Tuan A16

Renowned analyst Willy Woo has indicated that the bear market trend for Bitcoin is still ongoing. According to Odaily, Woo outlines the bear market in three distinct phases.

The first phase marks the onset, where Bitcoin's liquidity collapses, a situation that occurred in the third quarter of 2025, leading to a price decline. As a small-scale asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity changes, often leading the global macroeconomic market into a bear phase months in advance. During this stage, die-hard bulls may claim it's a market correction within a bull run, but they lack concrete evidence of capital inflow, resorting to storytelling instead.

The second phase involves the global stock market entering a bear market. This massive $100 trillion entity moves slowly, akin to a giant supertanker. This represents the mid-stage of Bitcoin's bear market, where all risk assets are declining, confirming the bear market status.

The third phase is when the first signs of recovery appear. Liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize, and investors start returning. The final price drop typically occurs in this phase, either just before or shortly after the peak of capital outflows.

Currently, within this bear market framework, Bitcoin is in the first phase and is about to transition into the second phase.

A recent report indicates that the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cut might surpass market expectations. According to ChainCatcher, the report highlights that while the Fed may struggle to reduce its balance sheet in the short term, the threshold for expanding the balance sheet and quantitative easing has increased. This could lead to monetary-fiscal coordination through larger rate cuts and the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds. The steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to benefit American bank stocks.