每天賺百分之六

It's now May 9, 2026, at 19:38. It's Saturday, and the market volume is sluggish. I'm going to do a comprehensive analysis of the recent long-term short strategy for BTC, which can also be seen as a summary of my past market analyses.
Since my last post, BTC has been ranging between 79288 and 80588, especially around 2 AM Beijing time last night.
After the US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data was released from 0:30 to 23:00, the price action accelerated its oscillation but still hasn't broken out of this range. This aligns with the expectation mentioned in my previous analysis 昨日行情分析 regarding a small range correction here. This doesn't meet my personal risk-reward expectations, so I haven't made any short-term moves. The current market price is 80300. Looking at the 4-hour candlestick chart in Figure 1, we can see that the current price is at the bottom of the previous segment (from November 21, 2025, to January 29, 2026). After the recent drop, there have been multiple rebounds, but the price still hasn't managed to break through this resistance level. Similarly, in Figure 1, we can see that the upper resistance at 84600, marked by the red line, has seen significant rebounds during past retracements, with the highest rebound reaching around 97800. After breaking down, the price rebounded to 84600 but failed to break through, which initiated a drop to 60000. This has created a support-resistance flip, and we can consider this as the highest point of the movement that has a low of 60000. Once this level is broken, the bearish trend that started from the 60000 low will end. Therefore, in my past analyses and personal trades, I set this level as the stop-loss for the long-term short position. The reason for going short is straightforward: we're still in a bear market, which is a consensus among most traders. The long-short ratio and net short positions confirm this. Moreover, if 60000 represents the bottom of this bear market, where will the peak of the next bull market be? How much profit can the big players achieve? Lastly, this is just my personal opinion: with the US stock market performing so well, why invest in a bunch of data? Isn't it better to invest in something with real value like US stocks? Considering these reasons, I've opted for a long-term short position here, betting that new lows will come.

It's now 2026.05.14 at 0:50 AM. I'm still holding onto my long-term short position, and I've decided to reduce my exposure at 75588, keeping about 1-1.5 positions for the ongoing trend.
BTC price has touched a high near 82500 since the last long-term short analysis, but it didn't make a new peak and has started to drop. Currently, the price has broken below the short-term support at 79288, hitting a low of 78713, with the current market price around 79200. The long-to-short ratio has now crossed 1.0, indicating that the big players have cleared out most of the short-sellers in recent days. Given that this ratio has been low for a while, I believe it shouldn’t be the primary reference for trading just yet. In the last analysis, I mentioned that the MACD daily divergence has formed. It can be said that the bullish trend since early April has come to an end. Based on the chart, the bearish momentum on the hourly chart is starting to weaken, temporarily halting the drop. For short-term traders, the key level to watch is around 80588; you could set up a position here with a stop-loss just above the recent drop point at 81280. For take-profit, reduce your position at the 1:1 level below and reassess for new lows. On the long-term side, we need to keep an eye on whether we can break through the 81888 level again; this is also where I plan to add to my short position. I held back from adding previously because I wanted to wait for a correction to see the pattern develop. Since the market is showing signs of weakness now, I will lower my stop-loss to within 1000 points above the previous high. The added positions will be closed near the current lows, continuing to use low leverage while waiting to reduce at 75588, ultimately keeping a 1-1.5x position for the final drop. Long-term, we really need to play it safe; it may not be the best entry point, but it has to be secure. Given that the market is starting to stagnate, I will also begin to engage in some short-term trading, executing market orders based on the support levels illustrated according to the volume-price relationship.

It's now 23:38 on June 9, 2026, and the long-term short position remains unchanged since the last trade.
$BTC The price has rebounded again since the last post, hitting a peak at 64,200, then oscillating in the range of 62,000-64,200, all while trying to break through the 64,900 resistance. Currently, the market price is around 61,388. In qualified data, net longs have entered multiple times but quickly exited after short-term profits. Net shorts, two hours ago, also saw slight exits as prices rose. This behavior contributed to the short-term increase in BTC prices. However, two hours ago, as BTC prices broke below the hourly uptrend line since 59,000 (forgot to include a screenshot, draw it yourself), net shorts entered heavily, causing a swift price drop. Although it only dropped by over 2,000 points, it represented a decline of over 3% for the current BTC price. This validates the previous statement that the current market is unfriendly for short-term trading, and I advise against participating in short-term operations. The daily RSI we were watching has shown good recovery during the recent price consolidation over the past two days. Although it remains low, it has left significant room for the previous unfulfilled downward expectations. The market over the past two days aligns with the previous view of waiting for consolidation. As for whether it will continue to consolidate within the current price range or break out directly, I still advise against participation; the risk-reward ratio is poor. While you might get lucky once, the losses can lead to higher capital depletion, making it not worth the gamble. I personally feel that those trying to long for a rebound in this range are likely the same ones who entered around the 70,000 mark earlier, acting as fuel for the subsequent drop. In my opinion, placing bets on longs here is not as wise as reserving some funds for spot trading; without funding fees and forced liquidation prices, the win rate would be higher.

