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Diary of a Madman fx | crypto
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Here's how the S&P 500 index ($SPY) performed each full year since 1994:
1994: +0.4%🟢
1995: +38.1%🟢
1996: +22.5%🟢
1997: +33.5%🟢
1998: +28.7%🟢
1999: +20.4%🟢
2000: -9.7%🔴
2001: -11.8%🔴
2002: -21.6%🔴
2003: +28.2%🟢
2004: +10.7%🟢
2005: +4.8%🟢
2006: +15.9%🟢
2007: +5.1%🟢
2008: -36.8%🔴
2009: +26.4%🟢
2010: +15.1%🟢
2011: +1.9%🟢
2012: +16%🟢
2013: +32.3%🟢
2014: +13.5%🟢
2015: +1.3%🟢
2016: +12%🟢
2017: +21.7%🟢
2018: -4.6%🔴
2019: +31.2%🟢
2020: +18.4%🟢
2021: +28.8%🟢
2022: -18.2%🔴
2023: +26.2%🟢
2024: +24.9%🟢
2025: +17.7%🟢
2026*: +5%🟢
1994: +0.4%🟢
1995: +38.1%🟢
1996: +22.5%🟢
1997: +33.5%🟢
1998: +28.7%🟢
1999: +20.4%🟢
2000: -9.7%🔴
2001: -11.8%🔴
2002: -21.6%🔴
2003: +28.2%🟢
2004: +10.7%🟢
2005: +4.8%🟢
2006: +15.9%🟢
2007: +5.1%🟢
2008: -36.8%🔴
2009: +26.4%🟢
2010: +15.1%🟢
2011: +1.9%🟢
2012: +16%🟢
2013: +32.3%🟢
2014: +13.5%🟢
2015: +1.3%🟢
2016: +12%🟢
2017: +21.7%🟢
2018: -4.6%🔴
2019: +31.2%🟢
2020: +18.4%🟢
2021: +28.8%🟢
2022: -18.2%🔴
2023: +26.2%🟢
2024: +24.9%🟢
2025: +17.7%🟢
2026*: +5%🟢
🚨FOUND SATOSHI? FILM NAMES NAMES
"Finding Satoshi" claims: the creators of Bitcoin are Hal Finney and Len Sassaman.
4 years of investigation. NYT bestselling author + a team of detectives.
Why Finney and Sassaman?
🔹Analysis of "digital rhythms": Satoshi's activity aligns ONLY with them
🔹Finney — the first BTC recipient. Colleagues: "He intentionally used C++ to cover his tracks"
🔹Sassaman — an academic, a master of whitepapers. Lived in Europe (explains the British spelling)
🔹Both worked at PGP, were friends. Both suffered from serious illnesses. Sassaman took his own life in July 2011 — six months after Satoshi's last post
What do their loved ones say?
Fran Finney (widow): "Yes, Hal helped create the code".
Meredith Patterson (Sassaman's widow): "Len could have helped Hal and not told me".
Bram Cohen (creator of BitTorrent): "They both published anonymously. This aligns with what we know about Satoshi".
Coinbase CEO: "I suspect you've come to the right conclusion".
SUMMARY:
No proof. But this is one of the most convincing investigations. Finney (code) + Sassaman (whitepaper and style).
The film was released on April 22.
#satoshiNakamato #Satoshi
"Finding Satoshi" claims: the creators of Bitcoin are Hal Finney and Len Sassaman.
4 years of investigation. NYT bestselling author + a team of detectives.
Why Finney and Sassaman?
🔹Analysis of "digital rhythms": Satoshi's activity aligns ONLY with them
🔹Finney — the first BTC recipient. Colleagues: "He intentionally used C++ to cover his tracks"
🔹Sassaman — an academic, a master of whitepapers. Lived in Europe (explains the British spelling)
🔹Both worked at PGP, were friends. Both suffered from serious illnesses. Sassaman took his own life in July 2011 — six months after Satoshi's last post
What do their loved ones say?
Fran Finney (widow): "Yes, Hal helped create the code".
Meredith Patterson (Sassaman's widow): "Len could have helped Hal and not told me".
Bram Cohen (creator of BitTorrent): "They both published anonymously. This aligns with what we know about Satoshi".
Coinbase CEO: "I suspect you've come to the right conclusion".
SUMMARY:
No proof. But this is one of the most convincing investigations. Finney (code) + Sassaman (whitepaper and style).
The film was released on April 22.
