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专注于二级市场研究，善于山寨底部布局；交流经验（公众昊同名：crypto九笙）关注以了解crypto货币的一切 | 所有观点/推文均为个人观点，并非财务建议.始终 DYOR（自行研究）
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crypto8sdu
crypto8sdu
The market's been quiet for 3 days now, and this kind of "silence" is usually a precursor to a big movement. When everyone’s uncertain about the direction, the simplest logic often proves to be the most effective:
If the whales want to make a move, hanging around the 81k level for too long is pretty inefficient.
If they want to pump, doing it violently before the retail traders even catch on (50 neutral) is the way to go; it’s the lowest cost and most impactful strategy.
Right now, the strategy isn’t about predicting the direction, but rather observing who makes the first move. Recently, the unusual activity in DeFi leaders like Uni is often a leading indicator before Bitcoin makes its official breakout. $BTC
If the whales want to make a move, hanging around the 81k level for too long is pretty inefficient.
If they want to pump, doing it violently before the retail traders even catch on (50 neutral) is the way to go; it’s the lowest cost and most impactful strategy.
Right now, the strategy isn’t about predicting the direction, but rather observing who makes the first move. Recently, the unusual activity in DeFi leaders like Uni is often a leading indicator before Bitcoin makes its official breakout. $BTC
Goal achieved! $IRYS peaked at a 150% gain!
Took profits and gearing up for the next round!
If you haven't jumped on yet, no worries, a new bull run signal has already popped up. If you want to stay in the loop, drop a "1" in the comments, and I'll help you kickstart this week's wealth mode.
👇👇👇
crypto8sdu
Took profits and gearing up for the next round!
If you haven't jumped on yet, no worries, a new bull run signal has already popped up. If you want to stay in the loop, drop a "1" in the comments, and I'll help you kickstart this week's wealth mode.
👇👇👇
crypto8sdu
BTC Small timeframes still facing resistance
Big Daddy is starting to whip around at the highs, liquidating some leverage positions. This small timeframe has been poking at it a few times, indicating that a direction is about to emerge.
On the downside, keep an eye on whether it breaks the level support line, while the upside is facing pressure from the recent high points! $BTC
#BTC
Big Daddy is starting to whip around at the highs, liquidating some leverage positions. This small timeframe has been poking at it a few times, indicating that a direction is about to emerge.
On the downside, keep an eye on whether it breaks the level support line, while the upside is facing pressure from the recent high points! $BTC
#BTC
Thursday Showdown Eve: Banks Unite Against Stablecoins, Wall Street Sparks Crypto 'Price War'丨5/12
1⃣ The American Bankers Association has sent a letter to major banks, urging them to lobby senators to tighten stablecoin reward clauses before Thursday's committee vote, warning that existing draft loopholes could lead to massive deposit outflows.
2⃣ Roaring Kitty posted and then quickly deleted tweets related to RKC, causing the price of RKC to plummet 90%, while project developers had previously cashed out around $611,000.
3⃣ Circle's stock surged about 16% to $131.76 in a single day, simultaneously launching Agent Stack, which allows AI agents to hold funds independently and make microtransactions in USDC with no gas fees, starting at just $0.000001.
4⃣ Morgan Stanley announced the launch of crypto trading on E*TRADE, with fees as low as 50 basis points, undercutting Coinbase and Robinhood, sparking discussions about a price war in the industry.
5⃣ The 21Shares Hyperliquid Spot ETF (THYP) officially launched today, planning to stake part of its HYPE holdings within compliance regulations.
6⃣ Anthropic declared that any stock transfers not approved by the board are invalid, leading to a nearly 25% drop in its pre-market token on the PreStocks platform in one day.
7⃣ Ondo's tokenized stock platform Global Markets, launched less than eight months ago, has achieved a TVL exceeding $1 billion, capturing over 70% of the tokenized stock market share.
8⃣ Wash votes through key procedures as the Fed chair transition countdown begins.
1⃣ The American Bankers Association has sent a letter to major banks, urging them to lobby senators to tighten stablecoin reward clauses before Thursday's committee vote, warning that existing draft loopholes could lead to massive deposit outflows.
2⃣ Roaring Kitty posted and then quickly deleted tweets related to RKC, causing the price of RKC to plummet 90%, while project developers had previously cashed out around $611,000.
