Kichimuku
Kichimuku here Crypto vet sharing no-BS insights from market trenches. Real tactics to beat volatility minus the hype. Follow @kichimuku for solid tips updates
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Press TV, the Iranian state media agency, reported on X that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has passed away and described him as a "martyr".
Fars News reported that Khamenei's daughter, son-in-law, and grandchild also lost their lives, along with more than 200 others.
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency under the United Nations will hold an emergency meeting at 9 AM on Monday Eastern Time to discuss the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This meeting was proposed by Russia
$BTC
Fars News reported that Khamenei's daughter, son-in-law, and grandchild also lost their lives, along with more than 200 others.
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency under the United Nations will hold an emergency meeting at 9 AM on Monday Eastern Time to discuss the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This meeting was proposed by Russia
$BTC
Good morning ☕️☀️
Waking up early in the morning to see big news
Vice President JD Vance stated that U.S. officials have left peace negotiations in Pakistan after Iran refused to commit to not developing nuclear weapons.
The official negotiations failed after 21 hours of tension, with the U.S. leaving after making a final offer.
Iran stated that they do not trust the U.S. due to previous experiences from two wars.
President Trump stated that the U.S. will block all vessels entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Navy will check the ships and prevent payments to Iran.
This means the U.S. is looking to directly control the strait, a significant escalation. The U.S. is blocking all flow so that Iran cannot benefit at all, thus putting pressure on Iran but the entire market has to suffer pain.
$BTC
$ETH
Waking up early in the morning to see big news
Vice President JD Vance stated that U.S. officials have left peace negotiations in Pakistan after Iran refused to commit to not developing nuclear weapons.
The official negotiations failed after 21 hours of tension, with the U.S. leaving after making a final offer.
Iran stated that they do not trust the U.S. due to previous experiences from two wars.
President Trump stated that the U.S. will block all vessels entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Navy will check the ships and prevent payments to Iran.
This means the U.S. is looking to directly control the strait, a significant escalation. The U.S. is blocking all flow so that Iran cannot benefit at all, thus putting pressure on Iran but the entire market has to suffer pain.
$BTC
$ETH
THE MARKET IS FILLED WITH PARADOXES
President Trump says negotiations with Iran are progressing well → But oil prices continue to rise sharply, exceeding $100
Oil prices rise, inflation pressure → But the Fed believes there is no need to raise interest rates
The market sentiment index is at an extremely fearful level (8) → But stock prices remain near their peak, not collapsing at all
Geopolitical instability is increasing
→ But gold is not rising sharply
→ $BTC , an asset considered to be high-risk is not decreasing anymore
President Trump says negotiations with Iran are progressing well → But oil prices continue to rise sharply, exceeding $100
Oil prices rise, inflation pressure → But the Fed believes there is no need to raise interest rates
The market sentiment index is at an extremely fearful level (8) → But stock prices remain near their peak, not collapsing at all
Geopolitical instability is increasing
→ But gold is not rising sharply
→ $BTC , an asset considered to be high-risk is not decreasing anymore
🇺🇸🇨🇳 The prices of goods may soon rise, and this time the reason is not just simple inflation but comes from the oil price shock. Chinese manufacturers are warning that they will have to raise prices on exports to the U.S. due to rising input costs. Oil is a core raw material for producing plastics such as polypropylene, polyester, and PVC, materials that appear in most everyday consumer products. As oil prices rise, production costs increase accordingly, and businesses have little choice but to pass those costs onto buyers. Currently, many parties have increased prices by 5% to 20%, and they even keep open the possibility of further increases if the situation continues to escalate.
But what is more noteworthy lies behind. As the supply of raw materials begins to be disrupted and is hard to replace, the risk of shortages will gradually emerge. If this situation persists, industries will have to compete directly for limited supplies, and in such times, essential sectors like automotive or healthcare are usually prioritized. The rest of the economy will feel the pressure. And when gas prices rise, commodity prices rise, consumers are forced to spend more on basic needs, meaning they will cut back on spending on other things. That's when pressure begins to spread, not only in businesses but across the entire economy.
