Cato_KT

As it stands, the factors weighing on the market are still centered around inflation. Tonight's inflation surprise has heightened concerns, and this is just the beginning.

If Thursday's retail data meets or even falls short of expectations, we won't just be looking at inflation worries, but also stagnation fears.

Compared to inflation, stagnation can hit economic confidence much harder and is more detrimental to risk markets.

Observing the current state of the financial markets, after tonight's inflation data release, the initial fears have eased slightly; however, the market is still reacting. Gold's rally has once again been suppressed, and bond yields are climbing again, with 30-year Treasuries firmly standing above 5% in the short term, while risk assets are under serious pressure.

The only way to alleviate the current inflation worries is through a confirmed second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran, restoring free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and a significant drop in energy prices. Only then can we expect some optimistic hedging against short-term inflation concerns; otherwise, the market's anxiety about inflation will only grow.

Looking ahead this week, we need to see if Trump's visit to China can bring positive news for the global economy and trade system. Additionally, we need to watch Thursday's consumer data to see if it can dispel stagnation fears. As for Waller's appointment, I believe it's unlikely to change the current inflation concern trend; the inflation issue won't be resolved just because Waller takes office.

As for silver and copper rising against the trend, it's not that they have a certain immunity to inflation; rather, it's the short-term acceleration of AI infrastructure and tight international supply that's giving silver and copper some price support and even upward momentum.

The macro mainline hasn't hit the ground yet, so the short-term CPI data has spiked inflation expectations, only able to temporarily suppress risk market sentiment without completely breaking the current rhythm.

For the risk market, there are still some expectations this week, such as Trump's visit to China, Walsh's inauguration, and the progress of the Clear Act. Of course, there are also bearish factors, like Thursday's retail data.

Looking at #Bitcoin, whether it's a coincidence or not, with macro factors aligning with the charts, BTC is being pressured by the daily MA200, gradually pulling back in a stair-step manner. It seems precarious, but once the bullish sentiment locks in, a breakout could still be possible.

For the charts, if we can break the 81,800 level before Saturday and even hold above it, the upward trend remains intact. If bullish sentiment is locked in but we still can't break through, the rebound could be at risk. At this stage, we need to keep watching for a confirmation of the breakout.

As long as we don't fall below 75,300, we can consider it range-bound, and the trend hasn't broken. If we effectively drop below 75,300, we need to reference a deeper pullback at the daily level. Of course, many people think below 60,000 is likely, but I don't see that possibility for now!

Recording market data, currently, under the fluctuating market cap, BTC's share remains unchanged, while ETH and altcoins are being squeezed out, indicating the market isn't in an optimistic expansion phase.

Trading volume has decreased compared to yesterday. Coupled with the current drop in BTC price, the price retracement hasn't seen an increase in volume, which aligns with the oscillating trend; selling pressure isn't strong, just a normal pullback.

Although total funds have increased by 700 million, it's not a net inflow of mainstream funds. In fact, USDC has seen a net outflow of 370 million. The net inflow of funds from the US market is not a good sign for BTC's rebound.

Today's summary: Inflation data is temporarily suppressing market sentiment, and the short-term still requires patience in the oscillation mode, waiting for further bullish stimuli to see if we can form an effective breakout. Once the bullish sentiment runs out without forming a breakout, we can look for a pullback trend!

Yesterday, I totally forgot an important piece of news about the Senate vote on Waller.

According to the Senate's announcement, the motion was passed yesterday with a vote of 49 to 44, which accelerates the nomination process for Waller.

Next up, there are two more steps before Waller's vote.

The first step is tonight at 23:30, where the final vote and confirmation for Waller to become a Fed governor will take place, and there will also be a motion to end debate on Waller's nomination for Fed Chair.

The second step is that if tonight's vote goes smoothly, Waller will be confirmed for the Fed governor position, but the vote for the Fed Chair position will require one more round, and it hasn't been scheduled yet but should be arranged quickly after tonight's vote!

Fun fact:

To become the Fed Chair, one needs to be a Fed governor, and since Waller was not a governor before his nomination, he has to go through two processes in the Senate: first becoming a governor and then he can aim for the Chair.

April CPI data is out, and nominal CPI year-on-year has exceeded expectations, hitting 3.8%, while the month-on-month aligns with expectations at 0.6%. The core month-on-month and year-on-year figures also surpassed forecasts, indicating that short-term inflation is heating up—this is bad news!

After diving into the details of the CPI data, the worst part isn't the numbers themselves but rather what they reveal: inflation is rising not just due to high energy prices but also from increases in housing, food, and some service sectors. This is a very dangerous signal,

showing that energy inflation pressure is starting to transmit to other sectors, increasing overall service sector inflationary pressures, which is detrimental to rate cut expectations and could even raise rate hike expectations in the short term.

