苹果BLUE

$SENT The head and shoulders pattern can also be referred to as a wedge top, with a reversal success rate of 40%. In the profit and loss chart, of course, entering the market here might present a profit-loss ratio of more than 3 times. However, the market is currently attempting to reverse this head and shoulders pattern, which may slightly lower the win rate. Nonetheless, the mathematical expectation for entering the market is quite positive.

$KITE Bearish on the expansion triangle, bearish on the wedge's third upward breakout failure, there is also a double top, bearish on everything with profit and loss stops as shown in the picture. Although I have many losing positions, in reality, the strategy of entering two and exiting one has been quite good.

This wedge, $UNI , is relatively standard, with a risk-reward ratio of two to one in the profit-taking and stop-loss chart.

$XPL was a bit late, but still has a 40% win rate with a double profit and loss ratio. A profit and loss ratio of 1.9 or 1.8 also maintains the principal with this win rate...

$LQTY Wedge and upper boundary of oscillation range

$LQTY Bearish wedge ~ Short below the low of the big bearish candle, take profit and stop loss as shown, two times profit-loss ratio with a win rate of 40% mathematical expectation 0.2

$APT Wedge bear flag in a downward trend, expected two times profit-loss ratio, take profit and stop loss chart

$Q It looked like a wedge, so I went short, with a risk-reward ratio slightly above 2, a win rate of about 40%. I feel that going short here is reasonable in terms of mathematical expectation, as shown in the take profit and stop loss chart.

$YFI Every day I look at dozens of targets to find trading opportunities, and there are also some missed opportunities. A wedge reversal has a 40% probability to achieve a 2:1 profit-loss ratio with a mathematical expectation of 0.2, as shown in the profit and loss chart.

In the trading market, if the profit and loss ratio is 2:1 (i.e., the average profit is twice the average loss), to achieve stable profits (i.e., the mathematical expectation is positive), the minimum winning rate required is 33.33%.

The calculation principle is as follows:

Let the winning rate be P, and the profit and loss ratio be R (here R=2).

The expected value formula is: expected return = P * R - (1-P) * 1.

Let the expected value be greater than 0: P * 2 - (1-P) > 0.

Solving gives: 2P - 1 + P > 0 → 3P > 1 → P > 1/3 ≈ 33.33%.

Key points:

Critical point: When the winning rate is exactly 33.33%, from a long-term statistical perspective, trading will reach breakeven. Slightly above this value can achieve stable profits.

Strategic significance: This demonstrates the advantage of high profit and loss ratio strategies— even with a low winning rate, profits can still be made. For example, winning just once (earning 2 units) can cover the cost of losing twice (each losing 1 unit).

Important reminder:

This is a theoretical simplified model, assuming zero trading costs and fixed profit and loss. In practice, transaction fees, slippage, etc., need to be considered.

"Stable profits" also rely on strict risk management and emotional discipline to ensure that strategies can be executed consistently over the long term.

In practical applications, to cope with uncertainty, a higher safety margin winning rate than 33.33% is usually required.
I am currently achieving 40% with a two-fold profit and loss ratio and have basically reached a 40% winning rate. Once the volume increases, the winning rate will roughly maintain around 40%. Of course, there is an even higher realm of 47% with a two-fold profit and loss ratio, where a higher Z-score trade can earn an additional 7% winning rate, potentially doubling the profits.

$MAVIA two-hour level wedge, three attempts to break through upward have failed, the market needs to look down for the fair price, two times the profit-loss ratio, take profit and stop loss in the chart

$HYPE The long signal is very strong, both the structure and the signal are bullish. This coin can have a one-to-one profit-loss ratio or a two-to-one profit-loss ratio. In terms of daily lines, there will be more than ten days of upward movement, and the stop loss should be set at the lowest point of yesterday's daily line.

$LAB I was a bit late to play the king, wedge + double top, the mathematical expectation is reasonable so I shorted it, with a two-fold profit-loss ratio for take profit and stop loss as shown in the image

When gold is in a pullback, it can be bought; it’s almost at a new high. If it breaks the new high, it will achieve a two-to-one profit-loss ratio. If someone has done this, they should exit when it breaks the new high. In the past, with such strong declines, there were a large number of institutions placing limit short orders at the new high. If it breaks the new high, they should take profits in a timely manner.

This trade with a two-fold profit-loss ratio has arrived, but this coin can be held for longer. The target is around 0.01 at the extreme. I normally took profits, but if you want to hold it, that's fine too; the structure looks good, still bearish.

$H try a hand, wedge + double bottom, gamble with a 2:1 profit-loss ratio, long position probability 40% mathematical expectation 0.2...

$WET is still running in the expected direction... waiting for a two-fold profit-loss ratio