While the miner reward before the first halving was 50 #btc It will be 3,125 with the last halving.
With the supply constantly decreasing, $BTC is making considerable gains.
Alright what now?
When we examine the previous movements, although there were very good increases after the Halving, BTC upward momentum has always lost its strength. Considering the regulations, this year may be the last period in which we will see incredible rises in altcoins.
Although short-term movements bother us as investors, it will not be possible to find these prices after a few months. Of course, it is not possible to call these bottoms, but they are definitely good places to buy.
The market has been fixated on one thing in recent months: When will the FED ease?
The problem itself is not wrong. But it is lacking.
Because the move currently playing the global balance is coming not from Washington, but from Tokyo. Moreover, not loudly.
Japan has been the silent balancing element of the system for years. Negative interest, unlimited bond purchases, suppressed yield curve… These were not aggressive policies. They were mandatory choices bearing the burden of the global system.
The issue is: This burden can no longer be carried.
NO ONE IS LOOKING AT THE FUNDING TABLE FROM THE RIGHT PLACE.
Everyone is asking the same thing: "With so many sales, why is the price still holding up?" A culprit is being sought: news, the FED, whales, manipulation.
But that’s not the real reason.
THE REAL REASON: LEVERAGE CLEANING. Without understanding this, those talking about price will lose.
Funding data alone says this: The market is not falling because spot is not being sold. But no one is winning because the perpetual is being systematically drained.
LET'S SEPARATE THE FLOW.
ETH: • 4h–12h perpetual: above -1B$ • Spot side is negative but weak → Leveraged longs are being liquidated → Spot side is observing, no panic
BTC: • Perpetual is already heavily negative • But the difference is: spot is also coming out • 7d–15d spot: -1B$+ → Distribution in BTC has been spread out over time
Conclusion: Risk appetite is being held in ETH, reduced in BTC.
HISTORICAL PATTERN IS CLEAR.
2019 – 2022 – 2023: • First, the perpetual is drained • Funding is suppressed • Price is kept horizontal • Everyone says "boring market" • Then direction comes
The same table, the same result.
WHERE ARE WE TODAY? We are exactly at this point: • Funding is negative • Volatility is low • Spot is not panicking • The perpetual side is quietly being cleaned
This phase is not the start of a trend, it's the position reset phase.
LET'S GO IN PHASES.
Phase 1: Leverage cleaning (currently here) Phase 2: Funding balances, spot comes to the fore After that: Movement starts but most people are late
Everyone is talking about Phase 3. The market is still in Phase 1.
CLEAR DISTINCTION:
BTC can remain horizontal. But there will be no altcoin season without spot entry.
ETH can remain strong. But there will be no healthy rise without funding correcting.
WARNING: Not everyone can win in this period. The phenomenon listens, takes a position. Those looking at data wait.
This is the patience phase. It’s not excitement, it's filtering time.
1) BTC – The Market's Backbone •Spot: 538.7M$ •Perp: 2.50B$
BTC carries both real cash inflow and the highest leverage pressure. This indicates the trend is still driven by BTC, but the price on the perp side is overly crowded.
→ Result: Upward movements come with compression, downward movements generate sharp long liquidations.
2) ETH – Leverage Present, Spot Absent •Not listed on spot •Perp: 2.14B$
ETH is almost entirely traded on futures expectations. This structure typically signals two things: •A delayed spot entry is anticipated •Or, if price stays below expectations, it will be quickly unwound
→ Fragile structure.
3) SOL – Balanced But On the Edge •Spot: 19.35M$ •Perp: 172.37M$
SOL is one of the rare assets where spot and perp are working together. However, perp has significantly outpaced spot.
→ Trend may continue, but the risk-reward ratio is weakening compared to BTC.
On the Perp side, risk appetite is still high. ETH ($323M) and BTC ($286M) are far ahead; leveraged positions indicate that big players are on the stage. The strong position of ZEC and SOL in Perp suggests that speculative interest continues.
On the Spot side, the picture is more cautious. SENTIS and ZEC stand out while stable assets like USDC and EUR attract attention. This indicates that a 'wait-and-see' mode dominates the market.
Perp = risk & speed,
Spot = balance & protection.
Smart money is taking positions in both lanes, but the message is clear: volatility is not over.
Bitcoin Spot Exchange Netflow (Total) data clearly tells us this: The market narrative and the movement of money are not the same thing. What happens when netflow is positive? BTCs enter exchanges. This means: the supply ready for sale is increasing.
What happens when netflow is negative? BTCs are withdrawn from exchanges. This means: there is no intention to sell, there is an intention to hold. Now look at the chart again. As the price rises, green bars (net inflows) are increasing. So while the price goes up, "smart money" is moving BTC to exchanges. This is distribution behavior. Where is the critical part? The massive red netflow bars that come when the price drops sharply.
Here, retail is panicking, saying "the bear has started", social media goes silent. But on-chain data simultaneously tells us this:
➡️ Big players are withdrawing BTC from exchanges. This is not a contradiction. This is a summary of how markets work. Retail sees price. Professional flows see.
Distribution; • When news is good, • When charts look nice, • When there is hope.
Accumulation is done; • When there is fear, • In silence, • When no one is looking.
