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November: Turning point window period, support level determines direction
November will become the "watershed" of the market in 2025, with a core focus on two major events:
1 Technical reversal: Around mid-November, the 50-day moving average (currently $105,000) and the 200-day moving average (currently $98,000) may form a "death cross". Historical data shows that after 4 death crosses in Bitcoin's history, the average pullback within 1 month is 3.2%, but none of them triggered a long-term bear market; rather, they are more of a "local bottom confirmation signal."
2 Macro data guidance: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in November (November 6) and the US CPI data (November 13) will determine the direction of liquidity. If the CPI falls below 3% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve may signal "continued interest rate cuts," driving Bitcoin's rebound; if the CPI exceeds 3.5%, rising interest rate expectations will suppress risk assets.
3 In addition, the "lunar phase cycle" in mid-November is also worth noting - research by analyst LP_NXT shows that the first quarter moon on October 29, 2025, typically corresponds to the start of an upward trend, continuing until the full moon in mid-November. This resonates with the technical expectation of a "local bottom" and may trigger a short-term rebound.
December: Year-end capital games, high probability of a volatile finish.
The market in December will enter a dual game of "capital recovery + layout for next year," and the market characteristics may be:
1. Increased volatility: Hedge funds may lock in profits by closing positions at the end of the year, and retail investors may take profits, which could trigger short-term sharp fluctuations, but institutional funds may take the opportunity to increase their holdings at lower levels, limiting the extent of the pullback.
2 Range consolidation: The expected operating range is $90,000 - $120,000. If the support of $100,000 is maintained in November, a rebound to $115,000 - $120,000 is expected in December; if the support is broken in November, December may test $85,000 - $90,000. 3 Rotation of support sectors: During the high-level consolidation of Bitcoin, altcoins may present structural opportunities, especially for projects related to AI and RWA (Real World Assets), which may attract capital diversion.
For investors, the core strategy in December is "defensive counterattack": controlling the position ratio at 50%-60%, setting a stop-loss line at $90,000 (corresponding to the weekly line breaking below the 50-week moving average), while paying attention to ETF capital flows - if the net inflow exceeds $500 million in a single day, it can be moderately increased; if there is a net outflow for three consecutive days, it is necessary to decisively reduce the position.
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