$BTC
$ETH
But what is more noteworthy lies behind. As the supply of raw materials begins to be disrupted and is hard to replace, the risk of shortages will gradually emerge. If this situation persists, industries will have to compete directly for limited supplies, and in such times, essential sectors like automotive or healthcare are usually prioritized. The rest of the economy will feel the pressure. And when gas prices rise, commodity prices rise, consumers are forced to spend more on basic needs, meaning they will cut back on spending on other things. That's when pressure begins to spread, not only in businesses but across the entire economy.
$BTC
$ETH
🇦🇺 Australia had to purchase emergency fuel from the USA for the first time in many decades as the global oil crisis continues to put pressure on the supply chain.
This move comes after 6 shipments of fuel from major suppliers in Asia, including Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, were canceled.
$BTC
$ETH
This move comes after 6 shipments of fuel from major suppliers in Asia, including Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea, were canceled.
$BTC
$ETH
Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF will only charge a fee of 0.14% per year, becoming the cheapest Spot Bitcoin ETF on the market and lower than IBIT by 0.11%
This means that their advisors will no longer face conflicts of interest when using this product, while also providing them with the opportunity to attract external capital. Morgan Stanley aims to capture market share from BlackRock
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$ETH
This means that their advisors will no longer face conflicts of interest when using this product, while also providing them with the opportunity to attract external capital. Morgan Stanley aims to capture market share from BlackRock
$BTC
$ETH
MARKET UPDATES:
The US market continues to decline as instability surrounding the escalating conflict in Iran rises, while oil prices surge. Although President Trump has extended the deadline for attacking Iran's energy facilities to April 6 to de-escalate tensions and pave the way for negotiations, the market remains skeptical as Iran denies participating in direct talks, shipping disruptions continue, and reports emerge that the US may deploy more troops to the region.
Tensions are further heightened as 2 ultra-large container ships belonging to China Ocean Shipping Company were forced to turn back while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, dismissing all rumors that Chinese ships were allowed to navigate. This is particularly noteworthy as China is seen as an ally of Iran, yet even their ships are being blocked.
Market response:
🔴 Dow down 400 points (-0.75%), temporarily falling into correction territory (> -10% from peak)
🔴 S&P 500 -0.74%
🔴 Nasdaq -1.11%
🟢 Gold +1.61% at $4,448
🔴 $BTC -3.54% to $66K (returning to the level when the conflict began on February 28)
🟢 Oil +3.18% to $97.48
The US market continues to decline as instability surrounding the escalating conflict in Iran rises, while oil prices surge. Although President Trump has extended the deadline for attacking Iran's energy facilities to April 6 to de-escalate tensions and pave the way for negotiations, the market remains skeptical as Iran denies participating in direct talks, shipping disruptions continue, and reports emerge that the US may deploy more troops to the region.
Tensions are further heightened as 2 ultra-large container ships belonging to China Ocean Shipping Company were forced to turn back while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, dismissing all rumors that Chinese ships were allowed to navigate. This is particularly noteworthy as China is seen as an ally of Iran, yet even their ships are being blocked.
Market response:
🔴 Dow down 400 points (-0.75%), temporarily falling into correction territory (> -10% from peak)
🔴 S&P 500 -0.74%
🔴 Nasdaq -1.11%
🟢 Gold +1.61% at $4,448
🔴 $BTC -3.54% to $66K (returning to the level when the conflict began on February 28)
🟢 Oil +3.18% to $97.48
CRYPTO NEWS THIS MORNING
🔹 The US is getting closer to allowing crypto in 401(k) retirement funds
The US government is considering allowing crypto and alternative assets in 401(k) retirement funds. A proposal from the Department of Labor has passed the White House review stage, paving the way for this change. Previously, the government was quite cautious with crypto, but now the perspective is gradually becoming more open to expand investment options for the public. If approved, crypto could access a massive retirement market in the US.
🔹 Tether hires major auditor for greater transparency
According to the Financial Times, Tether has hired KPMG for a comprehensive audit of USDT and PwC to assist with internal systems. Currently, USDT has a supply of about 185 billion USD, making it the largest stablecoin in the market. Tether also stated that it holds over 122 billion USD in US government bonds.
🔹 Binance Australia fined for misclassifying customers
Binance Australia was fined 10 million AUD (~6.9 million USD) for violating investor protection regulations. Over 85% of customers were misclassified, including 524 retail investors categorized as professional clients, allowing them access to high-risk crypto derivative products without adequate protection. The cause stemmed from a lax vetting process and inadequate staff training, allowing users to retake the test multiple times to meet the “professional” standard.
