七叔交易员

$币安人生 Execute every strategy diligently!

Mainstream altcoin strategy #跟单 scan to add friends.

Regarding altcoins, the market is incredibly tempting right now.

FOMO and FUD are the common traps to fall into!

This season, the most common mistake is chasing pumps and dumps.

Rotation and uptrends are the characteristics, so patiently hold your position.

Current holdings will outperform chasing those volatile spikes.
#比特币突破7.9万美元 #Crypto market rebound

The Powell Era Comes to a Close! What Did He Do in 8 Years?

The Federal Reserve's April meeting has wrapped up, marking the last official meeting for Powell as Chair. With Kevin Warsh set to take the helm, the Powell era, which has governed the U.S. central bank for 8 years, has officially come to an end.

Many folks remember old Powell mainly for rate hikes and cuts, but he navigated through the most turbulent economic cycles in U.S. history: from once-in-a-century pandemics to 40-year-high inflation, and then to the fastest rate hike cycle ever. Powell took office in 2018 and will step down in April 2026, his tenure a wild ride of monetary policy extremes, with interest rates fluctuating more than they have in nearly 40 years.

Interest rates have surged and plummeted: when he took office, the benchmark rate was 1.25%-1.5%; after the pandemic hit in 2020, it dropped straight to a historic low of 0%-0.25%; in March 2022, the rate hike cycle began, with 11 consecutive hikes bringing it up to a peak of 5.5%-5.75% in 2022; by September 2024, rate cuts began, ending his term at 3.5%-3.75%. Over 8 years, rates fluctuated more than 5 percentage points, making it the most aggressive monetary policy since Volcker.

Massive money printing: During the pandemic, unlimited quantitative easing was unleashed, causing the Fed's balance sheet to skyrocket from $4 trillion in early 2020 to $9 trillion by 2022, printing half of the total money supply created in the U.S. in over 200 years.

The global market experienced a split: half in a bull market frenzy and half in a bear market disaster. Powell's monetary policy directly influenced global capital flows, creating a stark contrast in the past 8 years: the U.S. stock market saw one of its longest bull runs ever, with the Dow Jones jumping from 25,000 to 42,000, an increase of 68%; the Nasdaq leaped from 7,000 to 16,500, a rise of 135%.

The crypto market was also heavily influenced by Powell's policies, experiencing massive inflows of hot money after 2020's liquidity explosion. Bitcoin surged from $3,000 to $69,000, while Ethereum skyrocketed from $100 to $4,800, with total market cap exploding from $200 billion to $3 trillion, creating countless wealth legends. But with the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, the crypto market faced an epic bear market: Bitcoin dropped to $15,000, Ethereum fell to $800, and total market cap shrank by 80%.

One of the most controversial chairs in history, some call him a market savior, while others label him an inflation creator. Although the Powell era has ended, his impact will last for a long time. His monetary policies changed the global economic landscape and altered countless lives.
$SKYAI #BTC跌破$77K

$SKYAI can't have dropped this fast, should we cut our losses, folks?

Oil prices have surged again! Breaking $110 overnight, what exactly happened?

Oil prices are on the rise again, and this isn't just a minor uptick—international oil prices have shot up to a six-month high, with Brent crude futures breaking $110/barrel, a daily increase of over 3.2%. WTI crude climbed to $108.6/barrel, with an accumulated increase of over 8% this week.

Wasn't it just said that the US and Iran were entering talks? Why are oil prices skyrocketing instead?

The most direct impact is that domestic fuel prices will be adjusted on May 6. Based on current trends, gasoline will rise by 215 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.17 yuan per liter for 92 octane and 0.18 yuan per liter for 95 octane. Filling up a 50-liter tank with 92 octane will cost an extra 8.5 yuan compared to last week, while filling up 95 octane will cost an extra 9 yuan. Don't underestimate these few dimes; it adds up to at least several dozen yuan over the month.

