链研社lianyanshe

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🔹 No need to bypass restrictions
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The script for the next Federal Reserve meeting is highly likely to be: Powell will announce a 25bp rate cut, but will emphasize that the road ahead is not smooth and hint that the pace of rate cuts will slow in 2025 (hawkish). Regarding T-bill repurchases/stopping QT, he is very likely to indicate that the time is not yet right.

What does this mean for future market conditions?

U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets: In the short term, there may be a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" pullback pressure, especially if it is a hawkish rate cut situation.

As long as inflation is not out of control, rate cuts will protect jobs; however, in light of fiscal stimulus expectations and sticky inflation, the Federal Reserve must maintain a tough verbal stance and slow the pace of rate cuts next year. The bearish sentiment is relative, and in the short term, it belongs to the category of good news already priced in.

After that, sideways adjustments will replace declines, and a significant crash is unlikely, with little deviation from market expectations.

Insiders all understand that the 'first sister' has always been Binance's 'invisible queen', most knowledgeable about the community, traffic, and marketing. The current dual CEO structure is perfect:

Richard Teng @_RichardTeng is responsible for the 'shield': handling regulations to keep Binance compliant.

He Yi @heyibinance is responsible for the 'spear': focusing on business, driving growth, and maintaining Binance's core community culture.

Many were previously concerned that after CZ's retreat, Binance would falter and gradually fall behind, but those worries were unfounded. Even without CZ, Binance can still break through just like Binance Wallet and Binance Alpha, continuing to innovate at the forefront of the industry. As the clockmaker of Binance, @cz_binance, CZ has ensured that Binance's strong corporate culture continues to be passed down, much like Apple has remained one of the greatest companies in the world even after Steve Jobs left.

Now, the first sister officially steps into the spotlight, which is definitely a long-term positive for BNB and subsequent market actions. Binance will continue to move forward without pause on its path to a billion users.

#BinanceBlockchainWeek

The Binance Blockchain Week is here! Follow DAO @ListaDAO at the venue for their latest DEX products, with DEX yields stacked on lending products + Binance's new token launch yields, the returns are explosive.

As soon as you enter Blockchain Week, you can see surprises to grab, I was the first to get a LaBuBu, so lucky!

A few days of a bull market limited-time experience card is not bad, those who haven't run away can't blame anyone.

Binance has the ability to initiate a new narrative in the racing track, including the focus on trading US stocks after the launch of HYPE's HIP3. In the future, Binance will not be absent from conducting US stock trading on the chain; it won't just be as simple as being able to trade US stocks in the Binance wallet.

All products trading US stocks in the crypto circle are not competitive when placed in traditional US stocks, failing to attract real US stock traders. The comprehensive trading fees for US stocks are around tens of thousands, while the transaction fees for US stocks in the crypto circle are 10 times higher.

The largest audience for on-chain US stocks may not be those who want to trade US stocks. There has always been no shortage of channels, and both Ondo and Xstock have remained lukewarm.

The true audience for on-chain US stocks may be those in the crypto circle who want to gamble on US stock trading. Leverage and gambling are still the biggest demands in the crypto circle and represent the profile of crypto users, which is quite different from US stock trading. The crypto circle's US stocks mainly provide a selection of quality targets, not for value investment but for trading volatility.

In the end, the success of on-chain US stocks will depend on whose product is easier to use, better for betting, and better for gambling.

Compared to US stocks, on-chain stocks are a more perfect gambling tool compared to altcoins:
- 24-hour trading
- Convenient leverage
- No taxes required
- Anonymous trading, weak regulation
- Quality assets that won't go to zero

Recently, it has also been observed that the correct path is being taken. The trading fees for US stocks on HYPE's HIP3 are extremely low, greatly reducing the friction costs of trading. The core is that users just want to gamble and do not care if there are real reserve stocks behind you; as long as you have the ability to fulfill, I am willing to play.

