- Trump just declared that they won the war. - But on the other hand, USOIL just have a spike to $91 in the last 1 hour. I still think that Oil will visit $100 unless there is resolution in Hormuz. - 4 consecutive days of the S&P500 has closed below the $6800.
Time is ticking, we are going to see big move very soon. Based on my calculation, there is 65%-70% probability of the big move favoring the bears.
Watch out.
My trade right now : 1. Long Oil 2. Short equity
*For BTC, I still think that we can go a little bit higher considering it's now the most hated asset in the world. But short term could get a pull back if stock market does.
This is the chart of oil which is the every reason behind the rally in all risk asset.
Drop -33% in the last 2 days and continuing. The fear which was dominating the market yesterday has now became just another noise after Trump predicted the war will end soon.
It's all reflected in the price.. There is no secret that Trump actually is very concern to the equity market performance. So, should we trust the Trump statement about war ending soon?
Again, it has happened several times and right now is no different.. Don't be in euphoria and don't blindly buy here. Always use proper risk management..
Also anticipate another weird statement from Trump again in the future.
I wasn’t active for quite some time because the workload was very heavy, but the trust my clients showed during this period honestly means a lot ❤️ During this time, my clients gave me a **50% profit split** — that’s real support and real results.
This screenshot reflects my activity and consistency 📊 A slow and conservative approach always wins the long-term game.
Regular updates, trade setups, and guidance are starting again. The market is stabilizing — and so are we 🔥
Structurally, it's looking good trying to defend this key support level at $90k and also as a stance to retest previous broken resistance trend line which is now acting as support.
This $90k level is the most important level we need to watch for intraday level as this is the psychological level for the traders.
Shorts are also stacking their position here with the vulnerability of getting squeezed if the price can surpass the $92k (just like what I anticipated yesterday).
Let's wait, volume is very low but it's clear that price wants to go up. Current correction is fueled by the short position, not spot selling.
I'll be active during the weekend because there is a heating situation in Iran right now. Source says that some air forces have been sent to Tehran? This is important guys
We reached today's resistance at the $93,400 level from which we are now seeing a pullback sending the price back toward $92,000
However the upward impulse is not being suppressed very aggressively yet
Therefore as I mentioned earlier I am accounting for the possibility of a squeeze all the way to the resistance boundary at $94,000. There, the trend should very likely shift to downward
I will stick to this scenario until we break the $95,000 level and close above it on the daily chart. Only in that case would it be reasonable to change the setup. Until that happens downward expectations remain the priority
Also my quant sent me this behavioral change in term of BTC current movement.
1. Bid/ask ratio with the ob depth of 10% has now flipped positive, means that swing players are accumulating after previously being dominated by the short sellers on period between Nov 21 - Dec 18. 2. Funding rate is hiking after period of contraction, meaning that the long position is now dominating again in term of total positioning.
Still expecting the liquidation on both long and short before we see an expansion in the price.
The good point right now is that the altcoins (based on the TOTAL3ES) are outperforming Total market cap as the base index in this run.
This is important as it means money is flowing into the RISKIER asset which usually becomes the main driver for much higher movement in total market capitalization.
I'm going to watch how the US equity market open today as I have the thesis that buyer will step in after the tax harvesting period at the year-end.