Erin0018

It's now December 30, 2024, and I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year in advance!

For nearly half the year, I've been telling everyone to stack up BTC below 60k, and now it's at 104k.

Looking back, anything below 60k is a solid bottom. I've been reiterating not to be afraid, to boldly load up, because I predict that the top in 2025 will likely be between 110k and 120k.

2024-2025 is the main window for the bull market, and we are at a pivotal point. If 2024 is the planting season, then 2025 is the harvest season.

This year, we managed to catch the bottom together, and I've been instilling confidence in everyone to hold onto their spot. For next year, our strategy will be to take profits at the top.

Right now, with BTC at 100k, it's already a bit high. BTC should still push higher a few more times, peaking around 120k. So our strategy for 2025 will be: take profits, take profits, and take more profits.

Every cycle has those blinded by greed. Remember, only when you lock in those profits and pocket the USDT is it real; otherwise, it's just play money.

It's June 30, 2024.

Based on my four years in the game, that 74k isn't the top; it's just a consolidation phase.

BTC is gonna accumulate here, and prices below 60k are looking pretty sexy. I'm gonna keep stacking up here.

I predict BTC could break 74k by the end of the year, with a conservative push toward 100k. The top of this cycle might be around 110k-120k, and I'll be taking profits and exiting there, marking the end of this bull run.

Why is Bitcoin always dropping? Is the crypto space done for?

When will people realize that the rise and fall of finance has nothing to do with these bearish retail traders? Retail traders have no consensus, their impact is minimal!

No matter how much you shout bearish, the casino will find a way to keep running; whether you're there or not, the world keeps spinning. Where there are plenty of fish, fishermen will go to catch them; where there's plenty of cash and strong liquidity, that's where we'll be trading.

This is the most fundamental logic of finance, and most people don't even grasp this basic point. If you manage to make money, it's a miracle.
$BTC

If you want to monetize your insights, you need to know a few unspoken rules.

1. You must recognize that the world operates like a game; any chance of getting rich quick is essentially the result of capital pooling, not retail investors.

Retail investors lack any consensus! Human nature dictates that even brothers will tear each other apart in the face of absolute profit, let alone retail individuals who don’t share any blood ties.

What you see in the internet, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and even AI right now, is fundamentally the result of capital accumulation. Capital injects money into these sectors, inflates their market cap, and then distributes and harvests gains, with the liquidity overflowing to the retail crowd. Even a small profit can make retail investors celebrate for a while.

2. With a thorough respect and reverence for capital, seek out the patterns of liquidity. Strive to discover it a step ahead; believe that liquidity exists here. Everything follows a normal distribution, so you don’t need to be the best; you just need to be a bit more diligent than others. If you can get ahead of the curve, you can seize more assets.

3. Learn to respect those who have gotten rich quickly. You only see others getting rich but fail to understand the reasons behind their wealth. This is the terrifying aspect of capital's operating rules; anyone who achieves results in any field and retains that wealth deserves to be seen as monetizing their insights, aligning their knowledge with wealth.

Whether these individuals are engaging in unethical practices (not advocating for gray markets!!!), it might be hard to accept their actions, but you must acknowledge that they exploit the less informed with their superior knowledge. This encompasses all areas, which is why you find absurd scams still catching people out every year; because everything follows a normal distribution, there will always be fools in the world.

This article reflects personal thoughts and should not be taken as investment advice. $BTC #Humanity遭攻击宣布百万USDT悬赏

I say this is the playbook for BTC this year, no objections, right?

If we don't see this trend by the end of the year, every fan sends 100u, drop a follow, and let's do a giveaway at year-end.

In the crypto space, it's all about BTC and the altcoins.

BTC has top-tier whales with solid consensus, and the average holding time is measured in years.

ETH is a public chain, and during the bull run from 20-22, the capital behind ETH deployed a series of DeFi ecosystem tokens on the ETH chain, boosting ETH's market cap and facilitating a flywheel distribution. The 20-22 and 23-25 cycles showed a clear double top on the candlesticks, highlighting a classic double-cycle distribution pattern that we've seen frequently with altcoins. In the upcoming 27-29 cycle, it will definitely take a hit.

Can you still make money in the crypto space?

Let’s cut to the chase: 99% of newbies can't make a dime in crypto.

To profit in this game, you’ve got to go through a full bull and bear cycle.

If you haven’t experienced the ups and downs, you’re not going to be sensitive to market liquidity at all. These newbies need to go through a cycle to gain some hard-earned wisdom, which allows them to develop their own strategies to capitalize on the next bull run, taking assets from the new guys. It’s a vicious cycle: the veterans exploit the newbies, and the newbies can’t compete with the veterans. That’s just how the crypto game works.

The main plays in crypto are BTC and altcoins.

BTC may be stable, but the gains are slow and drawn out, which makes it unappealing to newcomers.

This brings us to a new concept: altcoins. Besides BTC, everything else is considered an altcoin. The ones we know, like ETH, SOL, and BNB, are among the biggest altcoins. Why dive into altcoins? It’s all about the high leverage; whenever liquidity spills over, you’ll find plenty of examples of single coins hitting A7 and A8.

