圈中大鳄

#比特币升回7万 Ah, that person who lost over 50 million dollars in a single cryptocurrency transaction due to high slippage has finally come forward. 😂
He said that the interface clearly displayed several slippage warnings at that time, indicating that executing this order would cause a significant price impact, but he thought to himself, "It should be... fine, right?" Yet he still accidentally confirmed it—resulting in his assets worth 50.43 million dollars being exchanged for just a few hundred AAVE valued at 36 thousand dollars, marking one of the most disastrous operations in DeFi history.
Even more astonishing, he casually added: **This surprisingly can only rank as the 'second worst trade' in his life**...
Brothers, how rich and confident does this guy have to be to calmly see a red warning on his phone saying "Your 50 million might be reduced to just a few thousand" and still click "Continue"???

#特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声 What is the relationship between the US CPI data and the price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market?

US CPI data influences the cryptocurrency market through three main lines: expectations of Federal Reserve policy, dollar liquidity, and risk appetite. The core is: CPI above expectation → interest rate hike / delayed rate cut → strong dollar, tight liquidity → cryptocurrency prices fall; CPI below expectation → early rate cut → weak dollar, loose liquidity → cryptocurrency prices rise.
1. Core Transmission Logic
CPI → Federal Reserve interest rate expectations → dollar / US Treasury yield → opportunity cost and capital flow of crypto assets (high risk, non-yielding).
2. Three Typical Scenarios (from the perspective of March 2026)
1. CPI higher than expected (persistent inflation) market reaction: heightened expectations for rate hikes / delayed rate cuts, US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. Impact on the cryptocurrency market: opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies rises (higher US Treasury yields). Dollar liquidity tightens, capital flows out of risk assets. Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) drop in the short term, volatility increases. High-leverage contracts are prone to liquidation.
2. CPI lower than expected (cooling inflation) market reaction: early expectations for rate cuts, US Treasury yields decline, dollar weakens. Impact on the cryptocurrency market: opportunity cost declines, capital flows back to risk assets. Dollar liquidity loosens, ETF and institutional buying increases. Mainstream coins rise in the short term, ETH's volatility is usually greater than BTC's.
3. CPI in line with expectations (like in February 2026) market reaction: maintain the original interest rate path (no rate cut in March, high probability of rate cut in June).
Impact on the cryptocurrency market: short-term fluctuations dominate, volatility converges. Focus shifts to non-farm payrolls, core CPI, Middle Eastern oil prices, and other subsequent variables.
3. Actual impact data of February 2026 CPI (2.4%) on the cryptocurrency market: completely in line with expectations, core CPI slows down month-on-month.
Cryptocurrency performance: BTC/ETH exhibits slight fluctuations, with no trending market. The market confirms no rate cut in March and opens the window for a rate cut in June, with a medium-term bullish bias. However, combined with weak non-farm payroll data + risks from Middle Eastern oil prices, sentiment is cautious.
4. Key Variables (determining the intensity of impact) Degree of surprise: the greater the deviation from expectations, the more severe the volatility.
Core CPI vs. Overall CPI: Core has a greater impact on Federal Reserve decisions. Federal Reserve dot plot / speeches: data + guidance jointly price in.
The cryptocurrency market's own cycle: bull market / bear market, leverage levels, ETF capital flows can amplify or offset macro impacts.

#AI交易指南 Tonight, the February core CPI data is coming out……

The quality of this data will determine whether Bitcoin hits 72,000 or retreats to the 68,000 level. Which side do you lean towards?

Both the previous and forecast values are 2.4%, the published value X

I think the published value could be 2.4% or 2.5%, so the impact would be moderate, overall it depends on the guidance from the US stock market.

If the published value is 2.6%, that would be a negative signal, and Bitcoin might test the 68,000 level.

However, I believe the likelihood of a positive outcome is greater, so I will continue to look for opportunities to buy in the evening.

The trend of Ethereum in the early morning once again verifies the fragility of the market. After being blocked at the 2088 line, the price quickly fell back and has effectively broken below the 2050 mark, indicating that the bulls' short-term attempt to push up has failed, and the market has returned to a bearish dominance.

