jimwilldoit

$BTC The biggest issue right now isn’t that no one is buying.

It’s that the hot money has temporarily stopped chasing it.

Funds are moving to gold.

To AI stocks.

To IPOs.

Bitcoin has lost its momentum trading label.

Jim Ferraioli from Charles Schwab states that BTC's price action is currently struggling, not because institutional demand has completely vanished, but because it has temporarily lost its place as a Momentum Trade. Simply put, funds used to chase BTC because it was rising quickly, had high elasticity, and a strong narrative; but now the market’s attention has shifted towards gold, AI stocks, and IPOs.

This point is crucial. BTC doesn’t lack long-term buying interest; it’s just that short-term trading is no longer the main attraction for hot money. Gold has its safe-haven appeal and central bank buying, AI stocks have performance and narrative, IPOs have novelty and speculative funds, while BTC is currently being weighed down by ETF outflows, liquidations, weak structure, and fluctuating confidence.

So, BTC isn’t “unwanted” right now; it’s just “temporarily not sexy enough.” Institutions may still be around, but the momentum funds have left, leading to a naturally heavier market. What crypto fears the most isn’t a lack of stories; it’s that at the same time, there are other narratives in the market that are easier to tell, easier to pump, and easier to attract funds.

This also explains why BTC still has long-term logic but struggles with short-term rebounds.

The money hasn’t disappeared.

It’s just gone to other places for now.

For BTC to take off again, it must regain the market’s attention. $ETH $BNB #美伊冲突加密市场大规模清算

$BTC shorts have already been squeezed dry.

High-leverage longs are down to just $800 million.

Meanwhile, high-leverage shorts have piled up to $13 billion.

This ratio is way out of balance.

The market could flip and liquidate shorts at any moment.

Right now, the high-leverage position structure for BTC is extremely extreme. High-leverage Long Positions are currently only around $800 million, while High-leverage Short Positions have soared to $13 billion.

This is crucial. There are not many longs left that can be cleaned out below, but the fuel for shorts is piling up higher and higher. If the price continues to dip, the liquidation space for longs in the market is limited; however, if BTC pulls back just a bit, those $13 billion worth of short positions could turn into fuel for a Short Squeeze.

Of course, just because there are a lot of shorts doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent. A genuine squeeze needs spot buying to ignite the fire, and the price needs to reclaim key levels; otherwise, no matter how much the contracts get squeezed, it could just look good on paper. But from a position perspective, the risk of blindly chasing shorts has clearly increased.

Right now, BTC isn't without downward pressure.

But the shorts are already too stacked.

Once the market pulls back with a green candle,

that $13 billion above could be the next piece to be harvested.🔥$ETH $XRP #美伊冲突加密市场大规模清算

$ETH The long leverage has been completely wiped out.

High leverage long positions have basically been decimated.

This isn't just an ordinary pullback.

The market has washed out the leverage to the bone.

Instead, we are entering a critical phase.

Ethereum (ETH) has already liquidated nearly all high leverage Long Positions in this round of decline. In other words, those who bet on a rebound, held through the drawdown, and tried to catch falling knives with high leverage are being kicked out of the market in waves.

The cruelest part of this liquidation is that it doesn't matter whether your direction was right or wrong; it only looks at whether you can withstand the volatility. As long as ETH gets pushed down a bit more, high leverage longs will trigger Liquidation, which continues to bring selling pressure, ultimately resulting in a cascading effect.

However, from the chart structure, once the high leverage longs are cleaned out, the market will enter a very delicate position. The bad news is that the bulls' confidence has been shattered; the good news is that the easily harvestable leverage fuel has significantly decreased.

Going forward, what really matters for ETH isn't how many people are still calling for a long.

Instead, after the liquidation ends,

we need to see if there are any spot buyers willing to come back and pick up this pile of chips. $BTC $BNB #SpaceX散户机构同价认购

Crypto this wave hit hard.

$1.72 billion liquidated in 24 hours.

Longs took a hit of $1.49 billion.

This isn't just a pullback.

It's a full-on market-wide liquidation waterfall.

