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Today's most important news:
The Federal Reserve officially ends QT, BTC breaks 89000

What is QT?
QT (Quantitative Tightening) is a series of policies by the Federal Reserve to withdraw money, reducing the amount of money in the market and making assets easier to depreciate.

What does the end of QT mean?
The Federal Reserve will no longer withdraw funds, reducing the pressure on capital in the market, which will stimulate the stock and cryptocurrency markets to rise.

Does the end of QT mean the beginning of QE?
QE (Quantitative Easing) is the opposite of QT, where the Federal Reserve implements a series of policies to inject money, increasing the amount of money in the market and making assets easier to appreciate. Usually, after the end of QT, QE will begin after some time, but it depends on the situation and it may not start immediately.

When will QE start?
This depends on the economic conditions (inflation, employment), and we need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10.

$BTC is oscillating below $90,000, with market attention focused on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, if rates remain unchanged, Bitcoin could consolidate in the $60,000–$80,000 range until the end of the year. Expectations for a rate cut have plummeted from over 70% to 40–50%, with tightening liquidity putting pressure on risk assets.

The macro background is complex. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of employment data, and inflation remains close to 3%, leaving policymakers without a clear view. Historically, a tightening environment tends to suppress risk assets, and this month's market correction has validated that pattern. Leveraged positions are particularly vulnerable in a low liquidity environment.

However, on-chain data shows potential support. Exchange stablecoin reserves have reached a historic high of $72.2 billion. Each major rebound in 2025 has been accompanied by similar capital accumulation, indicating strong “off-market liquidity” waiting for macro signals. If policy risks subside, this capital could quickly shift to Bitcoin.

Multiple analysts deny the narrative of a “crypto winter.” Bitwise and HashKey point out that this round of declines resembles a macro-driven correction rather than a systemic collapse. Unlike in the past, the current cycle has not seen a catastrophic event like FTX; instead, there has been continued progress in infrastructure such as tokenization and stablecoin expansion.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's short-term movement depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. If rates remain unchanged, BTC may consolidate in the $60K–$80K range, but the accumulation of stablecoin reserves provides strong fuel for a future rebound. Investors should pay attention to policy signals and capital flows, as these will determine whether Bitcoin can regain strength in early 2026.

#BTC #stablecoin #interest rate policy #crypto market #financial observation @EdgenTech

Good news has arrived. The recently announced core PCE for the US in September is 2.8, lower than last month's 2.9.

This shows a slowdown in inflationary pressure, and this figure is set for the Fed's interest rate cut next Wednesday, which is finally a done deal.

Next, we will see if Powell will adopt a hawkish stance at the interest rate meeting. Regardless, there will definitely be applause worldwide.

The decline in inflation is a positive for all assets, with no exceptions.

Another piece of good news is that in December, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is at 53.3, marking the first increase in five months. This is a turnaround for consumer confidence, which has been continuously declining since the tariffs.

Moreover, the driver for this turnaround is also very crucial, coinciding with the end of the year and Christmas. This wave of Christmas market is guaranteed, and the market sentiment is bullish.

September core PCE was lower than expected, with not much impact, moderately benefiting risk assets, especially U.S. stocks and technology stocks. Although it was 0.1% lower than expected, the direction of inflation cooling is correct. At least the Federal Reserve 'does not need to be more hawkish', and expectations for interest rate cuts will slightly increase, reducing the 'downward pressure' on risk assets, and let's wait and see, U.S. stocks are correcting, waiting for BTC to drop thoroughly, it has already accelerated briefly.

Cognitive Gap: The latest regulations from the U.S. government will open stock accounts for every child under 10 years old and inject funds into these accounts, which can only purchase specified index customer assets, such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, and withdrawals are not allowed until the age of 18! A great initiative! This is the cognitive gap between countries!

Using AI to organize the past four rounds of Federal Reserve QE, in comparison with BTC's trend, we can see a very stable macro pattern:

1) Sensitivity of Crypto to liquidity = the strongest among all major assets

The essence of QE is balance sheet expansion + interest rate reduction → lowering risk premiums → increasing asset valuations. The liquidity sensitivity ranking of different assets is very clear:
Crypto > Technology Stocks > Gold > Real Estate > Commodities

The reasons are simple:
① No cash flow constraints, valuations rely entirely on expectations
② High volatility, high elasticity, marginal changes in funds have a huge impact
③ QE lowers risk premiums, and funds naturally flow to the most elastic assets

In a loose environment, Crypto's β is usually 3–5 times that of traditional assets.

2) Every round of QE is accompanied by a structural increase cycle of BTC

QE1 (2008–2010): BTC from no pricing → entering the price discovery phase
QE2 (2010–2011): BTC's first explosive growth (thousands of times)
QE3 (2012–2014): BTC from ~$12 → ~$1100, forming the first 'super cycle'
QE4 (2020–2021): BTC from ~$3800 → ~$69000, the largest increase cycle in history
The three major bull markets of BTC (2011, 2013, 2020–21) correspond completely to QE liquidity expansion.