Oil price fluctuations are never random; they stem from supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical games. The core reason: the US-Iran situation has escalated, with the Strait of Hormuz potentially facing closure at any moment. Previously, everyone thought that the ceasefire extension would cause oil prices to drop, but the opposite occurred.

While the US claims to have indefinitely extended the ceasefire, it hasn't eased its maritime blockade on Iran; instead, it has deployed two additional aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf. Iran has taken a tougher stance, directly seizing a fourth US cargo ship and declaring that as long as the blockade remains, peace in the strait is impossible. The strait transports 20% of the world's crude oil daily, and the fear is that if Iran truly blocks it, even those with cash won't be able to buy oil.

The Federal Reserve is leaning dovish, and a weaker dollar is pushing oil prices higher. In the early hours, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, with Powell clearly stating that there will definitely be a rate cut this year, causing the dollar index to plummet to a near month-low. Since international crude is priced in dollars, a depreciation of the dollar naturally makes oil more expensive, which is a significant driver for this surge.

Oil prices can't keep rising indefinitely; high prices will suppress demand. The US has already started releasing strategic oil reserves and is pressuring OPEC+ to increase production, which will help cool down oil prices. Friends with cars should consider filling up their tanks before the price adjustment on May 6; every bit saved counts. Don't blindly chase high oil prices; they're already at elevated levels, and geopolitical situations can change rapidly. Chasing highs can easily lead to being trapped. The inflation pressure from rising oil prices will continue to create volatility in crypto prices, so be patient and wait for a correction opportunity—don't rush to catch the bottom.
$BZ $CL #BTC跌破$77K #黄金回撤至$4500附近

Fed's rate decision tonight shake-up $BTC ? The 5-time crash curse reappears?

Is tonight another sleepless night? At 2 AM, the results of the Fed's April rate meeting will be released, with the direction of interest rates and Powell's fate hanging in the balance, both of which will directly impact BTC price action. Will BTC replicate the previous sharp drop tonight? Should we be dollar-cost averaging or going short?

BTC is currently priced around $77,100. Some may recall that from September last year until now, after 5 Fed meetings, BTC has invariably experienced significant drops, ranging from 10%-30%. Therefore, it's understandable that people are concerned about a crash this time. However, considering the current market structure, the situation is different from before!

In simple terms, volatility is likely to be suppressed, making it easier for BTC to oscillate around key levels rather than experiencing a one-sided waterfall drop. The core key level is clear: the 74,700-75,000 dollar range serves as the bull-bear divide and is the lifeline for short-term trading. As long as BTC doesn't breach this range, it will maintain a sideways strong pattern; if it breaks below, further retracement could push it down to the 72,000 or even 70,000 dollar support area.

On the upside, the 80,000-81,500 dollar zone is a strong resistance area. BTC will likely test around 80,000 dollars but will find it hard to break through all at once. It's more probable that it will oscillate and consolidate at this level.
Considering the Fed's rate expectations, maintaining the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% is a done deal. The market is really focused on Powell's position and policy signals. If Powell sends a hawkish signal during the press conference, it may trigger short-term volatility. Conversely, if the signal is dovish, BTC might take the opportunity to push towards 80,000 dollars.

If it retraces to the 75,000-76,000 dollar range, consider scaling in with a small position, placing a stop-loss below 74,700 dollars, targeting 78,000-79,000 dollars. If it hits resistance near 80,000 dollars, consider taking a light short position, setting a stop-loss at 81,500 dollars, targeting 77,000-76,000 dollars. Tonight's rate meeting is a critical juncture.
#Strategy增持比特币 #币安推出黄金vsBTC未来资产对决活动

Can I short the 0.015 USD $TAC ?

The project's pitch is about bringing DeFi to the masses through Telegram as a super traffic gateway. The main uses of TAC are to pay gas fees, stake to protect the network, and participate in governance. The total supply is around 10 billion, with a circulating supply of about 2.9 billion, and a market cap currently at approximately 45 million USD.