I believe that it will soon surpass Ondo and Xstock. This shows that what is lacking is not the channel for buying US stocks, but a better place to bet.

In terms of upper limits, the top 10 quality companies in the US stock market and the scale of contract positions can be as large as BTC, while the scale of contract positions for the top 100 companies may be comparable to ETH.

Replacing all the gambling tools of original altcoins with US stocks could likely multiply the scale of the crypto circle several times.

AI vs Humanity Round 3
$BTC Can it recover to 90,000 USD this week?

AI @DeAgentAI bets no, humans can bet yes.

In the last human-machine battle, Agents BABA won, and I still believe in AI's judgment.

Coinbase IPO $MON, "Textbook-level plummet"
1. The halo of Coinbase is completely dispelled. It doesn't even have the effect of a token listing, and has long been rubbed into the ground by Robinhood and Binance. Acquiring Deribit is indeed a clever move, but currently, it's hard to see its contribution to the group's profits.

2. The awkwardness of old wine in new bottles. The project has repeatedly postponed its TGE, which is essentially a second monetization of an outdated project. In the absence of core innovation, forcibly issuing tokens is no different from "borrowing a corpse to resurrect the soul."

3. A complete break between the market and VC tokens. The token structure of "high FDV, low circulation" has made retail investors deeply resentful. Retail investors refuse to take over elite tokens that are severely overvalued.

The countdown for the 2025 Binance Blockchain Week has begun, taking place from December 3 to 4 at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. Those who cannot attend in person can still scan to make a reservation to watch the live broadcast at Binance Square. MicroStrategy, Circle, Aster, and CZ will all be speaking on-site.

What I'm most looking forward to is the Blockchain Top 100 Awards segment, where last time CZ and the top influencer personally presented the awards. It’s also a great opportunity to have in-depth exchanges with the Binance team. Binance Square is getting better and better
#BinanceBlockchainWeek

In the current moment of liquidity exhaustion and with Binance futures positions hitting new lows during this deep bear market, Monad, as a star public chain, has been repeatedly delaying its mainnet launch. The timing for aPriori, as the head of the Monad ecosystem, is also inappropriate and has encountered significant crises. However, it has positively responded to the controversies surrounding the airdrop and announced a series of adjustments. We may need to reevaluate the fundamentals and future logic of $APR.

Regarding the controversy over the first quarter airdrop, the core issue lies in rumors of witch attacks. The team recently clarified that no large-scale witch attacks leading to airdrop theft have been discovered. Indeed, a batch of real early contributors received a considerable amount of airdrop, but the community feels relatively poor, mainly because the current market is at an emotional low point. This is not the fault of the airdrop itself; a slight pressure from the current market is enough to cause a collapse.

As a remedy for the airdrop, aPriori has significantly lowered the requirements for unlocking airdrop quotas on the Monad mainnet, allowing those who genuinely wish to accompany the project until the Monad mainnet goes live to receive their rewards. This easing is essentially the greatest respect for genuine retained users. In addition to repairing the rules from the first wave, aPriori has also played a strong card, confirming that after the launch of the Monad mainnet, it will initiate a second wave of airdrops and ecological incentives aimed at the pure Monad community.

By adding airdrops, not only can it soothe community grievances, but it can also directly accommodate the massive traffic when the Monad mainnet launches. It is also a way to prepare "fuel" for the future ecological liquidity competition. Furthermore, all abandoned or unclaimed airdrop quotas will not be retained by the team but will enter a transparent recycling mechanism, feeding back into the Monad ecosystem.

aPriori, positioned as an infrastructure project focused on MEV and liquidity staking, generates real transaction value (MEV) only on the mainnet. This is the foundation of the protocol's revenue, and the technical barriers and stability of the protocol are core. The current $APR is at a typical bottom of the bull-bear game area. After the launch of the Monad mainnet, as the first major project in the Monad ecosystem, the news will serve as a catalyst, creating strong resonance, depending on whether the market gives an opportunity.

aPriori chose to give back during the toughest times and is willing to revise rules to retain users. This kind of pattern is rare in the current crypto circle. If you are still paying attention to the Monad ecosystem, then aPriori is worth a closer look now.