It's now 2026.06.08 at 01:40 AM, and the long position is still shorted, no new moves made.
$BTC Although the price dropped below the previous low to around 59000 after the last analysis, it hasn’t plummeted as expected. The rebound failed to break through 63000, with the current market price around 62100. The long-term view still focuses on whether we can break through 64900 and what the price action will be post-breakout. Given the current BTC price, I don’t recommend any short-term trades because even slight oscillations of 1000+ points represent a 2% fluctuation, which isn’t friendly for day trading. If you’re going in with a light position, it won't meet the profit targets of short-term players. Currently, regarding the net long/short positions and the ratio of long to short holders in the futures data, there are no new insights. Just a heads up about the daily RSI, which indicates that the price only rebounded less than 4000 points, but the daily RSI (6) has jumped from below 5.5 to over 18.6. This recovery speed seems a bit quick, so my personal stance is still long on shorts but short on longs. Of course, you could say this is influenced by my ongoing long position in the short, affecting my personal analysis of the data.

It's now 2026.06.05, 00:06. $BTC No new operations for the long-term short position, just continuing the same setup, waiting to see if that final push results in a score. Yesterday's early morning long at 65700 had a stop-loss at 64900.
BTC price broke below the previously emphasized support at 64900 in the early morning of yesterday Beijing time, dropping to a low of 61300 before starting a rebound, peaking around 64700. At that time, I also reminded in the square post: 'The rebound is here, is the bull back?' Currently, although we experienced a second rebound last night, we still haven't broken through 64900, and we also need to pay attention to the short-term pullback lows that are rising. In the contract data, the long-to-short ratio has decreased with the price rebound, currently at 1.9, down from a previous high of 2.35, which is just a tad off my long position reference of 2.4; the net short number has seen some exit after the price dropped below 62000, and I haven't observed any continuous entry behavior. Although the net long saw some entry during the second rebound last night, they have mostly exited, returning to the daytime values from yesterday. Combining the data, both longs and shorts lack a clear direction, much like a ceasefire after a major battle. Therefore, there are no operational suggestions at the current market price; our next step is to judge the upcoming market trend based on price action, determining the upper and lower boundaries, which are the previous support of 64900 down to the new low of around 61300. We'll continue to observe which side breaks first before hopping on the trend for a short-term play. My long-term view remains bearish, anticipating a break below 60000. Of course, this view is largely influenced by my ongoing long-term short position at 80000, still hoping to follow the expected trajectory when I opened the position. Currently, the original expectation seems correct, and we have reached about 40% of the total expectation, just waiting for that crucial final push to score. For friends who prefer long positions, I personally suggest considering the upper level at 67788 and the lower psychological level at 60000. If given the opportunity, the stop-loss would be around 69000 for the upper level, while a direct drop below to chase shorts would have a stop-loss near the new low of 61300 on the left side. Positioning should still follow the old rule of not exceeding three times leverage, and of course, you can also enter in batches at market price, seizing opportunities as they arise. As for short-term longs, it's about breaking through 64900, the upper boundary of the current consolidation, before considering entry, with the stop-loss placed at the recent left-side low of the short-term market. The take-profit position should follow a risk-reward ratio of 1:1, then adjust upwards, with a key focus on the upper pressure near 67788. Currently, the market is influenced by the daily RSI being oversold; my subjective view is that this is a downward continuation. Recently, this data has had a significant impact; otherwise, I wouldn't have entered the short-term long position yesterday.

It's now 2026.06.03 at 01:15 AM, and the BTC long-term short position continues its trend with no new trades. The previously shared long position at 70388 has exited near the cost, with the reasons for exiting explained in the last brief.
$BTC The price has been accelerating downwards since Monday afternoon at 74000, breaking below the 70000 level yesterday, hitting a low of 67000. Currently, it's hovering around 67600 with a weak rebound, waiting for further consolidation. The contract data shows a long-to-short ratio of 2.17, which hasn’t reached the reference value for personal market long positions. Since Monday, the net longs have entered multiple times without a significant rebound and quickly exited, while net shorts continue to enter without noticeable exits. The current market outlook remains unchanged; even yesterday evening around the market price of 79500, I reminded that aside from the daily RSI above levels, there are no indicators suggesting a long position. Betting on an oversold RSI has a low win rate, and I can't confirm a precise reversal at these lows. So, even though the daily RSI is below an oversold 9.0, I still have no intention to enter long for short-term profits. Until the bear market downtrend reverses, I'll let the rebounds play out.