In the past 24 hours, it has surged over 20%+, in the last 7 days it has skyrocketed over 100%+, and it has multiplied several times in a month, with trading volume being quite active, significantly higher than usual.

In the short term, it's super bullish; technically, it's showing a "strong buy" signal, having broken through the previous consolidation zone. However, indicators like RSI are already quite high, meaning the price has been climbing a bit too aggressively, and a correction could happen anytime. This rally is mainly driven by the TON + Telegram narrative and the overall altcoin market rebound, with trading volume and social buzz syncing up, representing a typical short-term explosion.

There are both risks and opportunities. If the mainnet progresses well with actual dApp launches and user data looks solid, the price could easily continue to pump; however, given the aggressive rise, the probability of a pullback is significant. The project is still in its early stages, and actual adoption will take time to validate. Team lock-ups unlocking and supply pressure are also potential pitfalls, creating high risk and volatility. Its performance over the past year has seen both ups and downs, so it's not a guaranteed win.

What should I do?
In the short term, it's all about the hype; it's charging hard based on stories and market euphoria, with the potential for further upward movement, but it could also pull back and shake out weak hands at any moment.
#Polymarket否认数据泄露

It's a miracle to hold $CHIP 0.1 bucks till now; this asset seems to be completely wrecked.

$NOM Is this gearing up for another launch?

$XAU Is gold really at its peak and unable to rise any further?

Many people see gold prices recently fluctuating at high levels and think we've hit the ceiling, but that's not the case. It resembles more of a high-level consolidation where bulls and bears are fiercely battling it out. As of now, international gold prices are roughly hovering around $4600/ounce, having dropped significantly from the historical highs of $5500-5600 reached earlier this year, yet still well above last year's levels.

This pullback isn't a trend reversal; it's the result of a short-term quadruple pressure stacking up.

First, geopolitical risks are pushing oil prices higher, directly boosting inflation expectations. The market fears the Fed might need to maintain high interest rates for longer, which diminishes the allure of gold as a non-yielding asset.

Second, elevated oil prices are also supporting the dollar index, and a strong dollar typically suppresses gold prices denominated in dollars.

Third, the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have significantly diminished, shifting from hoping for multiple cuts to possibly just one or even less. The opportunity cost of holding gold has clearly increased, making investors more inclined to place their money in yield-bearing assets.

Fourth, after gold prices surged above $5500 at the beginning of the year, many funds cashed out at high levels, especially around the $4800 mark, leading to price oscillations.

In simple terms, the current gold price isn't 'unable to rise'; it's digesting previous gains and waiting for new catalysts. Bulls have support from continuous central bank purchases and long-term hedging demand;
while bears are capitalizing on short-term negatives like inflation, the dollar, and interest rates.

Overall expectations remain optimistic, with many institutions raising their 2026 median gold price forecast above $4900, and some even seeing a rebound towards $5000-5500 by year-end. For regular investors, don't let short-term fluctuations spook you, and avoid chasing highs or panic selling.
Long-term, gold remains a solid tool for diversifying risk, but the short-term battle between bulls and bears is intense, and volatility will be significant. Geopolitical developments, oil price trends, and the Fed's next moves will be key to whether gold can regain its upward momentum. Stay patient; consolidation often leads to a buildup of energy.
#LayerZero承诺以超1万枚ETH支持DeFiUnited

$DAM said it but you didn't listen, and even when you did, you didn't act

0.049 was publicly called out in the square for you to short, but no one followed 🤣

Good thing you all didn't follow, otherwise you would have really missed out on some serious gains

This easy profit was right there, but you just couldn't handle it.

UAE suddenly flips on OPEC! Trump emerges as the biggest winner, is oil about to crash?

The UAE officially announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending over 50 years of membership. This unexpected move comes against the backdrop of historic energy supply shocks due to the Iran conflict, shaking the global economy and delivering a heavy blow to the organization and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia.