So why can’t newbies handle altcoins well?

The core issue is their insensitivity to liquidity. Crypto liquidity flows from BTC and is phase-specific; it usually rotates among sectors. Each sector typically lasts only a couple of months. Newbies often can't catch the rhythm and are prone to FOMO, usually buying in and then getting stuck at the top.

When I entered the space in 2020, I experienced 312, DeFi summer, new chains, the zoo, 519, NFTs, and sneakers. I played through every project from 2020 to 2022, and ended up with nothing, even losing my initial capital.

After gaining some experience in the 2023-2025 cycle, I developed my own strategies. Thanks to the meme coins' grassroots appeal, I did see some results: I netted 300k from Trump, and also made a few grand on Pnut, Max, and Troll.

If there’s enough interest, I’ll write about my experiences and insights from this 2023-2025 cycle in the coming days. It’ll serve as a recap of the past few years and, most importantly, a guide on how to approach spot trading and on-chain strategies for the next round.

$BTC

The consensus expectation of the crowd won't be met, and the price will move towards the path of least resistance.
$BTC

As a seasoned trader who's been in the game for six years, I predicted back in 2024 that the top for BTC in 2025 would be 120k (the post is still up on my profile).

Daring to make another prediction for the upcoming years' lows and highs.

By December 2026, buy BTC below 40k.

By June 2029, sell all BTC at 170k.

In just two and a half years, you could boost your assets by 400%.

It's February 1, 2026, and it's clear that BTC has flipped bearish.

Altcoins and on-chain liquidity are in pretty rough shape; that once-thriving scene from the past is not coming back in 2026.

Some folks might have a hard time accepting this harsh reality, but tough love is what we need. If you want to survive in this market, you gotta respect the market and ride the trend.

All we can do now is defend our capital, and we must defend our capital.

By the end of 2026, we’ll see the final bottom before the next BTC bull run kicks off. Right now, at the start of '26, you need to do everything you can to learn, backtest strategies, hit the gym, build your capital, and get ready for the next big opportunity!
$BTC

#21

CA:4vGHdzcNrDf8XVE8H19Rqea86RULz7xi89ew1sSJpump

Solana chain

Daily level accumulation, very standard second test, breakout, optimistic for higher, looking to see the upper position.

Has the bull market ended? When is it time to bottom in the bear market?
When is the cycle bottom?

Answer: The loss ratio of long-term holders is close to historical highs, that is, when this group is the most severely cut (the most uncomfortable), it is the cycle's major bottom.

Long-term holders are the smartest group in the market. This group collects chips during declines and distributes chips during rises. As long as the buying funds are sufficient, this group will not suffer significant losses.

Once the loss ratio of this group exceeds historical warning levels, do not doubt, it indicates that the buying funds are not keeping up, and the market has a problem.

Collecting chips -> Raising prices -> Distributing to buyers, the last link has a problem.

In any case, please lower expectations and focus on defense!

On December 30, a comprehensive macro analysis for this week is presented in two parts due to word limit.

Part One: "Macro Perspective"
Macro Perspective:
1. In the early part of this week, many regions were closed for the New Year's holiday; in the latter part, attention is on US PMI data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials—currently, the market lacks stimuli, so we are focused on the content of the speeches.
2. The Federal Reserve's spokesperson: is trying to assess the new government's impact on the economy and inflation. The monetary policy (interest rate cuts) for 2025 poses a relatively tight liquidity situation for the cryptocurrency sector—bearish, but the uncertainty during Trump's administration leads to a coexistence of opportunities and challenges.
3. In Goldman Sachs' 2025 outlook: AI is considered the main theme of the technology industry. The performance of tech stocks in 2024 is expected to be a bull market almost throughout the year, with a loose macro environment supporting tech stocks and AI concept stocks. Stocks like Marvell, TSMC, Nvidia, and Arista Networks have seen increases of over 75%—generative AI will continue to be the dominant theme in the technology sector. Among the 10 important themes listed by Goldman Sachs for 2025, AI themes occupy a significant portion; we should pay attention to the layout opportunities in the AI sector tokens.
4. The BTC spot ETF has recently shown an outflow state amid a lackluster performance, needing new stimulus to attract funds.

End of Part One, the second part will be updated shortly. Follow to avoid getting lost, sharing thoughts and operations every day~

#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？ #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测 #合约爆仓 #合约养家 #合约挑战 $DOGE $PEPE $PNUT

"Will 25 years be a crazy bull market?" (2)

Simply speaking, if too much money is printed, some of it will flow into the financial market, and the cryptocurrency market will also get a share. Imagine that when central banks and the Federal Reserve of various countries flood the market with money, print money crazily, major stock markets soar, and a new round of bull market cycle begins, then your Bitcoin will just lie there and not move. Is it possible? Halving and flooding the market will not be able to support it, which means the end of the Bitcoin bull market cycle, which means that a large number of people in the cryptocurrency market will lose confidence in the cryptocurrency market, and it will also be a major blow to those OTC funds that are still waiting and watching.