#satoshiNakamato #Satoshi
🚨
$BTC skyrocketed above $78,000 even after the shooting incident at the dinner in Washington
After reports of a third assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the dinner in Washington, BTC surpassed the $78,000 mark. Traders are now eyeing the key resistance level at $80,000.
$BTC skyrocketed above $78,000 even after the shooting incident at the dinner in Washington
After reports of a third assassination attempt on Donald Trump at the dinner in Washington, BTC surpassed the $78,000 mark. Traders are now eyeing the key resistance level at $80,000.
🚨22 YEARS, 70 MONTHS: CRYPTO SYNDICATE AT $263 MILLION
Evan Tangeman (California, 22 years old) received 70 months in prison + 3 years of supervision. He laundered at least $3.5 million in stolen crypto.
How did the scheme work?
The syndicate operated from October 2023 to May 2025, stealing ~$263 million:
🔸Social engineering — calls pretending to be from exchange support and Google
🔸Home thefts — physical access to hardware wallets
🔸Database hackers, organizers, spotters
The biggest hit — August 2024. A victim in Washington lost 4100+ BTC.
Who is Tangeman?
Aliases: "E", "Tate", "Evan|Exchanger". Converted crypto to cash. Rented luxury homes under fake names — $40–80k/month. He was found with a Rolls-Royce Ghost and a Porsche GT3 RS. Lam (an accomplice) bought him a Lamborghini Urus.
After the arrests of his associates, he destroyed evidence.
Prosecutor's statement:
"The operation was built on greed bordering on cartoonish." Nightclubs, Lamborghinis, Rolexes — at the expense of victims.
Context:
Tangeman is the ninth to plead guilty. The case began with the arrests of Lam and Serrano (September 2024), tracked down by ZachXBT.
RESULT:
70 months for laundering $3.5 million. Syndicate — $263 million. 22 years and prison. The path from crypto to cash is tightening.
Was the game worth the candle? Ask the guy with the Rolls-Royce who will spend the next 6 years behind bars.
Evan Tangeman (California, 22 years old) received 70 months in prison + 3 years of supervision. He laundered at least $3.5 million in stolen crypto.
How did the scheme work?
The syndicate operated from October 2023 to May 2025, stealing ~$263 million:
🔸Social engineering — calls pretending to be from exchange support and Google
🔸Home thefts — physical access to hardware wallets
🔸Database hackers, organizers, spotters
The biggest hit — August 2024. A victim in Washington lost 4100+ BTC.
Who is Tangeman?
Aliases: "E", "Tate", "Evan|Exchanger". Converted crypto to cash. Rented luxury homes under fake names — $40–80k/month. He was found with a Rolls-Royce Ghost and a Porsche GT3 RS. Lam (an accomplice) bought him a Lamborghini Urus.
After the arrests of his associates, he destroyed evidence.
Prosecutor's statement:
"The operation was built on greed bordering on cartoonish." Nightclubs, Lamborghinis, Rolexes — at the expense of victims.
Context:
Tangeman is the ninth to plead guilty. The case began with the arrests of Lam and Serrano (September 2024), tracked down by ZachXBT.
RESULT:
70 months for laundering $3.5 million. Syndicate — $263 million. 22 years and prison. The path from crypto to cash is tightening.
Was the game worth the candle? Ask the guy with the Rolls-Royce who will spend the next 6 years behind bars.
Since January 2024, there have been only 9 instances of fund outflows from Bitcoin ETFs each month. $BTC
🚨 LITECOIN MAKES HISTORY: FIRST ATTACK ON MWEB
3 hours wiped. 13 blocks rewritten.
What happened?
Bad actors exploited a zero-day vulnerability in MWEB — the private layer of Litecoin. The bug allowed nodes running outdated software to validate INVALID transactions. They minted LTC from the private sidechain to the main chain and sent it for cross-chain swaps. Plus, a DDoS attack on mining pools.
What did Litecoin do?
The foundation executed a reorg spanning 13 blocks. Invalid transactions were wiped from history. Valid ones were preserved. The bug was paid off.
Numbers and consequences:
🔴 NEAR Intents exposure — about $600,000
🔴 Double spends against protocols that accepted invalid MWEB peg-outs
🔴 LTC ~$56, -1% on the news. Down 25% since the beginning of the year
Context 2026:
This is the first known attack on MWEB since its activation (May 2022).