In the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw a total liquidation of $1.72B, with Long Positions (multi-position) accounting for $1.49B. This ratio is crucial, indicating that this drop is primarily clearing out leveraged longs, rather than just typical bidirectional volatility.

The harshest part of the market lies here. Everyone was chasing the bottom, adding to their positions, betting on a rebound, and as soon as BTC broke a key level, the system kicked into forced liquidation mode. The first layer of longs got liquidated, and selling pressure continued to hammer down; the second layer of leverage got wiped out, leading to a Liquidation Cascade, dragging the entire market down together.

Now isn’t the time to see who talks tough; it’s about whether real spot buy orders come back after the liquidations. If we can quickly reclaim the key levels after the liquidations, this could be a brutal leverage wash; but if the rebound lacks strength, the liquidity below will continue to be targeted by the market.

$1.72 billion isn't just a number.

It's the market kicking high-leverage longs,

one batch at a time.🩸$BTC $ETH $BNB #VOO首只突破万亿美元ETF

$BTC something feels different today.

Coinbase is starting to buy.

Haven't seen this signal in a while.

US spot is finally making moves.

The retracement is starting to gain some strength.

The most crucial change today isn't how much BTC's price has bounced, but that Coinbase (the US-compliant exchange) is starting to show buy pressure. The toughest part for the market previously was that the derivatives side kept trying to catch the bottom, but the Coinbase Premium wasn't fixing itself, and US spot funds were reluctant to truly enter the market.

Now that Coinbase is starting to buy, it means something different. This usually indicates that US dollar spot buys are flowing back in, especially with US funds and institutions beginning to react. In a weak market, it's not surprising for derivatives to get a pump; what's really important is whether spot is willing to step in.

That's why this signal is worth keeping an eye on. The bulls got wiped out pretty badly, the Funding Rate is starting to cool off, and short positions are piling up thicker. If Coinbase's spot buy pressure starts to recover now, the short's fuel up top might just get ignited.

We can't say BTC has completely reversed yet.

But at least the market is starting to change its flavor.

Haven't seen Coinbase actively buying BTC in a long time,

If this can sustain,

the shorts are going to start feeling the heat.🔥$ETH $BNB #伊朗袭击科威特国际机场

$BTC Liquidity is all stacked up top now.

There’s not much meat left below.

The shorts are piling up thicker and thicker.

The market is starting to get risky.

The next move could be quite thrilling.

Right now, the key signal is that most of the liquidity is stacked above the current price. In other words, the long liquidations below have been swept one after another, and the market has less room to keep eating downwards, while the short positions and stop-losses above are getting denser.

This is quite delicate. The price still looks weak, and the sentiment isn’t fully repaired, but the liquidation structure is starting to lean the other way. The shorts are piling up, and if there’s suddenly a wave of spot buying, the price could easily sweep up first, clearing out those high-leverage short positions that just chased in.

Of course, this doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent. A true Short Squeeze needs capital to ignite and BTC needs to reclaim key levels first. But from a liquidity perspective, the market is no longer a straightforward setup to comfortably open shorts.

The question now isn’t whether there’s meat up top.

It’s already packed.

The real question is:

When does the market start to rise,

to consume that short fuel.🔥$ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

$BTC has already dropped over 25%.

No one could easily dodge this wave.

The bulls have been taken out.

Altcoins have been dragged down.

The market really shows no mercy.

Bitcoin has fallen from its highs, with a cumulative drop exceeding 25%. This level of retracement is no ordinary fluctuation; it has washed out all positions, confidence, and leverage in the entire market.

The harsh truth is that the market won't show leniency whether you're an experienced player, an institution, a whale, or a retail trader. High-leverage long positions will get liquidated, chasing altcoins will lead to further declines, and even the most steadfast HODL narrative will be questioned in the face of such drops.

This is the real side of crypto: when prices rise, everyone thinks they understand the cycles; when they drop, that's when you see who actually knows how to manage their positions and who is just holding on by emotions.

Right now, the crucial point isn't shouting that the bull is back or declaring that everything is over.

Instead, after this 25% drop,

how much real buying power is left in the market,

and who is willing to come back to pick up this pile of chips. 🩸$ETH $XRP #美国通胀持续联储鹰派美元走强

The U.S. crypto regulations are a key point.