It's now 2026.06.02 at 0:45, and the long-term short positions for BTC continue without reducing exposure, with the defense moving down to 78888.
BTC price retraced from 74100 yesterday afternoon, and after breaking below the support around 72500, it hit a low of 70650 before starting to bounce back. Our long position at 70388 set on May 23 hasn't been triggered yet, and I've just notified that if the price rises to around 72388, then the 70388 long position will be canceled. Back to the market, the current Binance futures long-short ratio is 2.03, marking the first time this data has gone above 2.0 since April 3. However, this value hasn't met my market entry conditions for a long position yet. Since last Thursday, net long and net short positions indicate a fierce battle between bulls and bears, and the current value shows no significant difference from last Thursday; we need to observe further. The liquidation heatmap shows that the total liquidation amount for BTC in the last 12 hours is $481 million, with $424 million in long positions. The current situation for longs is drastically different from last month. Most short liquidations occurred at 21:58 Beijing time, where a one-minute candlestick with a thousand-point range wiped out most of the short sellers, showcasing the current market dominance by the major players. Thus, I suggest keeping the position light and not going all in. Currently, BTC is priced around 71500, with nearby resistance at 72500. Above that, we have our short entry point from a few days ago at 74900. Given the trading volume around 72500 on the left side, those who just entered long should set up cost defenses here. As for short entry points, I still stick to the 74900 area from previous analyses, but it's reasonable to stagger positions a few hundred points apart to prevent missing out. BTC's current market needs some consolidation, and I personally believe the bulls will make a stand at the 70000 level. Whether they succeed can only be seen as the market unfolds. Don't forget, we are still in a bear market; don’t be fooled by the major players' short squeeze that pushed prices up to 82800 last month. In the daily chart, RSI has dropped below 20, indicating oversold conditions, which isn't favorable for bears. Of course, having dropped over 10000 points in half a month, we need some rebound and fluctuation here to correct the previous downtrend. Key observation is whether 74900 can break again. Currently, due to the long-term short position setup, whether to enter or take profits on short positions doesn’t mean much to me personally, so I will stick to my strategy: take the opportunity when it arises, and if not, then let it go.

It's now 2026.05.29 at 0:16, and I'm still holding my long-term BTC short position, no trades made. As mentioned in my previous market analysis, if we break below the safe point of 73588, I'm chasing the shorts because of the bullish net positions that came in within the first box in Chart Two, and the market price shot up. I'm afraid of getting caught and scared off, but looking at the second box with so many bulls entering, the price hasn't surged strongly yet, so I'm feeling a bit timid today. I'll stick to my original strategy and continue to place my shorts at 74900.
After BTC's price broke below 74900 yesterday, it consolidated for a few hours before pulling back to around the low of 72600. Our long-term short position has covered about 20% of the total journey, and according to the strategy, this trade has conservatively yielded about 15% profit for the account. I'm holding on since the position size is small; we've just started. Back to the charts, the MACD daily fast and slow lines have broken below the zero line, and the three-day line's death cross is close to the zero line (this three-day line data is crucial in the long-term strategy). Since we've broken below it, the support and resistance near 74900 have swapped, so according to the original strategy, we’ll boldly place our shorts again at 74900. Since we've broken below, the bulls need a breakout that’s more than just a shake-up; it requires a leap in class, which is tough during a bearish market after a rebound. Recently, the long-short ratio of contracts that I've brought back into trading reference is currently at 1.85, and based on historical data, there hasn’t been a good entry point for longs. Of course, the volatility of about 1800 points is excluded from my trading system. Currently, BTC is hovering around 73100; looking at Chart One, the former support at 73588 has turned into a short-term resistance point, and there’s short-term support near 72500. The rebound momentum is quite weak; the large amount of bulls entering the second box in Chart Two without a strong price increase confirms this. So, I personally think it's not the right time to enter longs. As for a potential long entry point, I recommend support at 70388, with a stop-loss of about 800-900 points. Looking at the left side, the price has oscillated between 70000-74000 twice, so as mentioned in earlier market analysis, we’ll try to profit from both longs and shorts in this range. Whether we can catch a move or how many times we can catch it is uncertain, so I’d suggest going long only when the price hits the right position while sticking to the short strategy.