On another note, if May 15th sees Waller stepping in as Fed Chair successfully, Powell's hold, along with this inflation data, could become key factors undermining Waller's policies, severely dampening short-term rate cut expectations.

With inflation expectations rising, this is bullish for the dollar, bearish for U.S. Treasuries, gold, and risk markets. However, based on the current situation, post-data release, gold has actually seen a slight rebound, and long bond yields have slightly decreased, suggesting that the financial markets had already priced in this inflation data beforehand.

Currently, caution is warranted in risk markets; other financial markets seem to have priced it in already, and the inflation data release has led to a rebound. We will have to wait and see how U.S. stocks react at the open. As of pre-market, U.S. stock declines have narrowed, but tech stocks are noticeably under pressure.

Meanwhile, as the leading indicator in U.S. stocks, #Bitcoin also experienced a rebound following the inflation data. This trend might suggest that U.S. stocks will initially see a small bounce at the open, and then we need to monitor how the data ferments and how various media interpret it, along with how risk markets price it in!

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As of now, the US-Iran situation isn't looking good, and we can only bet that a breakthrough will come after Trump’s visit to China. In the absence of any change in the US-Iran scenario, if tonight’s April CPI meets expectations, we can definitely expect a spike in inflation fears in the short term.

Especially with oil prices bouncing back again, long-term US bonds are returning to 5%, and gold is feeling the pressure and pulling back. This means the financial market has started to price in tonight's inflation surge ahead of time.

For risk markets, an increase in inflation expectations puts pressure on them, and US stocks and #Bitcoin are no exceptions. The actual pressure situation will depend on the detailed data released later!

The financial market is particularly sensitive to long bonds, which are linked to inflation expectations, while short bonds are tied to rate cut expectations. Gold is sensitive to both inflation and interest rate expectations.

#CRCL Since the short-term volatility following last night's earnings report to the subsequent significant surge, the foundation lies in the stable and excellent earnings report, with growth momentum coming from the hype around public chain narratives that have caught the market's attention.

From the earnings report, CRCL's business logic and strategic plan for AI payments are very clear and well-structured. There are potential risks, but they are not immediate threats in the short term.

The public chain Arc is expected to launch its mainnet in 2026 and has announced substantial investments from both crypto and traditional institutions, fueling market optimism and buying pressure.

For those itching to chase the short-term price surge, be aware that there are potential macro positive indicators this week, such as Trump's visit to China and the developments in the US-Iran situation, combined with the earnings report and public chain narratives driving prices up. We're currently in a hot phase for the stock price, so if you're buying now, ask yourself if you can handle the potential drawdown next week or later?

If not, it might be better to wait it out and let things cool down a bit. Right now, CRCL is up in pre-market trading, but the short-term hype is too high, so the market needs to chill a bit before making any moves!

The hushed-up news could be one of the factors contributing to the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, as well as a potential flashpoint between the US and Iran.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE secretly launched an attack on Iran in early April, damaging oil refineries. This news hasn't been officially confirmed yet, and it might never get that stamp of approval.

From this perspective, Iran's repeated attacks on the UAE aren't without reason. While the friction between the two hasn't escalated further, it's a very dangerous signal, indicating that the current situation in the Middle East is shifting from external conflicts involving Gulf states to internal tensions and conflicts within those states.

At this moment, the situation hasn't fully developed, and the US-Iran relations remain in a phase of hardline posturing. Based on the current conditions, a turning point in US-Iran relations might have to wait until Trump visits China. It seems that this week, regional mediating countries haven't taken any action, likely waiting for signals following Trump's trip!

PS: Just a side note, the Wall Street Journal is currently under investigation by the US Department of Justice for "leaking details about the Iran war" and has already received a subpoena!

Forgive me for not being in the loop, it took me two days after Mother's Day to figure out what the "two husbands" meme was all about!

Ah, another marketing disaster from a big player (OPPO), and this incident reminds us that sometimes the real competition isn’t from rivals, but from within our own ranks 😂😂😂

But credit where it’s due, they did a solid job of shifting the blame internally, as soon as things went south they started recruiting a crisis PR head with a salary of 1.5 million and 2.8 million in equity 🫪🫪🫪

Historical experience has led the Korean government to be less blindly optimistic. Beyond the significant pump in the Korean stock market, there's an accompanying widening wealth gap and a bubble economy. If the global financial markets hit a snag, capital flight could send the stock market crashing, directly impacting the economy.