Take a step back and say that if the world floods the market with money, Bitcoin is halved, and the market makers do not pull the price, it is ok, no problem.

Then, if the price is pulled later, when will it be pulled? What reason will be used as the reason for pulling the price? What is the opportunity? At this time, some people may say: What reason is needed for pulling the price? Funds are the hard truth.

What I want to say is that, first of all, malicious market manipulation is a criminal act. Usually, you dealers cooperate with exchanges to maliciously pull up and smash, and insert pins and blow up contracts to achieve the purpose of controlling the market. Many people turn a blind eye to this and know it well. But in the face of Bitcoin halving + global flooding, you are doing these, maliciously controlling the market, which is equivalent to standing up and saying loudly: I just don’t want to pull, I will manipulate the market. I think no dealer institution would be so stupid.

There is not only one dealer institution in the market. The current currency circle is a big cake. Macro flooding + Bitcoin halving, this epic double benefit, other dealers don’t rush, this dealer rushes, this is the paradise of capital. As long as the Bitcoin bull and bear cycle is not broken, the life of leeks will have ideas, and no matter how hard and tired they are, they will make "contributions" to the industry.

Let the leeks think that Bitcoin halving + global flooding is a bull market, and uproot the leeks in one round (bull-bear cycle failure), so that the leeks lose confidence in this circle. If you are capital, which one would you choose? The pie (bull-bear) is real, but whether you can eat it or whether you will spit it out after eating it depends on the personal ability of the leeks. As I often say, you can make money in the bull market by buying with your eyes closed. When the bull market ends, the key is to keep the profit.
#本周微策略是否继续增持BTC？ #币安LaunchpoolBIO预测 #ATA涨势分析 #加密ETF申请热潮涌现 #币安Alpha公布第8批项目
$PNUT $PEPE $DOGE

Is 2025 a Wild Bull Market? (1)

It has become a consensus among most people that the cryptocurrency market will be bullish in 2024 and 2025, but some people wonder: If everyone thinks the next two years will be a bull market, will the bull market still come?

First, the conclusion: Yes.

There are no special tricks in trading; on a larger scale, people have been trading since birth, constantly weighing pros and cons. What I mentioned above may seem vague, but when it comes to financial trading, especially in the cryptocurrency market, it becomes even simpler. Seasons change, the moon waxes and wanes, the sun rises and sets; these are the laws of nature.

Market bull and bear transitions are similar; when you extend the timeline, these trends are quite graspable. A bull market doesn't emerge overnight, and a bear market doesn't end in a day. In trading, there's no need to chase absolute lows; absolute lows may only last for a few seconds. For example, during the last bull market, few people managed to catch the low of 3120 or 3800. In hindsight, buying between 4000-6000 would also be considered capturing a relatively low point during the last bear market, which is normal.

Now let's focus on: Will 2025 be a bull market?

The general consensus now is that 2025 will be a wild bull market, and I've also seen many skeptical voices, such as: If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, will the bull still come as everyone wishes? If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, won't they all have made money?

In response to this, I previously mentioned “Unity of Knowledge and Action”; knowing is one thing, but whether you can act on it is the most important. After all, ancient emperors had no personal matters, and today we have decentralized transparency. The halving of Bitcoin is visible to all, so knowing is not difficult, and that's one point.

Secondly, I have stated that the current Bitcoin still lacks the ability to lead the market, rising against the overall financial trading trend. Therefore, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. How do bull markets come about? By injecting liquidity. How do they end? Through interest rate hikes. The previously known cycles of bull and bear markets have all followed this pattern.

The previous section has concluded; follow me for updates on the next part!

In this era, wealth is no longer a reward for labor,
but rather a prize for cognition.

The marginal returns from labor are dwindling, and the value of labor depreciates as you age.

The biggest competition in this world is the competition of knowledge; this is the core key to victory.

Those who manage to flip the script aren't your average folks; they might come from ordinary backgrounds, look average, have average degrees, and possess average networks, but their understanding is anything but ordinary.

For the underdogs, the path to success requires not just a deep understanding of social rules but also profound insights into human nature, upgrading their grasp of the essence and laws of things, so they can expertly differentiate people, identify talent, leverage connections, and dominate.

The greatest tragedy for an individual is that by the time you comprehend the rules of society and the truth of human nature, you’re no longer young! If you only figure this out in your forties, you might find it hard to turn the tide!

This illustrates the limitations that cognition imposes on a person;
not understanding human nature can cost you a lifetime!

Even though many folks said there wouldn't be any rate cuts in the first half of the year, I'm sticking to my guns. Remember, the crypto space is just the tip of the iceberg for US assets; the economic tide won't shift because of crypto. The Earth won't stop spinning for any one individual—let's get our causality straight and not mix up the main points.

#杰克逊霍尔年会 #US CPI data has dropped for the 4th consecutive month.