As a long-term core member of OPEC, the UAE has had ongoing disagreements with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and baseline output. With production capacity nearing 5 million barrels per day, the UAE has been constrained by collective agreements. This exit signals that the UAE intends to responsibly ramp up oil production gradually and shift towards a more flexible energy strategy. This could not only lead to chaos within OPEC+ but also further weaken the group’s collective bargaining power and global influence. Despite ongoing divergences in geopolitics and quota allocations, this balance has now been disrupted.

Conflicts related to Iran have severely hampered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting about 20% of global oil shipping routes. The actual production and exports from Gulf countries have significantly declined, causing wild fluctuations in oil prices, and the energy market faces unprecedented supply shortages. In this context, the UAE's choice is seen as a strategic pivot, amplifying OPEC+’s vulnerability.

Trump is viewed as the biggest winner. He has consistently advocated for lower oil prices to reduce costs for American consumers, stimulate economic growth, and support the domestic shale oil industry. He has repeatedly criticized OPEC for manipulating oil prices. If the UAE gradually releases more capacity following its exit, the expected increase in global supply could create downward pressure on oil prices, aligning perfectly with Trump's America First energy policy.

As one of the world's largest oil producers, the U.S. is poised to enhance its relative competitiveness in shale oil production and energy exports amidst a weakening of OPEC+ influence. In the short term, the strait bottleneck and geopolitical conflicts will continue to dominate the market, potentially intensifying oil price volatility;

In the long run, a decline in OPEC+ cohesion could trigger global energy supply instability, posing challenges for major economies, including the U.S. The fundamental factors determining oil market trends will be global demand and production increases from non-OPEC oil producers. Future developments will need close monitoring, along with the actual implementation of production increases.
#ArthurHayes最新演讲 $CL $XAU $BTC

Bitcoin bulls are battling to reclaim $80k, but macro data just threw cold water on the party!

Bitcoin bulls are eager to break back above $80k, but recent macro data isn’t exactly bullish. Right now, BTC is bouncing around the $76,000-$77,000 range, and bulls keep chanting for that $80k comeback.

After all, not long ago, we had several touches near $79k, and the momentum looked decent. On-chain whales have been quietly accumulating, and the BTC supply on exchanges is decreasing, with funding rates leaning negative. The potential for a short squeeze is definitely there. Many traders believe that as long as we hold crucial support, breaking $80k isn’t out of the question.

But the reality is that the latest macro data has doused those hopes with cold water. In March, the US PPI surged to 4.0% year-on-year, hitting a nearly three-year high, with core PPI also showing strength; inflation is proving to be stickier than the market expected. After the Fed's April meeting, it’s highly likely they’ll remain on hold, and expectations for significant rate cuts this year have been sharply dialed back.

Currently, the market has priced the probability of an April rate cut to nearly zero. This isn’t great news for BTC, a high-beta risk asset; a high-rate environment means higher capital costs, slow liquidity expansion, and a suppressed risk appetite. The stock market is feeling the pressure too, with gold and the dollar still playing their safe-haven roles.

Technically, the $76k-$77k range has become the core area for short-term consolidation. The psychological and historical resistance at $80k above, and $73k-$74k is a key support level below. If we can hold here, bulls might have some breathing room; but breaking this level could see us probing deeper support. Overall, the structure hasn’t fully flipped bearish yet; we’re just lacking that one big bullish candlestick to really set the tone.

In summary, bulls are really keen on pushing for $80k; on-chain accumulation and institutional interest provide some backing, but the macro hand hasn’t completely loosened yet. Sticky inflation data and a cautious Fed policy mean the catalysts for a significant bullish run are lacking, and we’re more likely to see high-level consolidation and repeated bottom-testing. For those looking to play, make sure to manage your positions well — don’t expect a breakthrough overnight. Macro data could surprise us with either good or bad news at any moment, and the variables are plentiful.
#Strategy增持比特币 $BTC $ETH $BNB

$DAM Just another easy win, short at 0.049, current price 0.045, think for yourself! #ArthurHayes最新演讲

Are you ready to dive in at 0.18 USD for $APE ?