From a technical perspective, the 2088 line is not only the peak of a previously dense trading area but also a psychological resistance level that the market has attempted to break through multiple times without success. This rise and fall, especially after breaking through the 2050 support, has formed a small false breakout pattern. In a weak market, this is usually a signal for continued decline, meaning that the main capital has no intention of supporting at high levels, but rather took advantage of the rise to complete distribution. On the daily chart, if the price continues to be pressured below 2050, the MACD momentum bar shows signs of weakening again, and the space for decline may further open up.

In terms of operations, the focus should be on shorting during rebounds. The primary short-term support to watch below is near 2015. If this position is lost, it is highly likely to accelerate the decline to the previous low area of 1980. As long as the price has not effectively recovered and stabilized above 2050, any rebound in the market may only be a bearish correction, and blindly entering to catch the bottom is not recommended. #特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声

#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 BTC evening trend clearly weakens, the price fell continuously after reaching a high of 71262, with hourly candles consistently showing bearish signals, bullish momentum has exhausted, and a peak has been reached in the short term; any rebound presents a shorting opportunity.

Currently, bulls have no strength to counterattack, and selling pressure at high levels is evident. As long as it does not stabilize above 71262, the overall strategy is to short on rebounds and follow the trend downwards; it is not recommended to chase long positions against the trend.

1. Short entry points (double opportunity, conservative + right-side)

1. Short on rebound (conservative): Enter a short position when the price rebounds to the 71000–71100 range, showing signs of stalling, upper shadows, and declining volume.

2. Short on breakdown (right-side): Enter a short position when the price directly breaks below the 70700 support, confirming the breakdown to follow the trend downwards, which has a higher win rate.

2. Stop-loss settings (uniform defense, no holding positions)

Set a uniform stop-loss above 71300. If there is an effective breakout above the previous high, the bearish logic becomes invalid; strictly adhere to the stop-loss without holding onto the trade.

3. Target levels (gradual profit-taking, securing profits)

• First target: 70600 (first short-term support, can reduce position by half upon reaching)

• Second target: 70400–70200 (core profit-taking range, exit all remaining positions)

4. Trading rhythm and risk control (key points)

This strategy is for ultra-short cycles, only engaging in quick evening fluctuations, fast in and out, not holding positions overnight.

• No heavy positions, no holding, no chasing up or down

• Strict adherence to entry points and take-profit levels

• Immediately exit if stop-loss levels are broken, do not hold onto illusions

Summary

71262 has become a short-term small peak; the rebound at 71000–71100 or breaking below 70700 are both quality short points, with the stop-loss above 71300, targets at 70600, 70400–70200, aiming for quick trades in the short term.

This morning, Bitcoin experienced a strong surge, reaching a peak of 70550, setting a new high for this round of rebound. We initially planned to seize a short position this morning, but the strong continuation of the market led to a minor loss upon entry. Currently, the price has retraced to near our short entry point. Considering the overall bias remains bullish, the short position can continue to be held while waiting for a pullback confirmation, but the overall mindset should maintain respect for the bulls.

Currently, on the four-hour level, this surge successfully broke through the resistance zone of 69300-698000 USD, creating a new high since the rebound from the low of 65800. As long as the price does not fall below the support level converted from the previous high of 69000 USD, the rebound structure remains intact. The MACD golden cross is still expanding, and the green bars have not significantly shortened, indicating that the upward momentum has not exhausted. On the daily level, the price has risen above the EMA15 moving average, and the upward channel is gradually opening. On-chain data shows that whales are still increasing their positions, and the capital inflow trend in mainstream coins remains unchanged.

Today, key attention is on the 69000-69500 USD support area. As long as it stays above this area, the market remains under the control of bulls. The short position can continue to be held, aiming for profit-taking in batches at 69000-68500 USD, with the stop-loss moved up to protect above 70800. If the price stabilizes above 69500, bulls will gather strength to launch an attack towards 71000-72000, at which point consider flipping to a long position. Strong support below is focused on the 68500-68800 area; as long as it does not break 67800, the mid-term bullish view remains unchanged. #国际油价下跌逾10%

#亚洲股市暴跌 Night Market Analysis

After the intraday BTC dipped to 65500 and stabilized, it rebounded, touching 68400 and then falling back, now showing a range consolidation.

The hourly Bollinger Bands have expanded, with the price briefly breaking the lower band and quickly recovering, breaking through the middle band but facing resistance at the upper band. The rebound is not a reversal; the long-term outlook remains bearish.