3⃣ Circle's stock surged about 16% to $131.76 in a single day, simultaneously launching Agent Stack, which allows AI agents to hold funds independently and make microtransactions in USDC with no gas fees, starting at just $0.000001.
4⃣ Morgan Stanley announced the launch of crypto trading on E*TRADE, with fees as low as 50 basis points, undercutting Coinbase and Robinhood, sparking discussions about a price war in the industry.
5⃣ The 21Shares Hyperliquid Spot ETF (THYP) officially launched today, planning to stake part of its HYPE holdings within compliance regulations.
6⃣ Anthropic declared that any stock transfers not approved by the board are invalid, leading to a nearly 25% drop in its pre-market token on the PreStocks platform in one day.
7⃣ Ondo's tokenized stock platform Global Markets, launched less than eight months ago, has achieved a TVL exceeding $1 billion, capturing over 70% of the tokenized stock market share.
8⃣ Wash votes through key procedures as the Fed chair transition countdown begins.
SK Hynix, what are you betting on by buying in now?
An 860% increase over the year, and today it's up another 12.6%. Should you chase it? First, let’s understand how this company makes its money.
Same factories, same people, but a loss of 7.7 trillion won in 2023 and a profit margin of 72% by Q1 2026.
It's not the company that’s changing, it’s the price. When memory prices rise, profits skyrocket; when prices fall, profit margins can drop from 50% to zero in no time.
This is a classic cyclical stock.
Currently, the bulls have two main arguments: supply shortages and HBM.
Supply shortage is a fact, but a shortage doesn’t equal a justified high valuation.
HBM is indeed a real technological leap, with high barriers to entry and deep integration—but pricing the entire balance sheet based on the HBM story doesn’t hide the reality that regular DRAM has been oscillating at high levels.
To see if the party can continue, check these points:
1. Capital expenditures from the three memory manufacturers (MU, Samsung, Hynix): if they’re ramping up production, that’s a top signal.
2. Inventory turnover days for customers: if inventory starts piling up, that means demand is peaking.
3. The difference between spot prices and contract prices: if the gap starts narrowing, the price cycle is about to turn.
4. How much HBM contributes to revenue and how fast it’s growing: this is the core of judging if the "story can really deliver".
Hynix’s profit margins have already surpassed the historical peak of 2018, with a price-to-book ratio of 9.6 (historical median is 1.8), but not all these indicators have turned yet.
This cycle might really last longer. Historically, every cycle peak has had plenty of reasons to claim "this time is different", yet in the end, it’s always the same.
Right now, Hynix is a top-tier cyclical play dressed in the guise of an "AI revolution". If you jump in now, you’re not betting on them being the best in tech, but rather on whether this AI-driven supply shortage can break historical patterns and keep the "party" going a bit longer.
As for whether you should chase it? That depends on whether you think you’re the last one to pull the chairs away.
After all, history tells us: when everyone says "this time is different", it often turns out to be the same in the end.
#美股超话
An 860% increase over the year, and today it's up another 12.6%. Should you chase it? First, let’s understand how this company makes its money.
Same factories, same people, but a loss of 7.7 trillion won in 2023 and a profit margin of 72% by Q1 2026.
It's not the company that’s changing, it’s the price. When memory prices rise, profits skyrocket; when prices fall, profit margins can drop from 50% to zero in no time.
This is a classic cyclical stock.
Currently, the bulls have two main arguments: supply shortages and HBM.
Supply shortage is a fact, but a shortage doesn’t equal a justified high valuation.
HBM is indeed a real technological leap, with high barriers to entry and deep integration—but pricing the entire balance sheet based on the HBM story doesn’t hide the reality that regular DRAM has been oscillating at high levels.
To see if the party can continue, check these points:
1. Capital expenditures from the three memory manufacturers (MU, Samsung, Hynix): if they’re ramping up production, that’s a top signal.
2. Inventory turnover days for customers: if inventory starts piling up, that means demand is peaking.
3. The difference between spot prices and contract prices: if the gap starts narrowing, the price cycle is about to turn.
4. How much HBM contributes to revenue and how fast it’s growing: this is the core of judging if the "story can really deliver".
