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Today (May 14, 2026, Thursday) is the markup hearing day for the Clarity Act / Digital Asset Market Transparency Act by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee.
This is a critical step for the crypto market structure bill, which has faced multiple delays due to issues like stablecoin yields, DeFi regulation, and conflicts of interest. Today's agenda includes reviewing the updated text (released on May 12) and addressing over 100 amendments.
#BTC
This is a critical step for the crypto market structure bill, which has faced multiple delays due to issues like stablecoin yields, DeFi regulation, and conflicts of interest. Today's agenda includes reviewing the updated text (released on May 12) and addressing over 100 amendments.
#BTC
With the CPI coming in higher than expected, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rising and could test the upper edge of this massive triangle. If it breaks through that resistance, US stocks will face significant pressure.
Currently, that upper edge is positioned at 4.6.
Bitcoin has an inverse correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. #BTC
Currently, that upper edge is positioned at 4.6.
Bitcoin has an inverse correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield. #BTC
Recently, there's been a lot of chatter about Bitcoin flipping from bear to bull. If 60k is the bottom, then this bear market is quite unique; we haven't really seen capitulation or despair, and there's even a bit of noise.
In terms of the external environment, the risks in the US stock market are glaringly obvious; it's just a matter of time. I've even heard that the gals at KTV are starting to recommend stocks.
The trading market is feeling a bit like a party. #BTC
In terms of the external environment, the risks in the US stock market are glaringly obvious; it's just a matter of time. I've even heard that the gals at KTV are starting to recommend stocks.
The trading market is feeling a bit like a party. #BTC
The CME BTC weekly close is in, and we can look at it from two angles:
One is that the current bounce has returned to the area of the previous round's bottom wick, which is clearly a resistance zone.
Two, from a candlestick perspective, the weekly chart first dipped down and then spiked up, and this kind of tangled line structure generally has a higher probability of being bearish. #BTC
《普通人的加密货币交易手册》2.6版免费领取！
One is that the current bounce has returned to the area of the previous round's bottom wick, which is clearly a resistance zone.
Two, from a candlestick perspective, the weekly chart first dipped down and then spiked up, and this kind of tangled line structure generally has a higher probability of being bearish. #BTC
《普通人的加密货币交易手册》2.6版免费领取！
4 major reasons the Bitcoin is at risk of topping out. #BTC
青梅煮币
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Green Tea Boiling Coins: The Probability of Bitcoin Reaching a Peak is Increasing
The previous article (Bitcoin might be entering the 5th wave of this upward trend and the conditions for a peak) suggested that the market could see a rally; we've already experienced a surge, and the risk of Bitcoin hitting a peak is increasing for the following reasons:
1. Leverage Risk
1. The Open Interest (OI) / Market Cap ratio across the network is the classic leverage risk indicator, typically ranging from 2% to 3.5%. Anything above 3.5% is high risk and prone to a washout; today's value is 3.8%.
2. Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio (indicator of projected leverage)
The higher the value → the more aggressive the leverage used, the greater the market risk (small fluctuations can easily trigger a liquidation).
1. Leverage Risk
1. The Open Interest (OI) / Market Cap ratio across the network is the classic leverage risk indicator, typically ranging from 2% to 3.5%. Anything above 3.5% is high risk and prone to a washout; today's value is 3.8%.
2. Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio (indicator of projected leverage)
The higher the value → the more aggressive the leverage used, the greater the market risk (small fluctuations can easily trigger a liquidation).
Saylor hints that MicroStrategy might offload BTC to cover dividends. (Q1 loss of $12.54 billion)
#BTC
#BTC
Buffett's latest interview: The US stock market feels like a casino right now. "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now."
The US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow in the past week (roughly from April 26 to May 2), marking the first weekly net outflow in about three months (since the end of January).
--- This suggests that short-term institutional/investor sentiment is turning cautious or taking profits.
#BTC
--- This suggests that short-term institutional/investor sentiment is turning cautious or taking profits.
#BTC
There's not much to say about the intraday action, but on a macro level, keep an eye on the market turning bearish around the Federal Reserve Chair transition.
Chair Powell's term ends on: 2026-05-15.
Historically, before and after the Fed Chair transition, the market (especially US stocks like the S&P 500) tends to dip or show increased volatility in the short term, with an average maximum drawdown of about -5% in the first month.
Chair Powell's term ends on: 2026-05-15.
Historically, before and after the Fed Chair transition, the market (especially US stocks like the S&P 500) tends to dip or show increased volatility in the short term, with an average maximum drawdown of about -5% in the first month.
The analysis from yesterday morning in the group was pretty spot on; the Bitcoin bounce isn't over yet. The basic logic is threefold:
First, the monthly candlestick is looking solid, still has the momentum to test upward pressure.