The current U.S. stock market pullback is different from the sharp drop caused by the tariff battle in April. This time, there is no single triggering event; instead, it stems from the AI bubble, which amplifies high unemployment rates, inflationary pressures, and high leverage, along with the possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates, leading to a sharp decline in tech stocks.
Although Nvidia's earnings report exceeded expectations, it failed to quell concerns about the AI bubble. The tech sector in the U.S. stock market led the decline, with institutions rushing to sell. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, publicly stated that there is indeed a bubble in the market. The U.S. stock market is experiencing a short bear and a long bull, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term until performance catches up with the market.

Three Cards to Save the Market
1. Nvidia
2. Federal Reserve
3. Trump
The first card has been played, and the result has dropped even harder. The Federal Reserve is still hawkish, and Trump doesn't know what he's doing.
Who else can save the market?

PDD 2025 Q3 Core Interpretation

The Q3 2025 financial report marks Pinduoduo (PDD) completing the evolution of its business model, achieving negative cost operation. The total revenue growth rate that investors focus on has dropped to +9% for the first time, but the company's true value lies in its strong profitability: the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17% year-on-year, and operating cash flow soared by 66%. This indicates that PDD has evolved from a high-growth traffic-based e-commerce company to a hybrid entity focused on profitability and cash flow.

The emergence of the invisible 'Pinduoduo Bank' reveals a new core of profitability in the financial report: the interest and investment income for this quarter reached 8.5 billion, accounting for nearly one-third of the net profit. This is not simply idle money management, but the ultimate application of its 'OPM' model (Other People's Money). PDD leverages its strong platform position to impose long payment terms on merchants, allowing approximately 100 billion in accounts payable to remain on the platform as interest-free 'float capital,' generating substantial returns through financial management. This negative working capital cycle provides PDD with a very high margin of safety and stable profit support.

Temu's heavy asset breakthrough The significant increase in fulfillment costs in the financial report suggests that Temu is undergoing a strategic shift from a light asset cross-border direct mail (1.0 model) to heavy asset localized fulfillment (2.0 model). In the face of the European and American crackdown on minimum threshold tariff policies, Temu has no choice but to increase its investment in overseas warehousing and local logistics. This Amazon-like approach, although temporarily dragging down operating profit margins and increasing costs, is a ticket to hedge against geopolitical and policy risks, ensuring its long-term survival.

Reconstruction of valuation logic Currently, investing in PDD is no longer just a single e-commerce growth story, but a 'three-in-one' asset portfolio:
- China Costco: Domestic discount e-commerce basic platform, a cash cow that produces stable high cash flow.
- Digital Bank: Stable interest income from float capital, negative capital operation.
- Temu's Amazon-like transformation: High risk, high investment, but a gamble in the overseas market with huge potential.

The cryptocurrency market is recovering, U.S. stocks opened lower (equivalent to a catch-up decline). Recently, it doesn't make much difference where to play, it's just losing money in a different place. I'm very glad that I diversified my investments in U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, because it allows me to lose money in three completely different ways.


Back to the point, the cryptocurrency market is more sensitive to macro trends, and the leading indicators have not continued to decline, it seems that U.S. stocks are likely to stabilize here.


The decline is very alarming, the fear index has already reached 10. The judgment is that the bottom will be seen at the end of November or the beginning of December. Trump's election will find ways to issue some good news, but remember it's a dead cat bounce, don't get too caught up in it, the target for this round of BTC decline is still looking at something starting with 6.

In the past few days of decline, I am very glad that I have diversified my investments into U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, because this allows me to lose money in three completely different ways.