CLARITY isn’t about picking sides.

It’s not about favoring a few projects.

It’s about laying down clear rules.

Let the real heavyweights compete on their own.

Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the CLARITY Act (U.S. Crypto Market Structure Clarification Act) isn’t about ‘picking winners,’ but rather allowing the best ideas to compete fairly under clear regulations.

This really hits the core of crypto regulation. What the market fears most isn’t regulation itself, but the ambiguity of the rules. Projects don’t know if they’re classified as securities or commodities, exchanges are unclear about the boundaries, and institutional funds hesitate to dive in big because if the rules can change at any moment, no one wants to make a long-term bet.

The significance of the CLARITY Act lies here: it doesn’t tell the market which projects are guaranteed to win, nor does it endorse a particular chain, exchange, or asset class, but rather sets the game rules first. The clearer the rules, the easier it is for projects that have real products, users, cash flow, and technical barriers to emerge.

This is a long-term positive for Web3. Because when regulation shifts from ‘anyone could be targeted’ to ‘compete by the rules,’ it becomes harder for junk projects to swim in murky waters, while quality projects can more easily gain the trust of institutional capital and traditional finance.

So what really matters isn’t whether the U.S. will favor a specific crypto project.

It’s about once the rules are clear,

who can continue to thrive in the sunlight,

and who will be naturally phased out by the market. $BTC $ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

Liquidity is starting to build up above $BTC .

There’s not much meat left below.

68k is the first target.

74k–75k is the second target.

But the main trend may not have fully reversed yet.

Right now, BTC's liquidity below is relatively thin; many longs have already been liquidated, and what stands out are the two Liquidity Clusters forming above the price.

The first cluster is around 68k. This level is crucial because it’s well suited for a Bearish Retest. If the price sweeps up to 68k from the current range, it can eat up the short liquidity above and also test the resistance level that was broken before, making a lot of logical sense.

The second cluster is higher, around 74k–75k, which is right near the high of the previous consolidation range. As long as BTC continues to operate within the current larger range, technically we can't completely rule out a price spike towards this level, but I wouldn't make it the main scenario. To hit 74k–75k, we need stronger spot buying and a more obvious structural reversal, and the market hasn’t provided that confirmation yet.

So a more realistic path is: BTC first sweeps around the 68k liquidity, completing a bounce and short liquidation, and then if buying pressure doesn’t follow, we continue down the major trend back to the 60k area.

Now is not the time to blindly look for a reversal.

It’s more like:

First, bounce to the resistance level,

Clear out the late shorts,

Then keep moving in the major direction. $ETH $BNB #伊朗袭击科威特国际机场

$BTC just tried to bounce back.

The whales are done playing coy.

As soon as they see a retracement.

They jump right in for a sell opportunity.

This isn’t just ordinary sell pressure.

It’s big money precisely slamming the order book.

The moment the charts show a little bounce, the whales immediately start making moves. For retail traders, this pullback might seem like a glimmer of hope; but for the big players, it’s probably just a better exit point, a chance to short, or a place to push prices down.

That’s the tough spot for BTC right now. It’s not that there aren’t any bounces; it’s just that every time it tries to rise, someone slams it back down. Bulls want to fix the structure, but bears and the whales see the bounce as a liquidity exit.

In a weak market, what you really fear about a bounce isn’t the height of it, but rather the lack of sustained buying pressure. Once big money starts unloading from above, the bounce can easily turn into a trap, and those who chase it get caught off guard when the next drop hits.

So don’t get fooled by a single bounce too early.

The whales aren’t missing the bounce.

They see it,

and then they slam it back down. $ETH $BNB #伊朗袭击科威特国际机场

$BTC is back at the hardest support.

The 200-Week MA is right beneath us.

This line isn't just any technical level.

It’s only really been breached during true systemic meltdowns.

For Strategy, this pressure might not be enough.

David Hoffman stated that Bitcoin is currently sitting on the 200-Week MA, a line that has only been broken during systemic crises of the level of Terra, 3AC, and FTX.