In the past 24 hours, it's skyrocketed over 35%, with daily trading volume surging to over 300 million USD. The capital activity is off the charts—could this be a prime dip-buying opportunity after a correction, or a harvesting trap after the good news is priced in?

The trading volume has broken through 300 million, showing clear signs of capital inflow, but short-term technicals are diverging: the RSI has pulled back from its recent highs over the past three hours, the MACD bars are gradually narrowing, and buying momentum is waning after the continuous rise. The technicals clearly suggest that a shakeout is likely in the short term, so don’t blindly chase the highs; be wary of getting trapped at these elevated levels.

First thing: This is the core ecosystem token backed by Yuga Labs, serving as the native token for BAYC, Otherside Metaverse, and ApeChain. It’s a benchmark project at the heart of NFT and Web3 ecosystems, driving deep integration of the metaverse, NFTs, and DeFi perpetual ecosystems, boasting over 180,000 holders.

Second thing: The ecosystem and technology are far sturdier than you might think, enabling zero slippage trading across the entire chain. As a governance token, holders can participate in ecosystem decisions through DAO voting and earn yields through staking, balancing trading, governance, and appreciation without switching between different protocols, significantly enhancing trading efficiency and capital security.

Third thing: Recently, a flurry of good news has been released, market sentiment is heating up, and whale capital continues to increase its positions. A certain whale opened a position of 9.19 million APE with 5x leverage, raking in substantial unrealized profits. Coupled with the short squeeze effect from the liquidation of an $82.38 million short position, this further propels the price upward. Additionally, there's no significant token unlock pressure on the horizon, as selling pressure has already been absorbed, and there will be further advancements in cross-chain ecosystem expansion and metaverse scenario implementation.

Key level at 0.16 USD—this is the final line of defense and the strongest short-term support. If it breaks below this, further corrections are highly likely.

For short-term trades, consider entering around 0.175-0.180 USD, targeting 0.20-0.23 USD. If it drops below 0.16 USD, cut losses decisively; don’t hold on stubbornly. As a core token in the NFT space, it’s highly volatile, and the current speculative sentiment is at its peak, with whale positions concentrated. After the good news is realized, it’s easy to see a dump; prudent trading is the way to go!

What’s your cost basis on APE perpetuals? Are you planning to take profits and run with the trend, or are you going to stack more and ride this wave? #币安推出黄金vsBTC未来资产对决活动

0.0108 USD for $TAC , can it pump?

The current price around 0.0108 has left everyone stunned, with the recent action nearly doubling in 7 days and trading volume skyrocketing to $40-50 million. The market cap is only around $32 million, and the bullish trend looks fairly strong. This coin is highly volatile, jumping from 0.003 in early April to now. If you jump in now, are you getting on the train or catching a flying knife? You need to know what's up.

TAC isn’t just a story coin; it’s designed specifically for the TON and Telegram ecosystem as an EVM-compatible Layer 1. The Mini App + DeFi intersection is real, and the mainnet is live. The early TVL shot up to a decent level, so the actual product and ecosystem are not just empty promises. The platform has great liquidity, with a 24-hour trading volume making up a high percentage of the market cap, making it relatively easy to enter and exit.

Although the market cap is still low, the FDV has already surpassed $100 million, and the increasing circulating supply will create some sell pressure. After such a strong short-term pump, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, and a washout or correction could happen at any time.

The critical level is around 0.0090-0.0095; if it can hold this, it might become a short-term battleground for bulls and bears. If it breaks down, we could see further dips, but holding this level could lead to a run towards 0.013-0.015 or even higher.