Hynix’s profit margins have already surpassed the historical peak of 2018, with a price-to-book ratio of 9.6 (historical median is 1.8), but not all these indicators have turned yet.
This cycle might really last longer. Historically, every cycle peak has had plenty of reasons to claim "this time is different", yet in the end, it’s always the same.
Right now, Hynix is a top-tier cyclical play dressed in the guise of an "AI revolution". If you jump in now, you’re not betting on them being the best in tech, but rather on whether this AI-driven supply shortage can break historical patterns and keep the "party" going a bit longer.
As for whether you should chase it? That depends on whether you think you’re the last one to pull the chairs away.
After all, history tells us: when everyone says "this time is different", it often turns out to be the same in the end.
#美股超话
ETH is in a continuous consolidation phase.
Ethereum hasn't shown any significant changes; supply and demand remain stable, keeping the price in a range-bound phase. Watch for resistance near previous highs, and short-term support is in the 2200-2180 range!
Currently, we're in the middle of a relatively high consolidation zone, so I wouldn't recommend overtrading—let's wait for key levels! $ETH
#ETH
Ethereum hasn't shown any significant changes; supply and demand remain stable, keeping the price in a range-bound phase. Watch for resistance near previous highs, and short-term support is in the 2200-2180 range!
Currently, we're in the middle of a relatively high consolidation zone, so I wouldn't recommend overtrading—let's wait for key levels! $ETH
#ETH
The 'short liquidation zone' at $83,000 is set, is BTC just waiting for an excuse for a violent spike?
This week's situation with #BTC can be described as 'resilience against heavy gravity'. The 'better-than-expected' non-farm data has basically shattered the market's short-term rate cut dreams, and the Fed's wait-and-see attitude has left the macro scene in a dull 'high-rate garbage time'.
From a data perspective, $80,000 is not just a psychological level but also a key support for current bullish liquidity. If this level breaks down, the cascading liquidation effect below will be painful; conversely, the massive short positions accumulating around $83,000 create a natural gravitational field. Current open interest (OI) has dropped to $25.6B, which is actually a good sign— the leverage bubble is being squeezed out, and the market is starting to revert to spot-driven dynamics. This 'low-volume oscillation' can be torturous, but it often precedes a build-up for a trend change.
On the geopolitical front, the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has slightly diminished BTC's 'safe-haven premium', but from another perspective, a stable external environment is conducive to a resurgence in risk appetite.
Core observation points for this week:
Price range: Most likely oscillating between $78,000 - $83,500, undergoing complex structural adjustments.
Game mentality: Don't be lured by short-term spike trading. During periods of low OI, the big players tend to prefer 'sweeping orders' back and forth to harvest impatient positions.
Advice: Don't jump around in the center of the oscillation range; the current setup is more suited for 'watching more, acting less'. Rather than gambling on macro noise, it's better to wait for the complete exhaustion of short momentum near $83,000.
Remember, the market today is not lacking in volatility, but in the patience to cut through the noise. $BTC $ETH
This week's situation with #BTC can be described as 'resilience against heavy gravity'. The 'better-than-expected' non-farm data has basically shattered the market's short-term rate cut dreams, and the Fed's wait-and-see attitude has left the macro scene in a dull 'high-rate garbage time'.
From a data perspective, $80,000 is not just a psychological level but also a key support for current bullish liquidity. If this level breaks down, the cascading liquidation effect below will be painful; conversely, the massive short positions accumulating around $83,000 create a natural gravitational field. Current open interest (OI) has dropped to $25.6B, which is actually a good sign— the leverage bubble is being squeezed out, and the market is starting to revert to spot-driven dynamics. This 'low-volume oscillation' can be torturous, but it often precedes a build-up for a trend change.
On the geopolitical front, the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has slightly diminished BTC's 'safe-haven premium', but from another perspective, a stable external environment is conducive to a resurgence in risk appetite.
Core observation points for this week:
Price range: Most likely oscillating between $78,000 - $83,500, undergoing complex structural adjustments.
Game mentality: Don't be lured by short-term spike trading. During periods of low OI, the big players tend to prefer 'sweeping orders' back and forth to harvest impatient positions.
Advice: Don't jump around in the center of the oscillation range; the current setup is more suited for 'watching more, acting less'. Rather than gambling on macro noise, it's better to wait for the complete exhaustion of short momentum near $83,000.