This is crucial. The 200-Week MA isn’t some random support drawn by day traders; it’s one of the most significant lifelines in BTC’s multi-cycle journey. Each time the price gets here, the market undergoes a real stress test: is the panic over, or is a deeper crisis just beginning?

Hoffman’s point is straightforward: if BTC is really going to breach this line, the market needs to see pressure more severe than what Strategy’s $STRC issuance can create. In other words, merely because Strategy is issuing financing tools and market sentiment is shaky, it may not be enough to break this historical level of support for BTC.

Sure, the charts look grim right now, liquidations are harsh, and sentiment is poor. But what truly breaks through the 200-Week MA isn’t just typical bearish news; it’s a liquidity crisis, institutional domino failures, or a collapse of market trust at that level.

So, this isn’t about blindly going long.

Instead, we need to differentiate:

Ordinary panic can test support,

but to break this line,

the market needs a bigger black swan. $ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

$BTC This signal has finally changed.

Funding Rate has flipped negative.

First time since 78k.

Longs have been pretty much cleared out.

Spot Volume is starting to pick up.

BTC's Aggregated Funding Rate has now turned negative, which is the first occurrence of this kind in about 3 weeks since we were around 78k. This shift is crucial because it indicates that the sentiment in the futures market has shifted from 'long overcrowding' to 'shorts gaining the upper hand'.

But this isn't necessarily a bad thing.

A negative Funding Rate typically means that those high-leverage longs have been mostly liquidated. The toughest part for the market previously was that longs were trying to catch the bottom while getting wrecked, and the futures side was continuously fueling the decline. Now, the longs have been FULLY Destroyed, and the market feels much lighter.

More importantly, Spot Volume is starting to increase. The futures sentiment is cooling down, but the spot market is picking up volume, which creates an interesting situation: it's not just a matter of perpetual contracts forcefully pushing prices up; there may actually be real buy pressure starting to re-emerge.

So right now, BTC isn't necessarily about to reverse immediately, but the structure is finally starting to look a bit healthier. With the long leverage getting washed out, the Funding Rate flipping negative, and spot trading volume increasing, these signals together at least indicate that the market is no longer in that previous state of 'everyone is on high leverage catching knives'.

What we really need to watch for is the next step:

Can the spot buying pressure sustain?

If it can,

this negative Funding Rate might just be the early sign of a rebound. 🔥$ETH $BNB #伊朗袭击科威特国际机场

This liquidation at $BTC is absolutely insane.

295,275 traders got wrecked.

Total liquidation amount is $1.8 billion.

But the bulls still haven’t learned their lesson.

At 61k, they’re starting to stack 100x longs again.

In this recent drop, the Crypto market saw a total of 295,275 traders getting liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching $1.80B. This level of liquidation isn’t just ordinary volatility; it’s a systemic washout of leverage across the entire market.

The issue is, right after the previous wreck, new high-leverage bulls are back. Around 61k, they’re already piling up new 100x Long Liquidation positions. In other words, just as the last batch got sent packing by the market, the next batch rushes in to bet on a rebound.

This is the harsh reality of BTC right now. Every dip knocks the bulls into questioning their existence, but as soon as the price pauses even slightly, the Degens (high-risk gambler type traders) jump back in, using 100x leverage to catch the knife.

The market loves this kind of action. Because with 100x leverage, there’s basically no room for error; if the price dips just a little, it can wipe out those positions entirely.

$1.8 billion just got wrecked,

and at 61k, new prey is being set up.

This isn’t bottom fishing,

it’s betting your last paycheck against the market.🩸$ETH $BNB #伊朗袭击科威特国际机场

$BTC This dip isn't just a liquidation.

Accumulation addresses are seeing inflows hitting new highs for this cycle.

And it's breaking records for two consecutive days.

Retail traders are panic selling.

Whales are scooping it all up from below.

Yesterday, BTC inflow to Accumulation Addresses recorded the largest scale this cycle. More importantly, this isn’t just a one-day fluke; the day before showed strong accumulation, and the next day refreshed the record again, indicating that the buying at these lows isn’t just scattered retail purchases, but rather big funds are systematically loading up.

Accumulation Addresses typically represent wallets that are in for the long haul, with funds flowing into these addresses meaning the chips aren’t heading to exchanges to sell, but are being taken off the market, settled, and locked into stronger hands.