3) Infusion of liquidity leads to another easily overlooked fact: stopping QT ≠ immediately starting QE, there is often a 'liquidity vacuum period' between QT and QE.

During this phase (we are here), market volatility is greater, and Crypto often does not immediately enter a major upward wave. True exponential growth usually occurs after transitioning from tight to loose (QE initiation).

🕚Tonight at 11 PM, US PCE data! Previous value & expectation 2.9%.

📉Stability indicates stable inflation, Federal Reserve easing, market relaxing.

💎Neutral to mildly positive for the crypto space, BTC, ETH may continue to rise.

⚠️Beware of higher than expected, inflation rebound may cause panic sell-off.
Keep an eye on the data!

#PCE #Inflation #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve #BTC #ETH #SellOff

BTC has fallen, altcoins have also dropped, and the market is highly volatile. However, the U.S. stock market has risen, and U.S. unemployment data unexpectedly decreased, showing that the labor market is quite resilient. Hassett said that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.

$BTC remains around $92,000 when the Asian market opens, up about 2.3%, stabilizing temporarily after recent volatility. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has rebounded to $3.23 trillion, with $ETH at $3,035 and $XRP at $2.14. Trading volume remains cautious as investors await the delayed U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's next policy signal.

Asian stock markets surged significantly due to Nvidia's strong earnings report and CEO Jensen Huang's optimistic outlook on AI chip demand. The Japanese Nikkei index rose by 3.2%, the Korean Kospi increased by 2.6%, and the Taiwan stock market also benefited from the strong performance of semiconductor and supply chain companies. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Advantest saw gains between 4%–9%, while SoftBank Group also rose by 3.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index rebounded by 1.2%, with U.S. stock futures trending higher simultaneously.

However, the Hong Kong and mainland China markets showed weakness. The Hang Seng Index slightly fell by 0.1%, and the main indices in the mainland switched from gains to flat. Xiaomi faced pressure due to rising chip costs leading to higher global smartphone price expectations, and the electric vehicle sector continued to decline due to the expiration of subsidies and slowing demand.

On the macro level, the delayed release of U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remain focal points for the market. The minutes from the October meeting indicated that despite the Federal Reserve having cut interest rates, officials warned that excessive easing could lead to entrenched inflation and diminished public trust. The strengthening dollar has also suppressed risk appetite.

Conclusion/Insight: The rebound of technology stocks in the Asian market and the stabilization of Bitcoin show that risk assets still have resilience amidst macro uncertainty. However, the weakness in the Chinese market and the undecided Federal Reserve policy remind investors that short-term volatility may still intensify. Monitoring U.S. employment data and interest rate paths will be key in determining the market direction before the end of the year.

#BTC #ETH #XRP #Nikkei #Kospi #Nvidia #AsianMarket #FinancialObservation @EdgenTech

Today there are still no significant changes in politics and macroeconomics, and the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's actions in December, so everyone is being relatively cautious. The US stock market and $BTC are maintaining slight fluctuations, and even some data released today have little impact on the overall market. Moreover, the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December.

Unless there are any major surprises this week, it should pass like this, with the key focus being next week, including the dot plot, Powell's speech, and even the sequential data releases, which will increase market volatility.

Looking back at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate has decreased significantly, and investor sentiment is relatively normal. As mentioned earlier, the market is currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's policy in December. There's only one day left in this week, and hopefully, there won't be any unexpected issues, as next week's competition will not be lacking.

From a chip structure perspective, it is still very stable at present, with no signs of losses or panic among early investors. The support level is gradually recovering, and most investors still have a long-term holding attitude towards $BTC.

How can an ordinary person achieve a lifetime of spending without running out of 1 million?

Assuming you now have 1 million, with a fixed monthly expenditure of 3000 yuan.

How long can you last? The answer is 20 years.

What if we change the approach?

You still have 1 million, still spending 3000 yuan each month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.5%, but you don't let the money sit idle; instead, you make asset allocations.

Your annual return rate is 6.5%, how long can you spend?

The answer is you can spend forever, that's right, forever!

Because every year the money you make from your money exceeds your expenditure, and it can even outpace inflation, so the key question changes.

It's no longer about how much money I need in total, but how much I need to spend each month?

In a second-tier city, with a net expenditure of 6000 yuan per month, without worrying about rent, it should still be a relatively decent and comfortable living standard. How much principal do you need to support such a life?

Calculating with the above method, it's about 2 million. When you have this money and the ability to generate returns, what you gain is certainly not the ability to buy cars or houses, nor luxury goods, but a kind of freedom of choice, which is called financial freedom.

This confidence to say I quit anytime, the freedom no one can force you to do what you don't want to do, is your goal of struggle and the most expensive luxury. At this point, work is not about earning a living, but about entertainment!

You go to work just because you're a bit bored at home.
If any environment is uncomfortable, you just leave.
Salary is just the extra reward given by the system when you play games.