Operation Suggestions
BTC: Short at 68800-70500, target 65700-64200
ETH: Short at 2030-2100, target 1920-1870

#国际油价突破100美元 3.9 Bitcoin Afternoon Analysis
The 1-hour chart of Bitcoin shows that after the price reached 67749.7, it faced pressure, and the short-term rebound momentum is weakening. From a technical perspective, the price has continuously retreated from the high of 71530.4, with MA7 and MA30 in a bearish arrangement, and the short-term moving averages are turning downward, putting pressure on the price; although the previous low of 65569.2 formed temporary support, the rebound did not break through the moving average resistance, indicating a weak rebound.

On the news front, combined with expectations of tight macro liquidity, market sentiment is cautious, and there is insufficient willingness for funds to chase long positions. In summary, the short-term price is likely to continue fluctuating downward.
Pay attention to the effectiveness of support at the 67000 level; if it breaks down, it will further test the previous low of 65500. It is recommended to operate based on the resistance level of 68000 for short positions.

Operational Suggestion: 68000-68500 short, target 66000-66500

At 3 a.m., my phone kept ringing. A friend from Xiaoshan was anxiously sending a voice message: "Big shark, I put all my 10,000 U in a full position with 20x leverage, the pullback is only 5%, and the money is gone. What’s going on?"
I looked at his trading record; he had opened a full position with 20x leverage and didn’t even set a stop loss.
Many people mistakenly believe that "full position = can withstand losses," but the reality is quite the opposite. Poor full position trading leads to faster losses than incremental positions.
1. The key to full position liquidation: it’s not about leverage, but about position weight. For example, with a 1,000 U account:
If you use 900 U with 10x leverage, if the market moves against you by 5%, you’ll be liquidated immediately, and your account will be zero; but if you use 100 U with 10x leverage, you would need a 50% move to be liquidated. The problem with my friend was that he had risked 95% of his capital; a slight pullback caused him to be liquidated.
2. Three principles that allowed me to do full position trading for half a year without liquidation while doubling my funds, keeping each single position under 20% of total capital.
Assuming you have a 10,000 U account, the maximum you can invest at one time is 2,000 U. Even if you misjudge the market direction, with a 10% stop loss, you would only lose a maximum of 200 U, which wouldn’t hurt your capital, and you would always have a chance to rebound. A single loss should never exceed 3% of the total position.
For example, using 2,000 U with 10x leverage, setting a 1.5% stop loss in advance means that a loss of 300 U is exactly 3% of the total capital. Even if there are several consecutive wrong operations, it won’t cause significant damage. Do not open positions in a fluctuating market; do not chase high profits.
Only open positions in breakout trends; do not rashly enter sideways markets, no matter how tempting they seem. After opening a position, never add to it to avoid emotional interference.
3. The true purpose of a full position: is to buffer, not to gamble.
The original intention of full position design is to leave room for error in market fluctuations, but the premise is to try with a light position and strictly enforce risk control. Once, a fan who had monthly liquidations before meeting me executed these three principles and turned 5,000 U into 80,000 U in 3 months. He said: "I used to think a full position was a gamble for my life; now I understand that a full position is for stability." The secret to survival in the circle is not who makes money faster, but who lasts longer.
Bet less on direction, focus more on position control; slow is fast.
Opportunities are always there, but they won’t wait for anyone. If you also want to seize opportunities accurately and not lose your direction, come and join me in planning! #加密市场反弹

#伊朗新领袖 From a technical perspective, the moving average system still maintains a standard upward divergence structure, providing layers of support for the price. The daily level pullback is more of a process of confirming the retest, aiming to probe the strength of the bottom support. Currently, the candlestick pattern still maintains a typical bullish structure, with the upward trend intact.
Focusing on the four-hour level, today’s trend closely aligns with our expectations. After the price retested the low of 71700 in the afternoon, it quickly stabilized and showed a strong rebound, while the key support zone below is located above 71400, which basically aligns with our intraday assessment of the bottom support range. After this round of retest confirmation, it has basically verified the effectiveness of the lower support of the fluctuation range, eliminating hidden dangers for subsequent rises. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands indicator continues to maintain an opening shape, indicating that after consolidation, there is still upward momentum, and the overall trend continues to operate steadily within the upward channel.

