting to short at highs】. Right now, it’s 【not much, waiting to short on both long and short】. After hitting 7.9 last night, we quickly retraced, but upon waking up, I noticed there wasn't significant volume following the price. So, if you had a short position at 7.9 last night, you could consider reducing your position temporarily. If we pull back up, you can add to your position again. Whether looking from a channel perspective, a major consolidation area, or daily resistance, the range of 7.9-8 is definitely worth speculating on shorts~
I'll be live around 10 PM tonight, feel free to join the stream and chat~
Today's perspective is good enough for this~ My personal script is: first look for a pullback, then go up to seize above 7.6/7.8, and then start a one-sided market. Purely my personal thoughts 😀
Perfect T2! 4000 points, time to cash out completely~ $BTC
HeyElwin
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Bullish
Floating profit of over 3000 points!! Long position take profit!! Congrats to all the homies who followed the public strategy or the live session yesterday~ We automatically hit T1 take profit upon waking up. Now, let’s push the remaining position's stop loss up to 7.7, and that's good to go. The next area to consider reducing our position is around 7.89. For the long-term short position, let’s keep patiently waiting for a top structure to form above, just check the reference article for specifics.
Today's analysis is done! $BTC #孙宇晨起诉World Liberty Financial {future}(BTCUSDT)
Floating profit of over 3000 points!! Long position take profit!! Congrats to all the homies who followed the public strategy or the live session yesterday~ We automatically hit T1 take profit upon waking up. Now, let’s push the remaining position's stop loss up to 7.7, and that's good to go. The next area to consider reducing our position is around 7.89. For the long-term short position, let’s keep patiently waiting for a top structure to form above, just check the reference article for specifics.
【BTC Major Level/Daily Trend & Turning Points, this article is sufficient!】 Figure 1 Daily The bullish structure has not weakened yet. Small support at 7.38. If it breaks here, the market is weak. The bullish-bearish turning point in the daily structure is around 7.04. Only if it breaks here, it will start a bearish trend.
Viewpoint: Currently, it's a bear market! Bear market! Bear market! Combined with the daily MACD and contract data. Although there is still an expectation of an upward surge, to 7.87 or even above 80,000. However, when reaching these levels, I will slowly position myself for short orders on the left side. Hard stop loss at 8.12. I estimate it will oscillate upwards for a few more days. Those who do not want to take a left-side position can patiently wait for a top structure, which is also fine.
Figure 2 Intraday/Short-term First, look at the channel. Lower edge around 7.4. Upper edge at 7.87, with short-term resistance at 7.62/7.7 above. Small support at 7.48 below. Last night I made a breakout order at 7.62, but woke up to a narrow stop loss. However, if it breaks out again with volume, I will still enter on the right side. For more detailed intraday reference positions, just look back at the articles from the past few days. It’s mainly about the operation of support and resistance switching at a smaller level. I won’t elaborate further here~ Right now, even a trend line (at the arrow point), those holding long positions can gradually take it up. Approach the resistance and reduce positions in batches.
I went out to play for a few days. The updates in the past few days have been quite fragmented, and today I return to update the daily level analysis & viewpoint. Understanding the trend is very important! Tonight, barring any surprises, I will go live around 10:30. Welcome to the live room for a chat!~
The strategy mentioned today and the recent live broadcast both referred to the 7.48 pullback position. Those who got on board are currently close to a profit of 1000 points. First, push for a break-even + extract the fees. Then, prepare for a t1 take profit near 7.7~ $BTC
HeyElwin
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Bullish
【BTC Major Level/Daily Trend & Turning Points, this article is sufficient!】 Figure 1 Daily The bullish structure has not weakened yet. Small support at 7.38. If it breaks here, the market is weak. The bullish-bearish turning point in the daily structure is around 7.04. Only if it breaks here, it will start a bearish trend.
Viewpoint: Currently, it's a bear market! Bear market! Bear market! Combined with the daily MACD and contract data. Although there is still an expectation of an upward surge, to 7.87 or even above 80,000. However, when reaching these levels, I will slowly position myself for short orders on the left side. Hard stop loss at 8.12. I estimate it will oscillate upwards for a few more days. Those who do not want to take a left-side position can patiently wait for a top structure, which is also fine.
Figure 2 Intraday/Short-term First, look at the channel. Lower edge around 7.4. Upper edge at 7.87, with short-term resistance at 7.62/7.7 above. Small support at 7.48 below. Last night I made a breakout order at 7.62, but woke up to a narrow stop loss. However, if it breaks out again with volume, I will still enter on the right side. For more detailed intraday reference positions, just look back at the articles from the past few days. It’s mainly about the operation of support and resistance switching at a smaller level. I won’t elaborate further here~ Right now, even a trend line (at the arrow point), those holding long positions can gradually take it up. Approach the resistance and reduce positions in batches.
I went out to play for a few days. The updates in the past few days have been quite fragmented, and today I return to update the daily level analysis & viewpoint. Understanding the trend is very important! Tonight, barring any surprises, I will go live around 10:30. Welcome to the live room for a chat!~