For most professions, if not for making money, but just to experience, it can still be quite interesting, like taking photos of strangers on the street, being an NPC in an escape room, traveling as a hotel experience officer, or even doing the same things in your original company.

But once you are not controlled by anyone, all work becomes clear and bright.
When you do something purely for the joy of it, you actually have a greater chance of doing it better than everyone else.

So the endpoint of financial freedom is not how much fixed money you have,
But to turn your whole life into your own amusement park, with others as NPCs.
Enjoy your own system well!

When you trade cryptocurrencies or start a business and earn some money, set aside enough for your family's basic living expenses for 5 to 20 years and leave it there, never touching it.\n\nNo matter what kind of desperate situation you encounter in your work or business, you must not touch that money.\n\nOnce you have basic material security, your perspective on the world will change: you will no longer be short-sighted, you will have more patience to seriously cultivate a particular skill, a business, or a field, with the ability for delayed gratification and long-term planning.\n\nBecause you know that even in the worst-case scenario, you can still go 5 to 20 years without working, and your family will still have food to eat and a place to live. But once you don't have that money, that basic survival security, many things you do will have to be short-sighted decisions made out of the urgency to make money, leading to wrong decisions in the long run, making shortsighted decisions, and making decisions focused on quick gains and short-term benefits.

核心驱动目前仍在同一方向发力：

1、机构：Vanguard、BoA 放开 BTC ETF 限制，BlackRock IBIT 等继续单日净流入数亿美元；

2、宏观：美联储结束 QT，12 月降息预期从 ~30% 拉到 90%+；

3、叙事：ETH Fusaka 硬分叉落地，带动 L2/DeFi 风险偏好回升；

4、政策 & 公司：MSTR 持续大额增持，各国对 BTC 的法律和税收环境边际改善。

Today ETH has a bit of a surprise, it's at 3200, with a 6.56% increase in 24h and a trading volume of 31.6B, which feels much better than BTC's small increase of 1.62%. SOL also touched 145, with a 4.57% increase that is relatively stable, and DOT also rose by 3.85%. It is estimated that the expectations for Cancun upgrades are still fermenting, plus last night's Fed speech was dovish, so institutional funds are starting to shift towards the ETH ecosystem?

Today's violent rebound of BTC is the emotional release at the liquidity turning point.

On December 1st, the Federal Reserve conducted a $13.5B overnight repurchase operation. This is a scale that has rarely been seen in the past four years, a typical signal of "the market is short of dollars in the short term."

Stopping QT + overnight repurchase spike, simply put: no more easing, but the tightening has ended, the liquidity bottom turning point has arrived.

BTC breaks through the $92,000 mark! This is not just a leap in numbers, but an explosion of confidence in the crypto market. Recently, expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with another rate cut possible in December, driving funds into high-risk assets. Institutional investors are accelerating their entry, with giants like Blackstone and Morgan increasing their allocations, while MicroStrategy continues to accumulate coins, highlighting the supply tightening effect. In addition, the Trump administration's pro-crypto policies are taking shape, and the regulatory environment is becoming more friendly, stimulating global buying. Technically, BTC rebounded strongly after filling the CME gap, and the RSI shows overbought conditions but with strong momentum. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but in the long run, Arthur Hayes predicts that reaching $250,000 by the end of the year is not mere talk. Investors should be aware of risks: geopolitical uncertainties and liquidity pressures may trigger a pullback. However, the overall trend is upward, and it is recommended to build positions in batches. The crypto winter is over, and the bull market is in full swing! #Bitcoin #CryptoBullRun

Last night, the news about the almost predetermined new chairman of the Federal Reserve came out. Trump hinted that former Coinbase advisor Kevin Hassett will become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The market's biggest reaction was to $BTC, which is really only related to liquidity issues! Trump wants to support a person who backs cryptocurrency as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve to align monetary policy with him! The market is ultimately dominated by confidence and emotions!

The Federal Reserve officially ends QT

Starting in 2026, it will shift towards a monetary easing policy

The Federal Reserve ended QT in 2020

In 2021, cryptocurrency experienced a surge📈

2026

I believe the bull market will arrive, albeit late👀

Waiting for the wind to come...

The Federal Reserve officially ends QT, BTC breaks through 89000

What is QT?
QT (Quantitative Tightening) is a series of policies by the Federal Reserve to withdraw money, making the money supply decrease and assets easier to depreciate.

What does the end of QT mean?
The Federal Reserve no longer withdraws funds, reducing pressure on the money supply in the market, which will stimulate rises in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Does the end of QT mean the start of QE?
QE (Quantitative Easing) is the opposite of QT, where the Federal Reserve implements a series of policies to inject money, increasing the money supply in the market and making assets easier to appreciate. Typically, QE will start some time after QT ends, but this also depends on circumstances, and it won't necessarily begin immediately.

When will QE start?
This depends on the economic conditions (inflation, employment), and we should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10.