Suggestions: For short-term traders: you could try a light position around 0.0105-0.0110, with a stop-loss below 0.0090. Target initially for 0.013-0.014. Keep the funding rate reasonable to maintain momentum; if it breaks down, exit decisively—no need to hold through pain.

For mid to long-term: If you're bullish on the TON + Telegram + DeFi direction, averaging in around the current price of 0.0108 could work, especially if it dips back to 0.009 for a more comfortable entry. The first target is 0.015-0.018, and if the ecosystem really takes off, there’s definitely more room to grow, but be prepared for mid-course washouts.

Overall, the 0.0108 level isn't the most thrilling launch point, but it’s not a high position either; it feels more like a watchful window after a consolidation phase. There’s liquidity in the story, but risks are also present. Make sure to manage your positions well in contracts; the crypto market is never short on stories of wealth but also never lacks liquidation events. OpenAI is reportedly working on developing AI smartphones.

$DAM still has some coins to delist, the short I entered this morning is now at 215%, on April 29 at 17:00, Binance is delisting perpetual contracts, yesterday's rebound was already the last gasp, it's time to short, short until tomorrow at 16:00. OpenAI is reportedly developing an AI smartphone.

The $APE 25 has already multiplied tenfold; seems like I overestimated the ability of the whales.

$XAU Can we still buy gold? What's the situation between the US and Iran?

Right now, gold prices are hovering around 4700. Is it still a buy?

Let's talk about gold today:

What's the current status of US-Iran relations? Since the temporary ceasefire mediated by Pakistan in early April, it's been extended several times. Trump recently mentioned an indefinite extension, emphasizing there's no rush to finalize talks while maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports. On Iran's side, they're firmly stating that no discussions will happen until the Strait is fully opened, blaming the US for violating the ceasefire, while denying any internal divisions and stressing that the focus of negotiations has shifted from nuclear issues to a complete cessation of hostilities.

Negotiations have hit a snag, with Trump halting planned talks, stating that Iran's proposed conditions aren't good enough. Iran's foreign minister even went to Russia to complain about US dishonesty. Both sides are still communicating indirectly through intermediaries, but direct progress is slow. The US Navy continues to clear mines in the Strait and intercept suspicious vessels, while Iran controls the flow and collects tolls. The ceasefire is still holding, with oil prices experiencing some fluctuations. Trump is still making headlines: one moment claiming talks will conclude soon, the next saying he doesn't care and letting other nations guard the Strait.

Can we still buy gold? Gold has been significantly influenced by US-Iran news, Fed rate expectations, and the strength of the dollar. Currently, with gold prices around 4700 USD, it looks like a consolidation zone. Long-term, factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, global economic concerns, and central banks buying gold continue to support gold prices. However, in the short term, if there’s a sudden breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, gold prices could test lower; conversely, if new tensions arise or oil prices spike, gold could see a rush.

Short-term: This position looks more like a tug-of-war, neither a solid bottom nor a launch point; light positions for low buys and high sells can be attempted, but set your stop-loss and take-profit levels. Any news shift could cause significant volatility.

Medium to long-term: If you consider gold a safe-haven asset, buying in batches around 4700 isn’t a big issue; wait for clearer developments. The market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with overall risk appetite fluctuating. Stay updated with the latest news; overall, the US-Iran situation is a prolonged ceasefire with no resolution or major escalation. Gold is being tugged in the short term, but avoid chasing highs and panic selling; maintaining a steady mindset is crucial. The market changes rapidly; wishing everyone successful trades!
$PRL $SWARMS #比特币突破7.9万美元

Current price around 0.0082 for $GPS , don’t overthink it, just dive into a short!! Funding rate is slightly positive, bullish sentiment has hit a peak, expect short-term high-level consolidation, volume isn't keeping up with the pump, RSI is nearing mid-high levels, likely to pull back! Stop loss at 0.00866, shorters, get ready.
#Binance is launching a Gold vs BTC future asset showdown event