In terms of operations, the nighttime strategy remains unchanged, continuing to focus on going long. Since the retest has basically confirmed the support's effectiveness, any pullback close to the support zone is a good opportunity to set up long positions. It is recommended to rely on the confirmed effective support area of 71400-71700 as defense, and to enter long positions at the right time, targeting the intraday high and the resistance level above the channel.
At night, Bitcoin can be bought in the range of 71600-72000, targeting 74000.
At night, Ethereum can be bought in the range of 2070-2090. Targeting 2200#加密市场反弹 .

Market Analysis of Bitcoin on the Afternoon of the 3.5th

From the 15-minute chart, BTC experienced a technical rebound after a dip in the morning, temporarily stabilizing near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating some short-term bullish recovery momentum:
Short-term perspective: The price rebounded from the support level at the lower band near 72143, and is currently gradually approaching the middle band (72534). With the accompanying volume, it's likely that there will be a slight rebound in the afternoon, testing the resistance range of 72800-73000 above.
General direction assessment: There is a short-term rebound, but the core trend remains bearish. From the overall shape of the Bollinger Bands, the upper band continues to curve downwards, and the middle band has also started to flatten and press down, indicating that the mid-term bearish strength has not dissipated. The current rebound seems more like a technical correction during a downtrend rather than a trend reversal.

Short-term: If it retests the support range of 71800-72000, further positions can be built for a second rebound.
General trend: Maintain the bearish outlook; a rebound is an opportunity to go short. The key support below remains at the integer level of 72000, and a breakthrough below 71500 would completely open up a downward trend. #加密市场反弹 #特朗普15%全球关税将于本周生效

#市场过度杠杆已被出清 The day after, without any warning (setting aside the sharp decline of gold and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown), Bitcoin made a strong rebound, followed by a high-level plunge...

Today, Bitcoin directly broke below the 110,000 mark, testing the 107,000 level again, with key support located around 106,000. From the current European session, Bitcoin is consolidating without much rebound strength, and the trend remains weak, with short-term focus on the resistance around 109,000.

Bitcoin: Aggressive traders can take a small position in the 108,400-108,900 area, while conservative traders can wait until above 108,800 to enter, with a target looking towards the 105,000-106,000 area. #加密市场回调

#加密市场回调 Ethereum's recent trend has shown a critical position, and analysis indicates that there are good buying opportunities in the 3830-3800 range. This price range may become a short-term support point, and it is worth investors' close attention.

If this strategy is implemented, the short-term target price can look towards the 3900-3950 range. Furthermore, if this resistance can be effectively broken, the ETH price is likely to continue rising and challenge the 4000 integer mark.

To control risk, it is recommended to set a 30-point stop loss after entering the market to ensure capital safety. In the current market environment, accurately grasping the entry points and risk control is particularly important.

#加密市场观察 price comparison has once again dipped to the low point of 109500, then rebounded to the high point of 111900 where it faced resistance and fell back, overall still in a weak pressure pattern.
The selling pressure above is heavy, and the bullish strength is clearly insufficient. The current low-level fluctuations are more inclined to be a consolidation pattern during a downward process, without a clear reversal signal.

Big coin resistance at 112000, looking at the range around 113000, with a focus on 109500 and 108500.
Second coin resistance at 3850, looking at the range around 3900, with a focus on 3670 and 3600.

#美联储降息预期升温
From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows a decrease in momentum after rising to 124000, with clear resistance at the upper Bollinger Band. The K-line has three consecutive bearish candles returning to the middle band, indicating weak short-term rebounds.

The MACD continues with a bearish crossover at a high level, with green volume increasing steadily, suggesting a bearish trend signal and insufficient bullish momentum!

Bitcoin: 122900-123500 sell, target 120800-121500
Ethereum: 4390-4450 sell, target 4250-4320

#BNB创新高
First, look at the moving average levels: MA5, MA10, and MA20 show a clear bearish arrangement. The short-term moving averages act like a "bearish wall" that firmly suppresses the price. Every rebound is ruthlessly pushed back by the moving averages, and the bulls can't even break through the most basic moving averages, which is enough to illustrate that the short-term trend is completely dominated by bears.

Next, examine the candlestick structure: The downtrend that started from the high of 126,199.6 is extremely smooth, with prices continuously reaching new lows. After falling from 126199 to 123084, the rebound strength is so weak that it can't even break through the recent MA5. This rhythm of "decline - weak rebound - new lows" is a typical characteristic of a bearish trend, and each rebound is a signal for bears to enter the market.

