Ranges are messy and deviations are messy, but that doesn’t invalidate my plan.
If we sweep the current highs (74K), I have a final limit order placed above. My invalidation is a weekly close above 80K, which would invalidate the bearish structure, essentially my soft stop loss.
I’ve also spotted a potential fractal that I’ll be posting shortly. It could play out since we’re currently in a similar time period to that previous structure. Stay tuned.
The Middle East conflict is now directly hitting the global oil supply chain
Overnight, Iranian drones struck oil storage facilities in Fujairah, forcing operations to halt after fires broke out
That port is critical because it sits outside the Strait of Hormuz and was designed as one of the main alternative export routes in the Gulf
Fujairah moves roughly 1,000,000 barrels per day and is the second-largest bunkering hub in the world
The strike came only hours after the U.S. targeted Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil export terminal
Iran had warned earlier that any attack on its energy infrastructure would trigger retaliation against facilities linked to the U.S. or its allies
Then Fujairah was hit
And the escalation may not stop there
Iranian officials have also threatened major ports in the UAE, including Jebel Ali in Dubai and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi, warning residents to stay away from strategic infrastructure
At the same time, regional production is already being disrupted
Earlier this week ADNOC shut down the Ruwais refinery after another drone strike
That facility alone processes about 922,000 barrels per day, removing a major chunk of refining capacity from the market
This is happening while global oil flows are already fragile
The International Energy Agency warned recently that the world could be approaching one of the most severe supply disruptions in modern oil market history
What makes the situation more dangerous is the strategy behind the attacks
Ports like Fujairah and Salalah in Oman were specifically built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and keep exports moving even if the strait became blocked
Now those backup routes are being targeted
Meanwhile the political situation is escalating just as quickly
Iran has signaled it will not negotiate with the United States for now, while Western powers including Germany, France, and the UK have indicated they could become more directly involved in the conflict