Now that's interesting. On the charts, BTC is on a downward trend, and retail traders are seeing breakdowns, liquidations, panic, and asking 'will it keep crashing'; but what’s visible on-chain tells a different story: Whales first push down the market sentiment, allowing retail to hand over their chips in fear, and then they gradually absorb those sell orders at these low levels.

To put it simply, it's not that nobody's buying.

It's that retail is selling to the whales.

Prices are creating panic,

but the chips are quietly consolidating. $ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

$BTC This short position is way too close to the face.

$25.8 million.

40x leverage.

Only $400 away from liquidation.

This isn’t just a short; it's putting your life on the line.

Someone just opened a BTC short for $25,808,000, cranking the leverage up to 40x. The most thrilling part is that this position is roughly $400 away from liquidation.

For BTC, $400 is practically nothing—just a small prick. Especially now that the shorts are getting crowded above, the market loves to keep an eye on these big positions with liquidation prices out in the open; if the price nudges up just a little, this $25.8 million short could be wiped out in an instant.

The most dangerous thing about this trade isn’t necessarily being wrong on direction, but rather having almost zero margin for error. You might be spot on with the big trend, but if there’s even a slight short-term reversal, that 40x leverage won’t give you a shot at survival.

The market is pretty straightforward right now:

The bears look fierce,

But this position is just $400 away,

A little upward movement in the market,

Could send him packing.🔥$ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

$BTC is still holding above 63k right now.

But the pre-market action for U.S. stocks isn’t looking too hot.

Nasdaq futures are down 1.13%.

S&P futures are also in the red.

Risk asset sentiment hasn’t come back yet.

BTC is currently still above 63,000 dollars, and this level is crucial for short-term trading. If it holds, the market can continue to talk about a bounce and structural repair; if it doesn’t hold, lower levels like 61k and 60k will be back in focus.

The macro signals ahead of the market open are a bit mixed. Nasdaq Futures are down 1.13%, and S&P Futures are down 0.32%, indicating a weak risk appetite in U.S. stocks. However, at the same time, DXY (Dollar Index) and Oil are also trending down, suggesting this isn’t just about dollar pressure but more about the market re-evaluating growth expectations and risk sentiment.

For BTC, the most awkward situation right now is that a weaker dollar should ideally give risk assets some breathing room, but the drop in U.S. stock futures shows that funds are still hesitant to chase risk. In other words, the macro environment isn’t one-sidedly bullish; it’s more like, “the pressure has eased, but buyer interest hasn’t shown up.”

So, 63k is now a key observation point for sentiment.

If it holds, BTC could seize the opportunity to make a recovery with the weaker dollar.

If it doesn’t hold,

the U.S. market might continue to test the bullish bottom line. $ETH $BNB #美国初请失业金22.5万人

$BTC finally touched the 200-Week Moving Average.

This position is not ordinary.

In every bear market cycle, it gets targeted by the market.

There’s a chance for a short-term bounce.

But whether it can stop the drop depends on the buy-side action.

Bitcoin has already hit the 200-Week Moving Average, a significant line in BTC's historical cycles. In past bear markets, prices have typically tested this line, so being pushed down to this level is indeed a crucial juncture.

The pressing question now is: is this a starting point for a rebound, or just a continuation of the downtrend?

From a short-term perspective, BTC has dropped too quickly, the shorts are sitting on hefty profits, and bull sentiment has been shattered. With the price hovering near the 200-Week MA, there's a decent chance we could see a technical bounce first, as the market needs to confirm whether there's real support here.

However, we can't idolize this line. The moving average is a key reference, not an absolute bottom. What really matters is whether BTC can gain volume and stabilize here, and reclaim the critical levels it previously broke. If it only bounces slightly, with spot not supporting and the structure not repairing, that bounce could simply provide the shorts with a better re-entry point.

So, it’s not the time to mindlessly call a bottom, nor is it the optimal moment to keep chasing shorts.

BTC has hit a historically significant line.

The next few candlesticks will determine whether this is a brake,

or just a breather before the next leg down. $ETH $BNB #美财长敦促参院通过CLARITY法案

BlackRock is seeing significant outflows.