Remember, the market today is not lacking in volatility, but in the patience to cut through the noise. $BTC $ETH
BTC is pushing higher on the micro level again
Approaching previous highs, it's retracing after a spike, and a new gap has opened on the CME chart, with support at 80500, which is likely to be filled soon!
The horizontal line on the four-hour chart is bouncing back with support; keep an eye on whether it dips below again. Short-term resistance is in the 83500-84000 range! $BTC
#BTC
Approaching previous highs, it's retracing after a spike, and a new gap has opened on the CME chart, with support at 80500, which is likely to be filled soon!
The horizontal line on the four-hour chart is bouncing back with support; keep an eye on whether it dips below again. Short-term resistance is in the 83500-84000 range! $BTC
#BTC
Oil prices soar, whales take a hit丨5/11
1. US-Iran talks collapse, Trump rejects Iran's proposal and threatens to escalate military action. WTI crude oil surges over 4.8% in a day, breaking through $100/barrel. The three major US stock index futures dip about 0.3%, while Bitcoin stands resiliently at over $82,000.
2. The so-called "1011 whale" has transferred approximately 578,000 ETH (around $1.35 billion) to Binance in just six days, incurring about $1.3 billion in losses. Three new wallets subsequently withdrew around $700 million USDT from Binance, suspected to have completed part of the cash-out.
3. Altcoins rebound across the board, with SUI up over 26% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1.349. OSMO rises 49%, and BSC Meme coin "Binance Life" surges over 21% with a market cap reaching $456 million.
4. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $182 million, with short liquidations accounting for $145 million. The largest single liquidation was a long position on Binance ETH/USDT worth $6.59 million.
5. DeepSeek plans to raise up to 50 billion RMB, potentially becoming the largest funding round in the history of Chinese AI companies.
6. Strategy CEO Phong Le clarified that the company only sells BTC when mNAV falls below approximately 1.22 or for tax management purposes. They currently hold 818,334 BTC with an average price of about $75,537, and a daily trading volume exceeding $60 billion, indicating no liquidity issues.
7. This week's macro focus: Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and take over from Powell on the 15th. The US April CPI data will be released on Tuesday, with the market paying attention to the inflation impact from the US-Iran conflict and oil prices.
8. Microsoft's security team disclosed that attackers are luring users into executing malicious terminal commands through fake macOS troubleshooting guides, capable of stealing private keys from mainstream crypto wallets like Exodus and Ledger, with Apple having fixed the issue in macOS 26.4.
9. PayPal and Google Cloud executives stated that AI Agents cannot open traditional bank accounts, and crypto payments will become the underlying infrastructure of AI businesses. Google has launched the AP2 protocol and attracted over 120 partners.
10. This week, token unlocking pressure is concentrated: STRK will unlock 127 million tokens, accounting for 4.05% of the circulating supply; LAYER will unlock 7.26%; ZK will unlock 173 million tokens, with supply pressure from multiple projects worth monitoring.
1. US-Iran talks collapse, Trump rejects Iran's proposal and threatens to escalate military action. WTI crude oil surges over 4.8% in a day, breaking through $100/barrel. The three major US stock index futures dip about 0.3%, while Bitcoin stands resiliently at over $82,000.
2. The so-called "1011 whale" has transferred approximately 578,000 ETH (around $1.35 billion) to Binance in just six days, incurring about $1.3 billion in losses. Three new wallets subsequently withdrew around $700 million USDT from Binance, suspected to have completed part of the cash-out.
3. Altcoins rebound across the board, with SUI up over 26% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1.349. OSMO rises 49%, and BSC Meme coin "Binance Life" surges over 21% with a market cap reaching $456 million.
4. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $182 million, with short liquidations accounting for $145 million. The largest single liquidation was a long position on Binance ETH/USDT worth $6.59 million.
5. DeepSeek plans to raise up to 50 billion RMB, potentially becoming the largest funding round in the history of Chinese AI companies.
6. Strategy CEO Phong Le clarified that the company only sells BTC when mNAV falls below approximately 1.22 or for tax management purposes. They currently hold 818,334 BTC with an average price of about $75,537, and a daily trading volume exceeding $60 billion, indicating no liquidity issues.