Operational thoughts:
You can consider setting up a short position with light holdings when the price retraces to around 123700-124000, aiming for a pullback (but not for too long; if it stabilizes at a key support level, you may consider setting up a long position).

#Token2049新加坡 Big Coin Daily Strategy Overview

Looking back at yesterday's market, Big Coin experienced a tug-of-war between bulls and bears on the daily chart. After touching a low of 112600, it rebounded and closed above the 114000 mark, indicating some buying support below. In terms of technical indicators, the pattern is gradually changing: the daily MACD shows a decrease in bearish momentum, suggesting that the downward pressure is weakening.

The four-hour MACD also shows a decrease in bullish momentum, indicating insufficient upward strength in the short term. In terms of operations, we can closely monitor several key levels: for daily support, if MA30 breaks below, look at 111150; for resistance, if 115950 breaks above, look at 117550. For the short-term four-hour support, if MA90 breaks below, look at MA200; for resistance, if 115150 breaks above, look at 116350. The market is currently in a consolidation phase before making a directional choice.

Intraday Trading Suggestions
For the short term, go long near 112600-113400 with a target of 115000-115600.
For the short term, go short near 116100-116700 with a target of 113500-112900.

#美联储官员集体发声 Many people have been asking me to help them find a way out these days. Hey, I told you but you didn't listen, you listened but didn't act, and you are unwilling to add more margin, so we can only hedge. I don't know what you are thinking #币安HODLer空投FF #巨鲸动向 .

#美联储官员集体发声 9.28 Daily Trend Analysis

Happy weekend! Currently, the market has shown some rebound, but the overall trend is basically in line with expectations. The major asset has not yet fallen to the real demand zone, and there is a high probability of breaking 1075. Without testing the bottom in advance, following the 4-hour level short positions is advisable. Of course, there are opportunities for both long and short positions during the day. In the consolidation phase, it is generally fine to sell high and buy low, but defensive measures need to be in place!

Today, pay attention to the level of 109419 for the major asset. Only if it stabilizes at this level can there be a chance for further upward movement. The pressure above can be noted around the levels of 109750-110440-111300!

If it cannot stabilize at the level of 109419 today, then look at the bottom of the consolidation zone at 108570. As long as it does not break below this level, there will still be a rebound. If it breaks, then the support levels to watch below are around 107230-106160-1050120!

For Ether, pay attention to the level of 4005 today. Only if it stabilizes at this level can the 1-hour level continue to rise. The pressure above can be noted around the levels of 4032-4066-4106!

If it cannot stabilize at the level of 4005, the 1-hour level will start to adjust. Look for support below at 3940. If it does not break this level, the price will still go up. If it breaks 3940, this rebound will end, and the support levels below to note are around 3840-3870-3822!

For SOL, pay attention to the level of 202 today. As long as it does not break this level on a pullback, the 1-hour level is still in a rebound trend, continuing upwards. The pressure above can be noted around the levels of 205-211-216!

If it breaks below the level of 202 on a pullback, then the adjustment continues, and the support levels below to watch are around 191-185-180!

#巨鲸动向

#加密市场回调 The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with $BTC, $ETH, and SOL all showing notable declines. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has fallen below the 120-day moving average, raising concerns about the trend structure. On a monthly basis, there are even more warnings, as Bitcoin, after three consecutive years of increases, is forming a typical "double top" pattern, which is often seen as one of the key signals of a market peak.

In terms of the macro environment, while the much-anticipated interest rate cut policy has arrived as expected, it has produced a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, with positive news becoming a reason to sell after being realized. Multiple unfavorable factors have collectively put significant pressure on the market. Even though we are not at an absolute peak, various signs indicate that we may very well be at the tail end of this market cycle.

The market follows basic principles; no asset can rise indefinitely, and excessive gains are always accompanied by corrections, just as deep declines will trigger rebounds. However, many investors remain trapped in the fantasy of continuous rises, failing to adequately recognize potential risks.

Operational strategy suggests maintaining a cautious stance, with Bitcoin possibly continuing to decline after a rebound in the 110500-111000 range, targeting the area around 107500-106000; Ethereum may also continue to seek a bottom after a rebound in the 4050-4100 range, with support below in the 3800-3600 zone. In this uncertain market environment, risk management is particularly important. #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作