By mid-April, DeFi had lost over $750 million due to exploits:
🔸 Kelp DAO bridge: $292 million
🔸 Drift (Solana): $285 million
Most through cross-chain infrastructure, the same vector as Litecoin.
Question:
If Litecoin can rewrite 3 hours of history at the foundation's decision — how decentralized is it? What would stop them from doing the same with 30 blocks?
SUMMARY:
The bug was paid off. Double spends are wiped on paper, but the losses to protocols are real.
$LTC
3 hours wiped. 13 blocks rewritten.
What happened?
Bad actors exploited a zero-day vulnerability in MWEB — the private layer of Litecoin. The bug allowed nodes running outdated software to validate INVALID transactions. They minted LTC from the private sidechain to the main chain and sent it for cross-chain swaps. Plus, a DDoS attack on mining pools.
What did Litecoin do?
The foundation executed a reorg spanning 13 blocks. Invalid transactions were wiped from history. Valid ones were preserved. The bug was paid off.
Numbers and consequences:
🔴 NEAR Intents exposure — about $600,000
🔴 Double spends against protocols that accepted invalid MWEB peg-outs
🔴 LTC ~$56, -1% on the news. Down 25% since the beginning of the year
Context 2026:
This is the first known attack on MWEB since its activation (May 2022).
By mid-April, DeFi had lost over $750 million due to exploits:
🔸 Kelp DAO bridge: $292 million
🔸 Drift (Solana): $285 million
Most through cross-chain infrastructure, the same vector as Litecoin.
Question:
If Litecoin can rewrite 3 hours of history at the foundation's decision — how decentralized is it? What would stop them from doing the same with 30 blocks?
SUMMARY:
The bug was paid off. Double spends are wiped on paper, but the losses to protocols are real.
$LTC
Gold is gearing up for a dip❓
The market structure remains the same — downtrend.
The fourth wave was a prolonged correction, lasting about a month, within an ascending channel.
Right now, we’re seeing a breakdown of the channel 🔻
This is a signal that the correction might be wrapping up and we could transition into the next wave down.
Trade idea:
consider shorting, with a tight stop just above the local highs.
If an impulse kicks in — the move could be strong 🚀
The market structure remains the same — downtrend.
The fourth wave was a prolonged correction, lasting about a month, within an ascending channel.
Right now, we’re seeing a breakdown of the channel 🔻
This is a signal that the correction might be wrapping up and we could transition into the next wave down.
Trade idea:
consider shorting, with a tight stop just above the local highs.
If an impulse kicks in — the move could be strong 🚀
• Wave 1 sets the trend,
• Wave 3 extends it powerfully (never the shortest),
• Wave 5 wraps it up.
• Wave 2 can't drop below the start of Wave 1,
• Wave 4 stays above the peak of Wave 1.
• Wave 3 extends it powerfully (never the shortest),
• Wave 5 wraps it up.
• Wave 2 can't drop below the start of Wave 1,
• Wave 4 stays above the peak of Wave 1.
FOMC, back in the day those were game changers, huh? Now the market only reacts to Trump's hot takes.
alone.
The Fed is expected to pump $5 billion into the markets over the next few days.
$DOT
Limit order - 1.260
Stop loss - 1.327
Take profit - 1.101
The price is moving in a short market structure after interacting with the Fair Value Gap. On the weekly timeframe, the price has faced rejection multiple times, indicating the strength of sellers and the weakness of buyers.
On the daily timeframe, the price has established a short market structure and balanced the last trading range.
Limit order - 1.260
Stop loss - 1.327
Take profit - 1.101
The price is moving in a short market structure after interacting with the Fair Value Gap. On the weekly timeframe, the price has faced rejection multiple times, indicating the strength of sellers and the weakness of buyers.
On the daily timeframe, the price has established a short market structure and balanced the last trading range.
The housing market in the US has hit the highest level of unaffordability in history.
What does this mean in simple terms?
It's harder than ever for Americans to buy a home. Even worse than before the mortgage crisis in 2008.
What contributes to this unaffordability?
The formula is simple: home prices + mortgage rates vs. income.
🔹 Prices: have surged by 40-50% since 2020. Building new homes is expensive, and supply is tight.
🔹 Mortgage rates: have jumped from 3% to 7-8%. Payments for the same home have doubled.
🔹 Income: is rising, but WAY slower than prices and rates.
A number for perspective:
In 2020, a family with average income spent about 25% of their salary on a mortgage. Today—it's 40-45%. Banks consider "comfortable" levels to be 28-30%.
Why does this matter for crypto and the economy as a whole?