7. This week's macro focus: Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and take over from Powell on the 15th. The US April CPI data will be released on Tuesday, with the market paying attention to the inflation impact from the US-Iran conflict and oil prices.
8. Microsoft's security team disclosed that attackers are luring users into executing malicious terminal commands through fake macOS troubleshooting guides, capable of stealing private keys from mainstream crypto wallets like Exodus and Ledger, with Apple having fixed the issue in macOS 26.4.
9. PayPal and Google Cloud executives stated that AI Agents cannot open traditional bank accounts, and crypto payments will become the underlying infrastructure of AI businesses. Google has launched the AP2 protocol and attracted over 120 partners.
10. This week, token unlocking pressure is concentrated: STRK will unlock 127 million tokens, accounting for 4.05% of the circulating supply; LAYER will unlock 7.26%; ZK will unlock 173 million tokens, with supply pressure from multiple projects worth monitoring.
#ACE
A couple of days ago, I noticed the contract positions skyrocketed by over 10 million, now almost matching the market cap. Feels like the whales are up to something, so I threw in a little on a 3x leverage bet.
Yo, Bro, are you for real this time? Just asking: are we strong or what?
#fil
A couple of days back, I went long around 1.03, hit a peak of nearly 30 points. Even though the target of 1.6 hasn't been reached yet, I had the brothers take some profits, and I’m leaving a bit of position with a trailing stop to keep riding.
The crypto storage sector finally showed some movement, not trying to catch the last bit, and not jumping off early.
——
Both trades aren't anything to brag about; just the whales giving us crumbs.
Next time there's some unusual movement, I’ll shout out in the group ahead of time, and you can decide if you want to follow.
#百倍狙击室
A couple of days ago, I noticed the contract positions skyrocketed by over 10 million, now almost matching the market cap. Feels like the whales are up to something, so I threw in a little on a 3x leverage bet.
Yo, Bro, are you for real this time? Just asking: are we strong or what?
#fil
A couple of days back, I went long around 1.03, hit a peak of nearly 30 points. Even though the target of 1.6 hasn't been reached yet, I had the brothers take some profits, and I’m leaving a bit of position with a trailing stop to keep riding.
The crypto storage sector finally showed some movement, not trying to catch the last bit, and not jumping off early.
——
Both trades aren't anything to brag about; just the whales giving us crumbs.
Next time there's some unusual movement, I’ll shout out in the group ahead of time, and you can decide if you want to follow.
#百倍狙击室
CL Crude Oil
Crude oil is currently heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, with the US and Iran sparking tensions, causing a direct spike, nearing the $100 mark. The support zone below hasn't even been touched before the price started climbing. The bullish opportunity we mentioned yesterday came too quickly!
Resistance levels above are at 116-118, with short-term resistance at 109.9, while support is sitting in the 81-82 range! $CL
#原油
Crude oil is currently heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, with the US and Iran sparking tensions, causing a direct spike, nearing the $100 mark. The support zone below hasn't even been touched before the price started climbing. The bullish opportunity we mentioned yesterday came too quickly!
Resistance levels above are at 116-118, with short-term resistance at 109.9, while support is sitting in the 81-82 range! $CL
#原油
ETH is following the downtrend on a smaller scale
Ethereum has completely missed the opportunity for a rebound. Bitcoin is starting to pull back, and ETH is following suit, having already dropped below 2300. The key support levels are now at 2200-2180. Who's going to save ETH this time? $ETH
#ETH
Ethereum has completely missed the opportunity for a rebound. Bitcoin is starting to pull back, and ETH is following suit, having already dropped below 2300. The key support levels are now at 2200-2180. Who's going to save ETH this time? $ETH
#ETH
BTC Small timeframe starting to pull back
The big coin has broken below 80k on the small timeframe and is entering a correction phase. The support below is around 78k, near the lower edge of the uptrend channel. If it breaks below here, we could see a deeper pullback or a new downtrend starting!
Currently, just keep an eye on the support at 78k! $BTC
#BTC
The big coin has broken below 80k on the small timeframe and is entering a correction phase. The support below is around 78k, near the lower edge of the uptrend channel. If it breaks below here, we could see a deeper pullback or a new downtrend starting!
Currently, just keep an eye on the support at 78k! $BTC
#BTC
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