Especially in light of Hynix's stellar profits and the buzz around corporate dividends, political pressure on the government has ramped up.

Thus, Korea is trying to leverage the 'redistribution of AI dividends' to ease the wealth gap, while also attempting to slow down the bubble growth of the Korean stock market, all while testing the 'socialization of AI dividends' route.

The ideal is lush, but reality is indeed stark. Capital isn't buying it; in the short term, the Korean stock market has been wildly volatile with a 5.1% swing, just 2.8% shy of the 8% circuit breaker mechanism. Clearly, pursuing the socialization of AI dividends isn't as straightforward as it seems; it's overly idealistic. The Korean government now finds itself in a catch-22 situation!

Trump's visit to China featured a lineup of businesses and their heads, continuing the trading-focused business delegation model from 2017.

From the roster, this visit includes big players from tech, finance, and manufacturing, indicating a lot on the table for discussion. Notably, Nvidia's CEO, Huang, is missing from the delegation.

Mainstream media suggests that the focus of this visit is primarily on agricultural and aerospace chips, rather than tech AI chips, implying that Huang was not invited.

This reasoning seems a bit weak, especially considering Nvidia's leading position in the US AI market and Huang's personal influence—his importance might make Trump hesitant to bring him along!

Currently, U.S. treasury yields for both short and long bonds are skyrocketing again, with the 30-year yield nearing that critical 5% level. The main driver is the stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which are happening alongside a rebound in oil prices.
However, it’s clear that even though the U.S.-Iran situation isn’t looking too bright, the rhetoric from both sides has become significantly more cautious compared to before. This suggests we're close to a breakthrough in talks; being overly aggressive could push the situation back to a stalemate, and both parties seem to have a certain political understanding on this.
Year-on-year, the rebound in oil prices isn't aligning with treasury yields; the bond market is seeing a more pronounced increase. Besides the U.S.-Iran situation, there's also tomorrow's April CPI inflation expectations on the horizon, which has the bond yields jumping ahead of the worst-case scenarios.
Following the current logic, if there isn't any better progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations before the CPI release tomorrow night, the financial markets will temporarily revert to inflation logic. Risk markets will feel the pressure, gold's short-term rise will be stalled, and bond yields will likely continue to climb. The key will be whether the April CPI meets expectations, along with the developments in U.S.-Iran talks.

Currently, #Bitcoin's trend is following my less-than-optimistic expectations from yesterday, and the core issue is that the US-Iran situation remains unresolved.

Although the 'diplomatic factors' among the macro elements this week are confirmed, it’s clear that they still lack the bullish momentum needed for the crypto market. BTC continues to rely on the inflationary pressures brought on by the US-Iran dynamics and the upcoming crypto legislation on Thursday.

Today, the BTC price faced resistance at the daily MA200 and pulled back. This is an important observation point for the week. The MA200 trend line is descending, and if the frequent macro positives fail to bring a breakout, the trend of weakening momentum and pullback will need to be confirmed gradually.

If we see a rebound fueled by positive news and a breakout that holds above the MA200, we can look forward to testing 84,500 and the key resistance around 85,300.

Comparing market data to Sunday, the increase in market capitalization is mainly concentrated in BTC, while ETH and altcoins remain relatively cautious. As it’s the first trading day of the week, trading volume has recovered nicely, and the market activity has clearly increased under the stimulus of major macro events this week.

Total capital has decreased by 200 million, with a net outflow of 300 million from USDC, which isn't great for BTC as it attempts to break out.

Next, this week we’ll focus on whether we can break and hold the key resistance under the influence of positive news, the release of trading volume, and the stability after turnover.

Right now, the macro side is really worried about the US-Iran negotiation issue. If this problem isn’t resolved, inflation fears will keep weighing on the global economy as a potential risk.

Plus, this week we have the April CPI and April retail figures coming out, which are expected to show rising inflation but declining retail. If the data meets expectations, concerns about stagflation might resurface in the short term. So, whether the US-Iran talks kick off smoothly is crucial for this week.

In my personal view, the expectations for the second round of US-Iran negotiations are still optimistic. Both sides currently have a tough stance, but in practice, they’ve softened up. Compared to their earlier statements, there’s clearly less hostility, and they’re just expressing dissatisfaction, indicating that the situation is easing.

Optimistically, before Trump’s visit to China, both the US and Iran might find a win-win angle that facilitates the second round of talks and establishes a general timeline.

On the flip side, if the negotiations happen after Trump’s visit, he might exchange certain conditions during his stay in China for mediation, leading to a turning point for US-Iran talks after the visit, and securing a negotiation timeline.

In both scenarios, the outcomes are largely positive, but the difference lies in whether the market will bear short-term pressure or release optimistic sentiments.

