The United States faces a significant financial challenge in 2026, with approximately $9 trillion of its total $38 trillion national debt coming due for repayment or refinancing this year. Rolling over such a massive amount of debt will not be easy, particularly at a time when interest rates remain relatively high. At the same time, the U.S. economy is dealing with multiple pressures. The country is heavily engaged in ongoing geopolitical conflicts, oil prices are rising again, and inflation risks are re-emerging. There is also an increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, and broader political and fiscal priorities, while the U.S. dollar is already under pressure in global markets. If the U.S. government is forced to refinance this debt at higher interest rates, the cost of servicing the national debt could rise sharply. This would significantly increase the government’s financial burden and add further strain to fiscal stability. For this reason, our view remains unchanged. Regardless of how much effort is made to suppress or manipulate the market in the short term, gold cannot remain under pressure for long. In the coming weeks, gold is likely to break into new all-time highs and potentially continue setting new records repeatedly. A decline in the value of the U.S. dollar appears increasingly inevitable. However, it is also important to recognize that other global currencies may lose value even more rapidly in the same environment. This process may be delayed temporarily, but it is ultimately difficult to prevent over the long term.
Market Update Following the sharp corrective move from the 5400 area, the market has entered a two-week consolidation phase. Price is currently trading within a defined range between 5075 and 5172, indicating significant liquidity accumulation after the previous impulsive move.
At the moment, the 5196–5200 zone acts as a key structural resistance. A decisive close above this level would likely confirm a range breakout, potentially triggering a bullish expansion and reopening the path toward the H4 supply zone around 5340+.
Short-term strategy: As long as price has not confirmed a breakout, the preferred approach is to continue trading within the established range (5075–5172), taking advantage of reactions at the range highs and lows until the market delivers a clear directional break.
➤ Range: 5075 – 5172 ➤ Break and close above 5196–5200 : Bullish continuation
The market is currently building liquidity, and the eventual breakout could define the next directional move.
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- The 5043–5033 area represents a higher-timeframe demand zone on the H4 chart, where price previously showed a strong bullish reaction and formed an impulsive move, suggesting potential institutional buying interest.
- This zone is positioned near sell-side liquidity, meaning the market may sweep that liquidity before forming a bullish reversal, creating a potential opportunity to look for long positions.