Netflow data is important for this reason. Because it shows not what is said, but what is done. Price is transient. Narrative is transient. But on-chain flows reveal the true intention of money.
If you look at the chart and still say "everyone is selling", you are looking in the wrong place.
❗️This is not investment advice. It is an on-chain data reading.
Not just the price, money is moving. And if money is coming from two places at the same time, there is a story there.
1️⃣ Double-Sided Flow = Solid Ground
UNI, ADA, BCH, BNB, PEPE → Risk is taken both in Perp → Position is being carried in Spot
This combination generally indicates: •Not just a short squeeze •Not just hype •There is "Expectation + Positioning"
📌 Especially: •UNI: Quiet but deep accumulation on the DeFi side •BNB: Spot looks weak but still has aggressive interest in Perp → Raises the question "Is news coming?" •PEPE: Despite being a meme, it is on both lists → Not pure gambling, being traded strategically
2️⃣ BTC Detail is Important
BTC is far ahead in Perp with 114M$ But it's not on the Spot list.
What does this mean? •The leveraged side is excessively active •Spot investors are in "wait-and-see" mode
📉 Such separations generally: •Sharp wick •Or sudden direction change are seen before.
3️⃣ The Real Surprise: SENTIS
25M$ There is Spot entry but not on the Perp list.
This is very critical because: •Without leverage •Quiet •Panic-free money entry
🧠 These types of flows generally: •Early position •Medium-term expectation •Accumulation "without everyone noticing"
BTC is currently hovering around $87,448, and looking at the funding data, the situation is somewhat concerning.
On the perp side, $6.9 billion has fled in the last 30 days, $3.6 billion in 15 days, and over $800 million in 7 days... The spot side is also quite negative, for example, $3.47 billion in 30 days.
In short, long positions have paid a significant funding cost, while the short side has remained in an advantageous position during this process.
The market seems to be tightening a bit on longs these days; those entering long positions with leverage may have struggled.
I think at these levels, don't rush; opening long positions when funding is this negative can be costly. It seems wise to patiently wait for healthier entry points.
Of course, everyone knows their own risk, but be careful; your money is valuable.
If someone still says 'Market Safe' while looking at the 4H cash flow, they are holding the chart upside down.
The only clear thing on the 4-hour chart is this: 📌 Spot money is waiting on the sidelines 📌 Perp side is still gambling.
What does it mean that USDC is at the top in spot with 73M on the 4H?
It doesn't say 'buy', it says 'I am watching'.
ETH, SOL, BNB are in the spot, but there is no appetite. This is not accumulation, this is indecision.
On the perp side, in the 4-hour period: BTC + ETH 200M+ funding. So the trader is even in the 4-hour candle with the mindset of 'now or never'.
Do you know where the riskier part is? Things like PENGU, TRUMP, PEPE are inflating on both spot and perp in the 4H.
What does this mean?
While smart money is waiting, impatient money is jumping ahead with leverage.
If there is such a divergence in the 4H data, write this down: ❗️ The possibility of a fake breakout is high ❗️ Sudden wicks are not a coincidence ❗️ Liquidity hunting is very close
This chart is not a bull chart. This chart is a 'who is resilient?' test. $BTC $ETH $BNB
This data clearly states: The issue in the Memecoin market is not the price, but the leverage.
#DOGE
In the short term (hourly periods), there is significant long appetite on the perp side. However, in time frames of 3 days and above, there is a sharp outflow of money on both the perp and spot sides. This table generally indicates:
Reactive longs are being opened, but big players and long-term money are exiting the market. Although the price seems to be holding, the infrastructure is weak.
#SHIB
The spot side is occasionally positive; this is the small investor trying to buy the dip. However, the perp side is continuously negative in the medium to long term.
In other words, leveraged traders are fleeing, while spot traders are buying on hope. This combination generally does not lead to a strong rally; it produces sideways-downward crawling.
#PEPE
The clearest “revelation” is here. After a short-term hype, aggressive perp exits and spot sales are coming. This is a classic cycle:
Inflated with leverage → liquidation → silence. Money in PEPE has gone into protection, and risk appetite has decreased.
#FLOKI
It stands out from the others. There is reluctance on the perp side, but the spot side is steadily positive. This generally means:
No big leverage, there is a quiet accumulation. However, this does not immediately mean a pump; it requires patience.
General Market Reading • There is a clear flight from risk on the perp (leveraged) side • In periods of 7 days or more, there is money outflow in almost all memecoins • The spot side, especially driven by small investors, is more resilient
This table tells us:
The market is currently not in a “winning” mode but in a sorting mode.
Real lows generally come when everyone starts to hate leverage. We are currently in that process.
We are in a period where the noise in the blockchain world often obscures the truth. SKALE is one of the projects that moves forward without generating noise. There is a serious renewal on the network side, a stable expansion in use cases, and an architectural preference aimed at increasing the performance of Web3 applications. To understand this picture, one needs to look not only at the numbers but also at the motivation driving the project. The strongest aspect of the network is its application-focused architecture. Instead of being trapped within the confines of a single main chain, it offers developers the opportunity to create their own independent chains. This approach creates a significant design difference in the scalability debate, which has been the toughest barrier for Web3 for years. The increase in the number of applications and the community's growth rate are also key indicators that demonstrate this architecture works in practice.