Overall, while I’m personally optimistic about the smooth progression of the second round of US-Iran talks, I believe it will be quite hard to reach a complete peace agreement in the short term. I expect a longer timeframe for mediation and communication.

However, the second round of talks will likely prevent the Strait of Hormuz from becoming a bargaining chip, allowing for smooth navigation. Once the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war state, the macro market's focus on Middle Eastern geopolitics will significantly decrease!

In simple terms, the financial market is not as concerned about whether the US and Iran can successfully negotiate peace, but rather when the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions. Without the Strait of Hormuz as a constraint and considering the lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, the market's sensitivity to geopolitical conflicts isn't that high!

In January 2024, #Bitcoin ETF officially gets the green light!

On May 29, 2026, CME will start transitioning its platform for crypto futures/options to 7 ✖️ 24-hour trading!

On May 14, 2026, the crypto 'Clarity Act' will be voted on in the Senate, pushing progress forward!

The trends of the crypto era clearly tell us that crypto has shifted from wild growth to a long-term development phase, especially as it merges with the trends in traditional international financial markets.

Fellow traders, it’s time to adjust our perspective—from solely focusing on the internal narratives of crypto to adopting a broader, cyclical, and macro perspective on the crypto market. As a result, the influence of macro factors on the crypto market is becoming increasingly apparent!

The first step in adjusting our views and macro perspective is to bridge the information gap between retail traders and top institutional capital. Shift from listening to 'how the media reports what institutions say' to 'how institutions themselves are speaking'; this is crucial.

Any media or individual's interpretation will always carry some subjective bias, and I’m no exception. So, if you want to grow, you need to learn to 'hear it for yourself,' educate yourself, and then validate your thoughts through other media or individuals. Transition from just listening to listening + learning + dialectics = the emergence of self-logic.

When the market is tough, it's time to learn, position yourself early, and enhance your understanding to lay the groundwork for future opportunities. Binance Online is a great learning portal provided by @binancezh for you guys.

Covering three circles: TradFi institutions, crypto natives, and public chain infrastructure, allowing retail traders to hear crucial insights that were previously only available in closed-door meetings.

According to the management, the first session is bound to have the highest value. I checked the lineup; the first session will be held on May 13, featuring heavyweight guests: the CEO of BlackRock, the CEO of Ripple, and the chairman of the SOL Foundation. I hope you guys don’t miss out; there are no barriers to watching the live stream—just register to watch! #Binance

Two pieces of news, one good and one bad, reflect the current macro trends:

On the diplomatic front, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has officially confirmed Trump's visit to China. This is bullish for Trump's midterm elections, the Asia-Pacific situation, U.S.-China risk markets, and easing international trade tensions. Trump's visit is crucial, representing a win-win opportunity for both sides.

Geopolitically, both Trump and Iran have expressed dissatisfaction with the bilateral proposals, leading to a stall in the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations. This has increased geopolitical risks, likely causing a short-term rebound in energy prices.

However, the discontent from both sides remains at the level of rhetoric, and actual actions have not yet escalated tensions.

At this juncture, countries like Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar need to continue mediating to bring both sides back to the negotiating table.

Today marks the last day of the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. If the ceasefire holds well, Putin might assist in mediating between the U.S. and Iran. It will depend on whether Trump chooses to 'sacrifice Zelensky for Putin's help in negotiating with Iran.'

Regarding the current attitudes of the U.S. and Iran towards the proposals, I believe the key issue is that they haven't found a mutually beneficial 'narrative' to present to the public, which is very important. However, I still hold an optimistic view on the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations!

After holding back, Trump finally spoke over the weekend, expressing dissatisfaction with Iran's response. This makes sense, but it doesn't mean that US-Iran negotiations can't proceed smoothly. Trump's current stance represents just his personal opinion, likely aimed at his domestic supporters. The real focus should be on the official announcements from the White House. While Trump may vent his frustrations, his time is limited. If there's no progress on the Iran issue, it feels like talks with China might not go as smoothly!

US media is already primed to pump, confirming Trump's arrival in Beijing on Wednesday night. The reports detail the agenda between the two heads of state, focusing on trade, energy, agriculture, aerospace, and rare earth issues. On the flip side, a key point mentioned is that the discussions may touch on China's support for Russia and Iran, aligning with the main critical issues currently between China and the US. However, these details are sourced from the media and have not been officially confirmed by the US government, nor have they been verified by China. We'll need to hold our horses and wait for official validation tomorrow. Moreover, based on previous discussions, the agenda likely won't be finalized before the US-China delegations meet in South Korea.