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The analysis of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December has soared to 89.4%. Basically, it tells you that a rate cut on the 11th is a done deal.

But I want to remind everyone: the market has already "digested" this matter in advance. In the current prices, a significant portion may already include this expectation. Therefore, on the actual announcement day, we should be cautious of the old routine of "news landing and market reversal."

What should we be watching? What exactly does the Federal Reserve say? Are they only cutting this time, or are they hinting at further cuts? This attitude is much more important than the rate cut itself.
How does Powell "smooth things over"? If this big brother's speech reveals even a hint of hesitation, the market may take the opportunity to shake off positions.

Don't rush in right before the news comes out; take it easy. During the expectation phase, it's fine to have some excitement, but when it really lands, think faster than you act.
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12.10 Cryptocurrency Market: A Collective Surge Before the Decision, Interest Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Fluctuations

Today, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a strong rebound, with BTC breaking through the $94,000 mark in the early hours, rising over 4% in 24 hours, currently oscillating around $92,000; ETH led the mainstream coins with an increase of nearly 7%, stabilizing above $3,300, and the fundamentals supporting Fusaka's upgrade have become prominent.

The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached $3.17 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $116 billion, and BTC dominance maintained at 57%. The core driving force comes from the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (with nearly a 90% probability of a 25BP cut), and over $1.36 billion has flowed into cryptocurrency ETFs in December, with institutional funds continuously entering the market.

Positive news continues to emerge from the regulatory front, with simplified compliance for bank cryptocurrency services and Binance obtaining a global license, leading to an ongoing optimization of the industry environment. However, caution is needed regarding fluctuations before the decision is finalized, with resistance for BTC at $94,000-$95,000 and ETH resistance at $3,350-$3,400.

Operational Advice: Reduce leverage and hold light positions before the Federal Reserve decision (December 11, 03:00), focusing on the guidance for the interest rate cut path in 2026 mentioned in the policy statement, and avoid blindly chasing highs. #加密市场反弹

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