$BTC 10 days saw a net outflow of 30,119 BTC.

ETH has also been pulled out, with 161,829 coins leaving.

Institutional buying is starting to cool off.

What the market fears most is this kind of continuous selling pressure.

In the past 10 days, BlackRock recorded a net outflow of 30,119 Bitcoin, worth about $1.92 billion; meanwhile, 161,829 Ethereum also flowed out, valued at around $320 million.

This signal is substantial. A single day of outflows can be explained as normal volatility, but ten consecutive days of this level of Net Outflow indicates that the pressure on the capital side isn't just a prick; it's a sustained drain.

Of course, BlackRock's outflow doesn’t necessarily mean they're suddenly bearish on BTC or ETH; often, it could stem from ETF Redemptions, client fund reallocations, custodial transfers, or portfolio rebalancing. But in a weak market, there’s no time for a slow analysis of the details; upon seeing these numbers, the first reaction is: institutional buying is no longer stable, and the selling pressure isn’t over.

This is where Crypto is feeling the pinch the most. Previously, BlackRock was one of the strongest institutional backers in the bull market narrative, but now, as long as they have continuous outflows, market sentiment will be amplified and hit hard.

The real key isn't just the 30,119 BTC and 161,829 ETH that have already flowed out.

It's about if BlackRock doesn't stop the bleeding,

who else in the market will absorb this selling pressure? $BNB $ETH #美国初请失业金22.5万人

Bitmine is gearing up for some serious leverage again.

$ETH isn't just talk.

9.5% yield preferred stock funding.

Just finished a big buy on ETH, and now they're raising funds again.

The target is still to scoop up 5% of Ethereum's supply.

Bitmine recently filed for a Preferred Stock Offering, planning to raise funds through preferred stocks with a 9.5% yield. This move comes shortly after they completed the largest ETH buy of 2026, indicating that this company isn't just shouting short-term slogans; they're seriously using the capital markets to keep pumping liquidity into their ETH position.

What's more crucial is that Bitmine has recently expanded its Buyback Program to $4 billion. They're boosting buybacks with one hand while issuing preferred stock for funding with the other, and channeling the funds into accumulating Ethereum—this strategy is clear: they want to turn themselves into an ETH-based asset reserve machine.

What the market really cares about isn't just the 9.5% yield itself, but how high of a cost they're willing to pay to gain exposure to ETH. 9.5% isn't a low cost; it shows this isn't cheap money. Yet they still choose to finance, indicating that the management's view on ETH's long-term potential is quite aggressive.

If the Strategy represents the Bitcoin corporate reserve narrative, then Bitmine is trying to apply the same logic to ETH.

This isn't just ordinary buying.

This is long-term accumulation for ETH using the capital markets.

The real excitement ahead is:

How far are they from that 5% Ethereum supply target,

exactly.🔥$BTC $BNB #美国通胀持续联储鹰派美元走强

$BTC The ideal script here is pretty clear.

61k–62k will likely see a bounce first.

It's not a direct reversal.

Instead, it's about taking out the late shorts first.

Once BTC hits the 61k–62k zone, the most logical short-term movement isn’t to keep smashing down, but to have a bounce first, clearing out those late shorts who just jumped in.

This kind of position is prone to a short squeeze. After a price drop, many traders see a breakdown and start shorting, but when positions get squeezed, the market can flip and take out these newly opened high-leverage shorts. Especially now that there are more and more shorts piling up above, even if the overall trend is weak, there’s still room for a short squeeze recovery in the short term.

But that doesn’t mean BTC has hit the bottom. The ideal scenario looks more like this: first bouncing from 61k–62k, taking out some of the short positions, and repairing the structure after an excessive drop. If the spot buying doesn’t come in and the bounce isn’t stable, we could still be looking for deeper liquidity down the line.

So right now, it’s not about blindly going long, nor is it comfortable to keep chasing shorts at these low levels.

At 61k–62k,

let's first look for a bounce to clear out the shorts.

If the bounce lacks volume,
$ETH
then the move down could be even more aggressive. $BNB #美伊冲突加密市场大规模清算