Second, the daily chart has pulled back to the logarithmic downtrend line without breaking it—when it stays above that line after a long drop, the chances of a bounce increase.
Third, we’re seeing a 4-hour bullish divergence near the downtrend line.
After a bullish daily close, the probability of the bounce pushing into the 5th wave to break 79500 has increased. To confirm a top, we’ll need at least a daily bearish divergence. #BTC
First, the monthly candlestick is looking solid, still has the momentum to test upward pressure.
Second, the daily chart has pulled back to the logarithmic downtrend line without breaking it—when it stays above that line after a long drop, the chances of a bounce increase.
Third, we’re seeing a 4-hour bullish divergence near the downtrend line.
After a bullish daily close, the probability of the bounce pushing into the 5th wave to break 79500 has increased. To confirm a top, we’ll need at least a daily bearish divergence. #BTC
BTC Options Update: There’s been a surge in large-scale call selling, indicating that institutions/whales are closing out their lower positions (longs) and setting up resistance above (selling Calls).
Chart Insight: Call Blocked (23.19%) represents the highest share, which is the standout signal. Blocked on Greeks.live refers to substantial Block Trades (institutional large orders, typically off the public order book, executed directly). A significant amount of Call Blocked suggests that institutions/market makers are aggressively selling call options (selling Calls), which is generally interpreted as a bearish stance or an effort to cap any upward rebounds (since selling Calls is essentially bearish or neutral, collecting premiums while assuming the risk of price increases). #BTC
Chart Insight: Call Blocked (23.19%) represents the highest share, which is the standout signal. Blocked on Greeks.live refers to substantial Block Trades (institutional large orders, typically off the public order book, executed directly). A significant amount of Call Blocked suggests that institutions/market makers are aggressively selling call options (selling Calls), which is generally interpreted as a bearish stance or an effort to cap any upward rebounds (since selling Calls is essentially bearish or neutral, collecting premiums while assuming the risk of price increases). #BTC
青梅煮币
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Bitcoin Might Bottom Out Before the U.S. Midterm Elections
Bitcoin will close the monthly candle tomorrow. If we don't see a major drop today, the MACD histogram for the month will shorten. Of course, this doesn't mean we've hit the bottom, especially since the MACD line is quite far from the zero axis. However, it indicates a slowing down of the downtrend. If we print a new low after this, the chances of hitting the bottom will significantly increase.
We've previously analyzed (Green Plum Boiling Coins: The Relationship Between the U.S. Midterm Elections and Bitcoin) the impact of the U.S. midterm elections on the market. The official election date for the U.S. midterms is November 3, 2026. Based on the current trend, we might complete the bottoming process by September or October.
We've previously analyzed (Green Plum Boiling Coins: The Relationship Between the U.S. Midterm Elections and Bitcoin) the impact of the U.S. midterm elections on the market. The official election date for the U.S. midterms is November 3, 2026. Based on the current trend, we might complete the bottoming process by September or October.
1. The Nasdaq's up 20% in 28 days, which is pretty rare and usually signals a major top or bottom.\n2. The Buffett Indicator (Total US Market Cap / GDP) has hit 227%, a new all-time high (Buffett himself said, “Anything over 200% is playing with fire”).\n3. If the US stock market tanks, will Bitcoin drop?\n\n#BTC
青梅煮币
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Bitcoin might waterfall along with US stocks
Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks is that it follows down but not up; when US stocks rise, Bitcoin doesn't necessarily follow, but when US stocks drop, Bitcoin will undoubtedly drop.
Currently, the US stocks keep hitting new highs, but risks are quietly accumulating:
1. The NASDAQ has surged 20% in 28 days, which is rare historically, often signaling a major top or bottom.
Data: From late March to late April 2026, the NASDAQ index jumped from about 16,500 points to around 19,800 points, with a 28-day gain of approximately 20%.
Historical rarity: The NASDAQ rising over 20% in a single month is very rare, happening only a few times in the past 40 years (like during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2020 pandemic rebound). Such extreme short-term gains typically occur at major bottom reversals (like in 2020) or at the end of bubbles (like in 1999), marking a highly sensitive area for 'major tops or bottoms.'
Currently, the US stocks keep hitting new highs, but risks are quietly accumulating:
1. The NASDAQ has surged 20% in 28 days, which is rare historically, often signaling a major top or bottom.
Data: From late March to late April 2026, the NASDAQ index jumped from about 16,500 points to around 19,800 points, with a 28-day gain of approximately 20%.
Historical rarity: The NASDAQ rising over 20% in a single month is very rare, happening only a few times in the past 40 years (like during the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2020 pandemic rebound). Such extreme short-term gains typically occur at major bottom reversals (like in 2020) or at the end of bubbles (like in 1999), marking a highly sensitive area for 'major tops or bottoms.'
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