Consumer demand will plummet—people are putting off buying homes and are cutting back on spending for everything else (cars, tech, leisure). The economy is slowing down.
Rent is skyrocketing—those who can't buy are forced to rent. Rising rents = even less disposable income.
Recession is looming—housing is one of the main drivers of the American economy. Its cooling effect drags everything down.
For Bitcoin, there's a double whammy—during a crisis, BTC often tumbles along with risky assets (not good).
What does this mean in simple terms?
It's harder than ever for Americans to buy a home. Even worse than before the mortgage crisis in 2008.
What contributes to this unaffordability?
The formula is simple: home prices + mortgage rates vs. income.
🔹 Prices: have surged by 40-50% since 2020. Building new homes is expensive, and supply is tight.
🔹 Mortgage rates: have jumped from 3% to 7-8%. Payments for the same home have doubled.
🔹 Income: is rising, but WAY slower than prices and rates.
A number for perspective:
In 2020, a family with average income spent about 25% of their salary on a mortgage. Today—it's 40-45%. Banks consider "comfortable" levels to be 28-30%.
Why does this matter for crypto and the economy as a whole?
Consumer demand will plummet—people are putting off buying homes and are cutting back on spending for everything else (cars, tech, leisure). The economy is slowing down.
Rent is skyrocketing—those who can't buy are forced to rent. Rising rents = even less disposable income.
Recession is looming—housing is one of the main drivers of the American economy. Its cooling effect drags everything down.
For Bitcoin, there's a double whammy—during a crisis, BTC often tumbles along with risky assets (not good).
🚨FIRST REAL STEP TOWARDS THE END OF PROTECTION $BTC
Project Eleven paid out 1 BTC for a quantum attack on ECC.
What is ECC in simple terms?
It's a mathematical lock that protects your coins. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and $2.5 trillion in assets use ECC to ensure no one can steal the private key from the public key.
What happened?
Researcher Giancarlo Lelli cracked a 15-bit ECC key on a PUBLIC quantum computer. The previous demonstration was 6 bits. That's a 512-fold leap.
The attack was on cloud hardware. No national lab involved. Just a guy with a laptop and access to the cloud.
Why is this scary?
Shor's algorithm breaks the very math (ECDLP) that prevents calculating the private key. Bitcoin uses 256-bit keys. Today, they cracked 15 bits.
Estimates are declining:
Google in April 2026: a full attack on 256-bit BTC will require less than 500,000 qubits.
Caltech + Oratomic: only 10,000 qubits in a new architecture.
The gap from 15 to 256 bits is still massive. But experts consider it an engineering challenge, not a fundamental problem.
The number that sends chills down your spine:
6.9 million BTC sit in wallets with publicly visible keys. They are vulnerable RIGHT NOW to quantum attacks. All blockchains on ECC are in the same boat.
I would appreciate a 👍
Project Eleven paid out 1 BTC for a quantum attack on ECC.
What is ECC in simple terms?
It's a mathematical lock that protects your coins. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and $2.5 trillion in assets use ECC to ensure no one can steal the private key from the public key.
What happened?
Researcher Giancarlo Lelli cracked a 15-bit ECC key on a PUBLIC quantum computer. The previous demonstration was 6 bits. That's a 512-fold leap.
The attack was on cloud hardware. No national lab involved. Just a guy with a laptop and access to the cloud.
Why is this scary?
Shor's algorithm breaks the very math (ECDLP) that prevents calculating the private key. Bitcoin uses 256-bit keys. Today, they cracked 15 bits.
Estimates are declining:
Google in April 2026: a full attack on 256-bit BTC will require less than 500,000 qubits.
Caltech + Oratomic: only 10,000 qubits in a new architecture.
The gap from 15 to 256 bits is still massive. But experts consider it an engineering challenge, not a fundamental problem.
The number that sends chills down your spine:
6.9 million BTC sit in wallets with publicly visible keys. They are vulnerable RIGHT NOW to quantum attacks. All blockchains on ECC are in the same boat.
I would appreciate a 👍
If it's not too much trouble, please share in the comments what posts you read most often and what you're most interested in?
1. Analytics
2. Signals
3. News
4. or some other option.
I’d appreciate the feedback; I just want to understand where to focus to be as helpful as possible. Thanks 🙏
1. Analytics
2. Signals
3. News
4. or some other option.
I’d appreciate the feedback; I just want to understand where to focus to be as helpful as possible. Thanks 🙏
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