$ETH
$BTC
🔹 The US is getting closer to allowing crypto in 401(k) retirement funds
The US government is considering allowing crypto and alternative assets in 401(k) retirement funds. A proposal from the Department of Labor has passed the White House review stage, paving the way for this change. Previously, the government was quite cautious with crypto, but now the perspective is gradually becoming more open to expand investment options for the public. If approved, crypto could access a massive retirement market in the US.
🔹 Tether hires major auditor for greater transparency
According to the Financial Times, Tether has hired KPMG for a comprehensive audit of USDT and PwC to assist with internal systems. Currently, USDT has a supply of about 185 billion USD, making it the largest stablecoin in the market. Tether also stated that it holds over 122 billion USD in US government bonds.
🔹 Binance Australia fined for misclassifying customers
Binance Australia was fined 10 million AUD (~6.9 million USD) for violating investor protection regulations. Over 85% of customers were misclassified, including 524 retail investors categorized as professional clients, allowing them access to high-risk crypto derivative products without adequate protection. The cause stemmed from a lax vetting process and inadequate staff training, allowing users to retake the test multiple times to meet the “professional” standard.
$ETH
$BTC
REUTERS: Russian oil producers have warned buyers that they may declare "force majeure" on supplies from major ports in the Baltic Sea, as Ukraine continues attacks on energy infrastructure at Russian Baltic ports, threatening to disrupt export capabilities.
"Force majeure" is a legal term that allows businesses to temporarily suspend or not fulfill contractual obligations when events beyond their control occur, such as war, natural disasters, or attacks. Simply put, if this is declared, companies may not deliver oil without penalties.
This move indicates that risks in the regional energy supply chain are increasing, and the oil supply shock crisis may soon become more serious.
$BTC
$ETH
"Force majeure" is a legal term that allows businesses to temporarily suspend or not fulfill contractual obligations when events beyond their control occur, such as war, natural disasters, or attacks. Simply put, if this is declared, companies may not deliver oil without penalties.
This move indicates that risks in the regional energy supply chain are increasing, and the oil supply shock crisis may soon become more serious.
$BTC
$ETH
Based on the demand for MicroStrategy's preferred stock STRC, it is estimated that the company could buy more than 114 $BTC today.
COINBASE, BLOCK, RIVER AND THE BITCOIN POLICY INSTITUTE ARE PUSHING FOR TAX EXEMPTION FOR CRYPTO TRANSACTIONS
The goal is to eliminate capital gains tax on small daily transactions, making crypto more practical for use as a payment method, such as buying coffee or everyday spending without having to calculate gains and losses for each transaction in the U.S.
This approach will treat crypto similarly to foreign currency, thereby reducing the tax burden and increasing its usability in everyday life. The bill is also similar to existing tax exemption regulations for small foreign currency transactions under 200 USD, the sale of low-value personal items such as electronic devices, or small gains from savings bonds, aiming to simplify tax obligations for citizens.
$BTC
$ETH
The goal is to eliminate capital gains tax on small daily transactions, making crypto more practical for use as a payment method, such as buying coffee or everyday spending without having to calculate gains and losses for each transaction in the U.S.
This approach will treat crypto similarly to foreign currency, thereby reducing the tax burden and increasing its usability in everyday life. The bill is also similar to existing tax exemption regulations for small foreign currency transactions under 200 USD, the sale of low-value personal items such as electronic devices, or small gains from savings bonds, aiming to simplify tax obligations for citizens.
$BTC
$ETH
The Reserve Bank of Australia is seeing great potential from asset tokenization (RWA).
After a pilot project, they estimate that this technology could bring about $16.7 billion per year to the economy, and it could be even larger if more new markets emerge.
Therefore, the focus is no longer on "whether to do it or not," but on how to do it. Australia is planning to further test through a "sandbox" to explore new models such as:
- Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
- Stablecoin.
- Tokenized deposits.
$BTC
$ETH
After a pilot project, they estimate that this technology could bring about $16.7 billion per year to the economy, and it could be even larger if more new markets emerge.
Therefore, the focus is no longer on "whether to do it or not," but on how to do it. Australia is planning to further test through a "sandbox" to explore new models such as:
- Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
- Stablecoin.
- Tokenized deposits.
$BTC
$ETH
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